2012 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2012

j-mart

125.12

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Big Hut

154.92

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 125.12 vs. actual 125.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	18.48	Drew Brees	18.48
WR	Reggie Wayne	16.20	Golden Tate	7.60
WR	Roddy White	8.20	Reggie Wayne	16.20
WR	Golden Tate	7.60	Roddy White	8.20
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	18.90	Ahmad Bradshaw	18.90
RB	Jamaal Charles	12.70	Jamaal Charles	12.70
TE	Heath Miller	9.30	Heath Miller	9.30
W/R	Randall Cobb	11.62	Randall Cobb	11.62
K	Justin Tucker	11.00	Justin Tucker	11.00
DEF	Ravens	11.12	Ravens	11.12

Carried by One Guy: Ahmad Bradshaw, 18.90 points (15.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.66 points left. Optimal 171.58 vs. actual 154.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	17.42	Matt Ryan	17.42
WR	Devery Henderson	1.10	Demaryius Thomas	16.20
WR	Calvin Johnson	26.00	Calvin Johnson	26.00
WR	Demaryius Thomas	16.20	Pierre Garcon	17.30
RB	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	22.30	Doug Martin	19.30
RB	Doug Martin	19.30	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	22.30
TE	Greg Olsen	7.00	Greg Olsen	7.00
W/R	Steven Jackson	15.90	Jacquizz Rodgers	16.36
K	Mason Crosby	3.00	Mason Crosby	3.00
DEF	Patriots	26.70	Patriots	26.70

Carried by One Guy: Patriots, 26.70 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2012

Fischer

131.26

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Josh

138.46

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.80 points left. Optimal 146.06 vs. actual 131.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	23.16	Eli Manning	23.16
WR	Marques Colston	11.60	Victor Cruz	11.10
WR	Victor Cruz	11.10	Torrey Smith	19.90
WR	Torrey Smith	19.90	Marques Colston	11.60
RB	Ray Rice	20.40	Mikel Leshoure	12.90
RB	Mikel Leshoure	12.90	Ray Rice	20.40
TE	Joel Dreessen	1.30	Martellus Bennett	5.90
W/R	Michael Crabtree	4.10	Daniel Thomas	14.30
K	Connor Barth	12.00	Connor Barth	12.00
DEF	Steelers	14.80	Steelers	14.80

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Eli Manning, 23.16 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 33.42; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 41.52 points left. Optimal 179.98 vs. actual 138.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	33.42	Tom Brady	33.42
WR	Steve Smith	8.00	Danario Alexander	9.90
WR	Eric Decker	8.40	A.J. Green	16.70
WR	A.J. Green	16.70	Chris Givens	22.72
RB	Jonathan Stewart	4.60	Shane Vereen	20.30
RB	Alfred Morris	19.30	Alfred Morris	19.30
TE	Jimmy Graham	5.30	Dustin Keller	14.90
W/R	T.Y. Hilton	20.02	T.Y. Hilton	20.02
K	Lawrence Tynes	9.00	Lawrence Tynes	9.00
DEF	Giants	13.72	Giants	13.72

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 33.42 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2012

Demich

160.78

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev

123.62

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.02 points left. Optimal 171.80 vs. actual 160.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	30.34	Tony Romo	30.34
WR	Andre Johnson	25.30	Dez Bryant	31.10
WR	Dez Bryant	31.10	Brandon LaFell	15.50
WR	Brandon LaFell	15.50	Andre Johnson	25.30
RB	Ronnie Hillman	0.90	Ronnie Brown	5.90
RB	Lance Dunbar	4.98	Rashad Jennings	11.00
TE	Jermaine Gresham	12.10	Jermaine Gresham	12.10
W/R	Brandon Stokley	8.20	Brandon Stokley	8.20
K	Shayne Graham	11.00	Shayne Graham	11.00
DEF	49ers	21.36	49ers	21.36

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 31.10 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 132.42 vs. actual 123.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	28.34	Matthew Stafford	28.34
WR	Vincent Jackson	12.10	Denarius Moore	8.50
WR	Brandon Marshall	15.20	Vincent Jackson	12.10
WR	Denarius Moore	8.50	Brandon Marshall	15.20
RB	Adrian Peterson	16.80	Darren Sproles	10.06
RB	Marshawn Lynch	5.70	Adrian Peterson	16.80
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	9.40	Brandon Pettigrew	9.40
W/R	Darren Sproles	10.06	Malcom Floyd	14.50
K	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00
DEF	Seahawks	10.52	Seahawks	10.52

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 28.34 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2012

Multiple Gore-Gasms

101.06

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

The Big Tebowskis

145.07

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 48.34 points left. Optimal 149.40 vs. actual 101.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	13.60	Cam Newton	39.44
WR	Lance Moore	7.60	Lance Moore	7.60
WR	Hakeem Nicks	16.20	Jeremy Maclin	8.00
WR	Mike Wallace	1.40	Hakeem Nicks	16.20
RB	Frank Gore	17.10	Stevan Ridley	15.70
RB	Stevan Ridley	15.70	Frank Gore	17.10
TE	Aaron Hernandez	4.60	Kyle Rudolph	14.00
W/R	Chris Johnson	11.90	Michael Bush	18.40
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Commanders	6.96	Commanders	6.96

