2012 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2012

j-mart

101.78

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Horgan

68.96

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.26 points left. Optimal 107.04 vs. actual 101.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	21.00	Drew Brees	21.00
WR	Reggie Wayne	16.10	Antonio Brown	12.50
WR	Roddy White	22.20	Reggie Wayne	16.10
WR	Antonio Brown	12.50	Roddy White	22.20
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	1.60	Dexter McCluster	5.20
RB	Jamaal Charles	3.70	Jamaal Charles	3.70
TE	Jacob Tamme	2.30	Jacob Tamme	2.30
W/R	Randall Cobb	6.04	Jon Baldwin	7.70
K	Robbie Gould	5.00	Robbie Gould	5.00
DEF	Ravens	11.34	Ravens	11.34

Carried by One Guy: Roddy White, 22.20 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.46 points left. Optimal 108.42 vs. actual 68.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	9.28	Michael Vick	24.24
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	0.90	Santonio Holmes	10.30
WR	Santonio Holmes	10.30	Sidney Rice	4.80
WR	DeSean Jackson	16.90	DeSean Jackson	16.90
RB	Michael Turner	10.70	Curtis Brinkley	8.60
RB	Darren McFadden	5.10	Michael Turner	10.70
TE	Jared Cook	3.80	Owen Daniels	7.70
W/R	Sidney Rice	4.80	Andre Brown	18.00
K	Matt Prater	3.00	Matt Prater	3.00
DEF	Jets	4.18	Jets	4.18

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: DeSean Jackson, 16.90 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2012

Demich

110.01

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Josh

90.66

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.16 points left. Optimal 114.17 vs. actual 110.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	11.94	Tony Romo	11.94
WR	Andre Johnson	3.60	Brandon LaFell	14.50
WR	Dez Bryant	3.24	Emmanuel Sanders	4.80
WR	Brandon LaFell	14.50	Andre Johnson	3.60
RB	Willis McGahee	27.40	Willis McGahee	27.40
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	14.20	Maurice Jones-Drew	14.20
TE	Vernon Davis	21.80	Vernon Davis	21.80
W/R	Ronnie Brown	5.40	Kevin Smith	8.00
K	Dan Bailey	1.00	Dan Bailey	1.00
DEF	49ers	6.93	49ers	6.93

Carried by One Guy: Willis McGahee, 27.40 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 41.00 points left. Optimal 131.66 vs. actual 90.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	16.54	Tom Brady	16.54
WR	Steve Smith	13.90	A.J. Green	15.30
WR	Eric Decker	7.48	Greg Little	14.20
WR	A.J. Green	15.30	Steve Smith	13.90
RB	David Wilson	2.32	Ben Tate	23.70
RB	Alfred Morris	8.90	Alfred Morris	8.90
TE	Jimmy Graham	16.60	Jimmy Graham	16.60
W/R	Donald Jones	0.40	Jonathan Stewart	13.30
K	Billy Cundiff	4.00	Billy Cundiff	4.00
DEF	Giants	5.22	Giants	5.22

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jimmy Graham, 16.60 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Willis McGahee scored 27.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2012

zyg

115.11

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Kev

171.31

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.20 points left. Optimal 119.31 vs. actual 115.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	22.26	Philip Rivers	22.26
WR	Wes Welker	12.00	Wes Welker	12.00
WR	Vincent Jackson	23.30	Vincent Jackson	23.30
WR	Brandon Marshall	3.40	Brandon Marshall	3.40
RB	Matt Forte	10.00	Matt Forte	10.00
RB	Beanie Wells	7.30	Beanie Wells	7.30
TE	Tony Gonzalez	16.50	Tony Gonzalez	16.50
W/R	Stephen Hill	0.00	Toby Gerhart	4.20
K	David Akers	10.00	David Akers	10.00
DEF	Texans	10.35	Texans	10.35

Carried by One Guy: Vincent Jackson, 23.30 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.44 points left. Optimal 180.75 vs. actual 171.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	12.20	Russell Wilson	12.84
WR	Malcom Floyd	15.90	Demaryius Thomas	17.80
WR	Dwayne Bowe	28.20	Malcom Floyd	15.90
WR	Demaryius Thomas	17.80	Dwayne Bowe	28.20
RB	Adrian Peterson	9.50	Marshawn Lynch	20.20
RB	Marshawn Lynch	20.20	Pierre Thomas	18.30
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	9.30	Brandon Pettigrew	9.30
W/R	Darren Sproles	22.94	Darren Sproles	22.94
K	Stephen Gostkowski	17.00	Stephen Gostkowski	17.00
DEF	Seahawks	18.27	Seahawks	18.27

Carried by One Guy: Dwayne Bowe, 28.20 points (16.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2012

