2012 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2012

j-mart

106.26

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Horgan

101.98

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.60 points left. Optimal 121.86 vs. actual 106.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	5.64	Drew Brees	5.64
WR	Reggie Wayne	7.10	Golden Tate	18.10
WR	Roddy White	2.50	Randall Cobb	11.28
WR	Randall Cobb	11.28	Reggie Wayne	7.10
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	14.60	Ahmad Bradshaw	14.60
RB	Jamaal Charles	17.80	Jamaal Charles	17.80
TE	Heath Miller	18.20	Heath Miller	18.20
W/R	Shonn Greene	12.40	Shonn Greene	12.40
K	Justin Tucker	8.00	Justin Tucker	8.00
DEF	Ravens	8.74	Ravens	8.74

Carried by One Guy: Heath Miller, 18.20 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.85 points left. Optimal 124.83 vs. actual 101.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	14.72	Josh Freeman	16.38
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	2.80	Jeremy Kerley	5.54
WR	Brian Hartline	10.90	Sidney Rice	18.90
WR	Jeremy Kerley	5.54	Brian Hartline	10.90
RB	Michael Turner	13.50	Jonathan Dwyer	13.20
RB	Jonathan Dwyer	13.20	Michael Turner	13.50
TE	Owen Daniels	5.80	Antonio Gates	7.90
W/R	Knowshon Moreno	10.30	Knowshon Moreno	10.30
K	Jason Hanson	18.00	Jason Hanson	18.00
DEF	Cowboys	7.22	Broncos	10.21

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jason Hanson, 18.00 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Heath Miller scored 18.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2012

Demich

83.96

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh

106.38

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.70 points left. Optimal 100.66 vs. actual 83.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	27.52	Tony Romo	27.52
WR	Andre Johnson	8.10	Dez Bryant	24.80
WR	Dez Bryant	24.80	Emmanuel Sanders	6.50
WR	Brandon LaFell	2.40	Andre Johnson	8.10
RB	Rashad Jennings	2.00	William Powell	2.58
RB	William Powell	2.58	Ronnie Hillman	2.90
TE	Vernon Davis	2.50	Jermaine Gresham	9.50
W/R	Brandon Stokley	0.00	Ronnie Brown	4.70
K	Shayne Graham	8.00	Shayne Graham	8.00
DEF	49ers	6.06	49ers	6.06

Carried by One Guy: Tony Romo, 27.52 points (32.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Steve Smith scored 22.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.81 points left. Optimal 129.19 vs. actual 106.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	11.42	Tom Brady	11.42
WR	Steve Smith	22.50	Danario Alexander	15.20
WR	Eric Decker	2.70	Chris Givens	15.14
WR	A.J. Green	13.00	Steve Smith	22.50
RB	Mike Tolbert	5.40	Alfred Morris	12.40
RB	Alfred Morris	12.40	Mike Tolbert	5.40
TE	Jimmy Graham	7.90	Jimmy Graham	7.90
W/R	T.Y. Hilton	15.12	T.Y. Hilton	15.12
K	Lawrence Tynes	11.00	Lawrence Tynes	11.00
DEF	Giants	4.94	Bengals	13.11

Carried by One Guy: Steve Smith, 22.50 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2012

zyg

160.23

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev

143.32

Rank 2; -4.5 luck points

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.10 points left. Optimal 162.33 vs. actual 160.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	17.72	Robert Griffin III	17.72
WR	Anquan Boldin	16.60	Anquan Boldin	16.60
WR	Wes Welker	24.30	Wes Welker	24.30
WR	Donnie Avery	23.60	Donnie Avery	23.60
RB	Matt Forte	17.10	Joique Bell	11.70
RB	Ryan Mathews	6.60	Matt Forte	17.10
TE	Tony Gonzalez	13.80	Tony Gonzalez	13.80
W/R	Joique Bell	11.70	Josh Morgan	8.70
K	David Akers	6.00	David Akers	6.00
DEF	Texans	22.81	Texans	22.81

Carried by One Guy: Wes Welker, 24.30 points (15.2% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.06 points left. Optimal 152.38 vs. actual 143.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	20.52	Matthew Stafford	20.52
WR	Vincent Jackson	7.00	Kendall Wright	10.80
WR	Brandon Marshall	23.50	Brandon Marshall	23.50
WR	Denarius Moore	4.10	Dwayne Bowe	8.40
RB	Adrian Peterson	30.50	Adrian Peterson	30.50
RB	Marshawn Lynch	14.80	Marshawn Lynch	14.80
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	11.80	Brandon Pettigrew	11.80
W/R	Darren Sproles	8.44	Pierre Thomas	9.40
K	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00
DEF	Jets	11.66	Jets	11.66

Carried by One Guy: Adrian Peterson, 30.50 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Wes Welker scored 24.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2012

Fischer

117.30

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

The Big Tebowskis

88.31

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.40 points left. Optimal 141.70 vs. actual 117.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	15.70	Eli Manning	15.70
WR	Marques Colston	10.10	Victor Cruz	14.90
WR	Victor Cruz	14.90	Marques Colston	10.10
WR	Torrey Smith	4.80	Michael Crabtree	15.60
RB	Ray Rice	14.80	Mikel Leshoure	14.30
RB	Mikel Leshoure	14.30	Ray Rice	14.80
TE	Dennis Pitta	2.40	Martellus Bennett	16.70
W/R	Michael Crabtree	15.60	Fred Jackson	14.90
K	Connor Barth	15.00	Connor Barth	15.00
DEF	Steelers	9.70	Steelers	9.70

Carried by One Guy: Eli Manning, 15.70 points (13.4% of positive starter points).