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Frank Gore, 17.10 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.30 points left. Optimal 152.37 vs. actual 145.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	17.50	Peyton Manning	17.50
WR	Jordy Nelson	14.10	Cecil Shorts	20.50
WR	Cecil Shorts	20.50	Justin Blackmon	15.90
WR	Justin Blackmon	15.90	Jordy Nelson	14.10
RB	Marcel Reece	12.30	Felix Jones	13.60
RB	Arian Foster	28.20	Arian Foster	28.20
TE	Jason Witten	11.90	Jason Witten	11.90
W/R	Andre Brown	12.40	Davone Bess	18.40
K	Matt Prater	5.00	Matt Prater	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	7.27	Cardinals	7.27

Carried by One Guy: Arian Foster, 28.20 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2012

Horgan

63.86

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

90.51

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.70 points left. Optimal 96.56 vs. actual 63.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	19.94	Colin Kaepernick	19.94
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	4.60	Jeremy Kerley	12.10
WR	DeSean Jackson	1.60	Larry Fitzgerald	4.60
WR	Brian Hartline	2.70	Brian Hartline	2.70
RB	Michael Turner	10.50	Michael Turner	10.50
RB	Rashard Mendenhall	-1.40	Knowshon Moreno	13.10
TE	Antonio Gates	2.30	Owen Daniels	10.00
W/R	Sidney Rice	6.70	Sidney Rice	6.70
K	Jason Hanson	8.00	Jason Hanson	8.00
DEF	Broncos	8.92	Broncos	8.92

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Colin Kaepernick, 19.94 points (30.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.40 points left. Optimal 97.91 vs. actual 90.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	10.40	Ryan Fitzpatrick	10.40
WR	Stevie Johnson	15.60	Julio Jones	25.70
WR	Julio Jones	25.70	Josh Gordon	8.00
WR	Josh Gordon	8.00	Stevie Johnson	15.60
RB	DeAngelo Williams	2.10	Vick Ballard	4.10
RB	Vick Ballard	4.10	DeAngelo Williams	2.10
TE	Brent Celek	2.90	Brent Celek	2.90
W/R	Darrius Heyward-Bey	0.00	Nate Washington	7.40
K	Sebastian Janikowski	6.00	Sebastian Janikowski	6.00
DEF	Bears	15.71	Bears	15.71

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 25.70 points (28.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 20 – 26, 2012

zyg

96.25

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

83.99

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.90 points left. Optimal 117.15 vs. actual 96.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	31.06	Robert Griffin III	31.06
WR	Anquan Boldin	5.20	Anquan Boldin	5.20
WR	Wes Welker	16.78	Wes Welker	16.78
WR	Donnie Avery	4.60	Josh Morgan	7.30
RB	Matt Forte	3.60	Ryan Mathews	10.30
RB	Ryan Mathews	10.30	Joique Bell	10.70
TE	Tony Gonzalez	8.70	Tony Gonzalez	8.70
W/R	Jalen Parmele	5.70	Beanie Wells	16.80
K	David Akers	6.00	David Akers	6.00
DEF	Texans	4.31	Texans	4.31

Carried by One Guy: Robert Griffin III, 31.06 points (32.3% of positive starter points).

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 43.10 points left. Optimal 127.09 vs. actual 83.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	10.96	Aaron Rodgers	10.96
WR	Brandon Lloyd	4.10	Andre Roberts	15.00
WR	Miles Austin	0.00	Brandon Lloyd	4.10
WR	James Jones	0.00	Kenny Britt	10.00
RB	C.J. Spiller	12.80	Trent Richardson	19.20
RB	Trent Richardson	19.20	Bryce Brown	30.90
TE	Jermichael Finley	6.60	Jermichael Finley	6.60
W/R	Reggie Bush	14.70	Reggie Bush	14.70
K	Robbie Gould	10.00	Robbie Gould	10.00
DEF	Buccaneers	5.63	Buccaneers	5.63

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Trent Richardson, 19.20 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Robert Griffin III scored 31.06; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	8–4	7.727	-1.5	-0.136	1 / 2
Big Hut	3–9	5.545	-6.0	-0.545	1 / 3
Horgan	3–9	3.636	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Multiple Gore-Gasms	5–7	6.000	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 3
Fischer	6–6	6.000	0.0	0.000	2 / 2
Demich	6–6	4.636	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
zyg	5–7	4.636	+5.5	+0.500	3 / 2
Kev	7–5	8.455	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Josh	7–5	6.909	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
The Big Tebowskis	9–3	8.000	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
SuckMyVick	5–7	5.364	+4.5	+0.409	3 / 2
Early Morning Doucet	8–4	5.091	+4.5	+0.409	3 / 0

2012 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Regular

zyg lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12