2012 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2012

j-mart

161.34

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich

89.58

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.10 points left. Optimal 191.44 vs. actual 161.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	30.60	Drew Brees	30.60
WR	Reggie Wayne	35.70	Antonio Brown	12.24
WR	Roddy White	8.80	Reggie Wayne	35.70
WR	Antonio Brown	12.24	Roddy White	8.80
RB	Jackie Battle	2.70	Ahmad Bradshaw	30.90
RB	Jamaal Charles	19.10	Jamaal Charles	19.10
TE	Heath Miller	6.10	Jacob Tamme	8.00
W/R	Randall Cobb	19.48	Randall Cobb	19.48
K	Robbie Gould	11.00	Robbie Gould	11.00
DEF	Ravens	15.62	Ravens	15.62

Carried by One Guy: Reggie Wayne, 35.70 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.90 points left. Optimal 97.48 vs. actual 89.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Christian Ponder	17.42	Christian Ponder	17.42
WR	Andre Johnson	2.00	Brandon LaFell	5.90
WR	Eddie Royal	4.42	Brandon Stokley	8.00
WR	Brandon LaFell	5.90	Eddie Royal	4.42
RB	Willis McGahee	10.70	Willis McGahee	10.70
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	6.40	Maurice Jones-Drew	6.40
TE	Vernon Davis	15.10	Vernon Davis	15.10
W/R	Brandon Stokley	8.00	Ronnie Brown	9.90
K	Greg Zuerlein	7.00	Greg Zuerlein	7.00
DEF	49ers	12.64	49ers	12.64

Carried by One Guy: Christian Ponder, 17.42 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2012

Big Hut

104.48

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

154.24

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.32 points left. Optimal 104.80 vs. actual 104.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	20.20	Matt Ryan	20.20
WR	Santana Moss	15.00	Santana Moss	15.00
WR	Devery Henderson	24.30	Devery Henderson	24.30
WR	Pierre Garcon	3.90	Pierre Garcon	3.90
RB	Steven Jackson	7.60	Steven Jackson	7.60
RB	Donald Brown	12.20	Donald Brown	12.20
TE	Fred Davis	7.90	Fred Davis	7.90
W/R	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	2.10	Jacquizz Rodgers	2.42
K	Mason Crosby	3.00	Mason Crosby	3.00
DEF	Patriots	8.28	Patriots	8.28

Carried by One Guy: Devery Henderson, 24.30 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.60 points left. Optimal 165.84 vs. actual 154.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	20.26	Eli Manning	20.26
WR	Marques Colston	37.60	Victor Cruz	25.50
WR	Victor Cruz	25.50	Marques Colston	37.60
WR	Torrey Smith	5.30	Mario Manningham	10.60
RB	Fred Jackson	3.90	Daniel Thomas	10.20
RB	Ray Rice	14.30	Ray Rice	14.30
TE	Dennis Pitta	3.70	Dennis Pitta	3.70
W/R	Michael Crabtree	22.30	Michael Crabtree	22.30
K	Phil Dawson	10.00	Phil Dawson	10.00
DEF	Falcons	11.38	Falcons	11.38

Carried by One Guy: Marques Colston, 37.60 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2012

Horgan

87.74

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms

122.43

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.22 points left. Optimal 114.96 vs. actual 87.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	6.88	Michael Vick	12.60
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	13.20	Jeremy Kerley	11.90
WR	DeSean Jackson	7.80	Larry Fitzgerald	13.20
WR	Brian Hartline	7.90	Brian Hartline	7.90
RB	Michael Turner	13.90	Michael Turner	13.90
RB	Ryan Williams	4.30	Rashard Mendenhall	17.60
TE	Antonio Gates	3.40	Owen Daniels	15.90
W/R	Rashard Mendenhall	17.60	Sidney Rice	9.20
K	Justin Tucker	7.00	Justin Tucker	7.00
DEF	Cardinals	5.76	Cardinals	5.76

Carried by One Guy: Rashard Mendenhall, 17.60 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.80 points left. Optimal 127.23 vs. actual 122.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	7.84	Cam Newton	7.84
WR	Robert Meachem	20.20	Robert Meachem	20.20
WR	James Jones	18.60	James Jones	18.60
WR	Jeremy Maclin	6.40	Jeremy Maclin	6.40
RB	Frank Gore	18.60	Frank Gore	18.60
RB	Chris Johnson	1.40	Michael Bush	6.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	10.30	Kyle Rudolph	10.30
W/R	Stevan Ridley	21.10	Stevan Ridley	21.10
K	Matt Bryant	8.00	Matt Bryant	8.00
DEF	Vikings	9.99	Vikings	9.99

Carried by One Guy: Stevan Ridley, 21.10 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2012