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.90 points left. Optimal 112.21 vs. actual 88.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	19.18	Peyton Manning	19.18
WR	Jordy Nelson	1.50	Cecil Shorts	17.20
WR	Davone Bess	1.80	Jordy Nelson	1.50
WR	Cecil Shorts	17.20	Davone Bess	1.80
RB	Marcel Reece	8.10	James Starks	15.20
RB	Arian Foster	13.80	Arian Foster	13.80
TE	Jason Witten	15.80	Jason Witten	15.80
W/R	Justin Blackmon	1.40	DeMarco Murray	18.20
K	Dan Bailey	8.00	Dan Bailey	8.00
DEF	Panthers	1.53	Panthers	1.53

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 19.18 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2012

Multiple Gore-Gasms

110.58

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

106.49

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 40.90 points left. Optimal 151.48 vs. actual 110.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	29.08	Andrew Luck	30.94
WR	Jeremy Maclin	5.30	Mike Williams	18.30
WR	Hakeem Nicks	6.80	Lance Moore	17.80
WR	Mike Wallace	6.90	Mike Wallace	6.90
RB	Frank Gore	11.80	Stevan Ridley	13.10
RB	Stevan Ridley	13.10	Frank Gore	11.80
TE	Aaron Hernandez	13.70	Brandon Myers	28.00
W/R	Chris Johnson	7.10	Chris Johnson	7.10
K	Matt Bryant	13.00	Matt Bryant	13.00
DEF	Commanders	3.80	Vikings	4.54

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 29.08 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.18 points left. Optimal 114.67 vs. actual 106.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	18.28	Ryan Fitzpatrick	18.28
WR	Stevie Johnson	8.80	Julio Jones	7.30
WR	Julio Jones	7.30	Josh Gordon	22.60
WR	Josh Gordon	22.60	Stevie Johnson	8.80
RB	DeAngelo Williams	7.30	Vick Ballard	13.70
RB	Vick Ballard	13.70	DeAngelo Williams	7.30
TE	Brent Celek	10.80	Brent Celek	10.80
W/R	Darrius Heyward-Bey	6.00	Nate Washington	11.10
K	Sebastian Janikowski	7.00	Garrett Hartley	8.00
DEF	Bears	4.71	Packers	6.79

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Josh Gordon, 22.60 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cam Newton scored 29.08; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2012

Big Hut

141.34

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

123.58

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.14 points left. Optimal 167.48 vs. actual 141.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	10.40	Sam Bradford	13.94
WR	Devery Henderson	0.00	Demaryius Thomas	25.90
WR	Calvin Johnson	31.60	Calvin Johnson	31.60
WR	Demaryius Thomas	25.90	Pierre Garcon	22.60
RB	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	17.20	Doug Martin	11.30
RB	Doug Martin	11.30	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	17.20
TE	Greg Olsen	11.20	Greg Olsen	11.20
W/R	Steven Jackson	14.20	Steven Jackson	14.20
K	Mason Crosby	12.00	Mason Crosby	12.00
DEF	Patriots	7.54	Patriots	7.54

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Johnson, 31.60 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.50 points left. Optimal 141.08 vs. actual 123.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	14.94	Aaron Rodgers	14.94
WR	Brandon Lloyd	1.50	Miles Austin	11.60
WR	Miles Austin	11.60	James Jones	11.00
WR	James Jones	11.00	Kenny Britt	11.00
RB	C.J. Spiller	14.90	C.J. Spiller	14.90
RB	Trent Richardson	17.00	Trent Richardson	17.00
TE	Jermichael Finley	9.00	Jermichael Finley	9.00
W/R	Bryce Brown	32.30	Bryce Brown	32.30
K	Robbie Gould	6.00	Shaun Suisham	14.00
DEF	Browns	5.34	Browns	5.34

Carried by One Guy: Bryce Brown, 32.30 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Calvin Johnson scored 31.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	9–4	8.000	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
Big Hut	4–9	6.364	-6.0	-0.545	1 / 3
Horgan	3–10	3.818	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Multiple Gore-Gasms	6–7	6.545	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 3
Fischer	7–6	6.636	0.0	0.000	2 / 2
Demich	6–7	4.636	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
zyg	6–7	5.636	+5.5	+0.500	3 / 2
Kev	7–6	9.364	-6.5	-0.591	0 / 3
Josh	8–5	7.273	+2.5	+0.227	3 / 2
The Big Tebowskis	9–4	8.091	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
SuckMyVick	5–8	5.818	+4.5	+0.409	3 / 2
Early Morning Doucet	8–5	5.818	+2.0	+0.182	3 / 1

2012 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

zyg lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Regular

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13