Fischer

149.25

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

The Big Tebowskis

130.12

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.10 points left. Optimal 154.35 vs. actual 149.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	28.20	Eli Manning	28.20
WR	Marques Colston	6.40	Victor Cruz	31.40
WR	Victor Cruz	31.40	Mario Manningham	7.20
WR	Torrey Smith	6.10	Michael Crabtree	9.70
RB	Ray Rice	18.20	Mark Ingram II	11.30
RB	Mark Ingram II	11.30	Ray Rice	18.20
TE	Dennis Pitta	10.50	Dennis Pitta	10.50
W/R	Michael Crabtree	9.70	Isaac Redman	10.40
K	Jason Hanson	16.00	Jason Hanson	16.00
DEF	Falcons	11.45	Falcons	11.45

Carried by One Guy: Victor Cruz, 31.40 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.10 points left. Optimal 150.22 vs. actual 130.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	7.54	Peyton Manning	7.54
WR	Jordy Nelson	11.40	Jordy Nelson	11.40
WR	Danny Amendola	30.08	Danny Amendola	30.08
WR	Percy Harvin	21.26	Percy Harvin	21.26
RB	Arian Foster	25.70	Daryl Richardson	11.20
RB	DeMarco Murray	9.50	Arian Foster	25.70
TE	Jason Witten	7.80	Brent Celek	21.70
W/R	Peyton Hillis	8.10	Andrew Hawkins	12.60
K	Rob Bironas	3.00	Rob Bironas	3.00
DEF	Lions	5.74	Lions	5.74

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Danny Amendola, 30.08 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Victor Cruz scored 31.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2012

Multiple Gore-Gasms

122.90

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

114.69

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.40 points left. Optimal 137.30 vs. actual 122.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	25.22	Cam Newton	25.22
WR	Lance Moore	4.00	Mike Williams	13.40
WR	Miles Austin	14.80	Miles Austin	14.80
WR	Hakeem Nicks	32.90	Hakeem Nicks	32.90
RB	Frank Gore	17.50	Stevan Ridley	11.00
RB	Chris Johnson	3.80	Frank Gore	17.50
TE	Aaron Hernandez	0.00	Aaron Hernandez	0.00
W/R	Stevan Ridley	11.00	Jeremy Maclin	8.80
K	Dan Carpenter	5.00	Dan Carpenter	5.00
DEF	Steelers	8.68	Steelers	8.68

Carried by One Guy: Hakeem Nicks, 32.90 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.60 points left. Optimal 125.29 vs. actual 114.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	19.00	Ben Roethlisberger	19.00
WR	Stevie Johnson	12.60	Donald Driver	9.10
WR	Darrius Heyward-Bey	6.10	Stevie Johnson	12.60
WR	Julio Jones	3.50	Darrius Heyward-Bey	6.10
RB	DeAngelo Williams	12.90	DeAngelo Williams	12.90
RB	LeSean McCoy	13.90	LeSean McCoy	13.90
TE	Rob Gronkowski	16.50	Rob Gronkowski	16.50
W/R	Jeremy Kerley	5.82	Jeremy Kerley	5.82
K	Sebastian Janikowski	5.00	Garrett Hartley	10.00
DEF	Packers	19.37	Packers	19.37

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Packers, 19.37 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Hakeem Nicks scored 32.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 11 – 17, 2012

Big Hut

88.26

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

160.15

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures unavailable: inconsistent-eligibility.

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 18.66 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Roster evidence flags: inconsistent-eligibility.

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.90 points left. Optimal 169.05 vs. actual 160.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	10.16	Andrew Luck	19.06
WR	Brandon Lloyd	10.00	Andre Roberts	6.70
WR	Mike Wallace	15.90	Brandon Lloyd	10.00
WR	Andre Roberts	6.70	Mike Wallace	15.90
RB	Reggie Bush	35.20	Trent Richardson	30.50
RB	Trent Richardson	30.50	Reggie Bush	35.20
TE	Jermichael Finley	2.60	Jermichael Finley	2.60
W/R	C.J. Spiller	32.50	C.J. Spiller	32.50
K	Mike Nugent	10.00	Mike Nugent	10.00
DEF	Eagles	6.59	Eagles	6.59

Carried by One Guy: Reggie Bush, 35.20 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–0	1.273	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Big Hut	0–2	0.636	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Horgan	0–2	0.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Multiple Gore-Gasms	2–0	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–1	0.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	2–0	1.182	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
zyg	0–2	0.909	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Kev	1–1	1.636	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Josh	1–1	0.364	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0
The Big Tebowskis	0–2	1.000	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
SuckMyVick	1–1	0.909	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Early Morning Doucet	2–0	1.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2012 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

zyg lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Regular

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2