Kev

112.05

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

The Big Tebowskis

129.30

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.08 points left. Optimal 117.13 vs. actual 112.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kevin Kolb	9.76	Kevin Kolb	9.76
WR	Malcom Floyd	15.30	Demaryius Thomas	22.50
WR	Dwayne Bowe	9.00	Kendall Wright	11.10
WR	Demaryius Thomas	22.50	Malcom Floyd	15.30
RB	Adrian Peterson	11.80	Adrian Peterson	11.80
RB	Marshawn Lynch	9.90	Marshawn Lynch	9.90
TE	Greg Olsen	4.70	Greg Olsen	4.70
W/R	Darren Sproles	7.22	Anquan Boldin	10.20
K	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00
DEF	Seahawks	15.87	Seahawks	15.87

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 22.50 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Percy Harvin scored 29.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.84 points left. Optimal 140.14 vs. actual 129.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	26.38	Peyton Manning	26.38
WR	Jordy Nelson	3.90	Andrew Hawkins	7.70
WR	Danny Amendola	5.18	Davone Bess	5.90
WR	Percy Harvin	29.60	Percy Harvin	29.60
RB	Arian Foster	25.30	Shaun Draughn	6.64
RB	Brandon Bolden	5.90	Arian Foster	25.30
TE	Brent Celek	8.40	Brent Celek	8.40
W/R	Davone Bess	5.90	David Wilson	11.48
K	Shayne Graham	10.00	Shayne Graham	10.00
DEF	Bengals	8.74	Bengals	8.74

Carried by One Guy: Percy Harvin, 29.60 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2012

zyg

157.12

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

107.46

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.30 points left. Optimal 168.42 vs. actual 157.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	20.16	Philip Rivers	20.16
WR	Wes Welker	25.00	Alshon Jeffery	9.00
WR	Brandon Marshall	28.40	Wes Welker	25.00
WR	Jerome Simpson	0.00	Brandon Marshall	28.40
RB	Matt Forte	15.70	Ryan Mathews	22.90
RB	Ryan Mathews	22.90	Matt Forte	15.70
TE	Tony Gonzalez	26.80	Tony Gonzalez	26.80
W/R	Ronnie Hillman	1.80	Toby Gerhart	4.10
K	David Akers	7.00	David Akers	7.00
DEF	Texans	9.36	Texans	9.36

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Marshall, 28.40 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.40 points left. Optimal 123.86 vs. actual 107.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	14.20	Ben Roethlisberger	14.20
WR	Nate Washington	6.60	Julio Jones	20.50
WR	Stevie Johnson	6.90	Nate Washington	6.60
WR	Julio Jones	20.50	Stevie Johnson	6.90
RB	DeAngelo Williams	-1.40	DeAngelo Williams	-1.40
RB	LeSean McCoy	16.00	LeSean McCoy	16.00
TE	Rob Gronkowski	5.50	Rob Gronkowski	5.50
W/R	Brandon Gibson	4.80	Josh Gordon	21.20
K	Garrett Hartley	6.00	Garrett Hartley	6.00
DEF	Bears	28.36	Bears	28.36

Carried by One Guy: Bears, 28.36 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 2 – 8, 2012

Josh

98.57

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

89.68

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.08 points left. Optimal 109.65 vs. actual 98.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	18.72	Jay Cutler	19.88
WR	Steve Smith	6.00	Eric Decker	10.10
WR	Eric Decker	10.10	A.J. Green	17.00
WR	A.J. Green	17.00	Chris Givens	12.32
RB	Jonathan Stewart	4.10	Alfred Morris	16.00
RB	Alfred Morris	16.00	Jonathan Stewart	4.10
TE	Jimmy Graham	0.90	Martellus Bennett	4.50
W/R	Domenik Hixon	8.00	Domenik Hixon	8.00
K	Lawrence Tynes	11.00	Lawrence Tynes	11.00
DEF	Giants	6.75	Giants	6.75

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 18.72 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.28 points left. Optimal 103.96 vs. actual 89.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	25.10	Andrew Luck	30.88
WR	Brandon Lloyd	4.90	Andre Roberts	6.70
WR	Mike Wallace	2.70	Armon Binns	4.10
WR	Andre Roberts	6.70	Brandon Lloyd	4.90
RB	Reggie Bush	14.20	Trent Richardson	21.30
RB	Trent Richardson	21.30	Reggie Bush	14.20
TE	Jermichael Finley	2.60	Scott Chandler	4.00
W/R	C.J. Spiller	2.40	Kendall Hunter	8.10
K	Mike Nugent	7.00	Mike Nugent	7.00
DEF	Eagles	2.78	Eagles	2.78

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 25.10 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 18.72; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–0	3.818	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Big Hut	0–5	1.455	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Horgan	1–4	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Multiple Gore-Gasms	4–1	2.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	3–2	2.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	2–3	1.545	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
zyg	1–4	2.545	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Kev	2–3	3.273	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Josh	3–2	2.000	+5.5	+0.500	2 / 1
The Big Tebowskis	3–2	3.000	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
SuckMyVick	2–3	2.273	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Early Morning Doucet	4–1	3.000	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0

2012 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Regular

zyg lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5