2012 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2012

j-mart

139.03

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

95.70

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 139.03 vs. actual 139.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	21.82	Drew Brees	21.82
WR	Reggie Wayne	13.60	Golden Tate	17.02
WR	Roddy White	16.90	Reggie Wayne	13.60
WR	Golden Tate	17.02	Roddy White	16.90
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	6.60	Ahmad Bradshaw	6.60
RB	Jamaal Charles	18.00	Jamaal Charles	18.00
TE	Heath Miller	6.70	Heath Miller	6.70
W/R	Shonn Greene	6.80	Shonn Greene	6.80
K	Blair Walsh	13.00	Blair Walsh	13.00
DEF	Ravens	18.59	Ravens	18.59

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 21.82 points (15.7% of positive starter points).

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.12 points left. Optimal 112.82 vs. actual 95.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	8.76	Ryan Fitzpatrick	20.68
WR	Nate Washington	1.00	Julio Jones	9.50
WR	Stevie Johnson	11.60	Stevie Johnson	11.60
WR	Julio Jones	9.50	Brandon Gibson	6.20
RB	LeSean McCoy	12.20	Vick Ballard	6.90
RB	Vick Ballard	6.90	LeSean McCoy	12.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	10.60	Rob Gronkowski	10.60
W/R	Darrius Heyward-Bey	16.30	Darrius Heyward-Bey	16.30
K	Sebastian Janikowski	9.00	Sebastian Janikowski	9.00
DEF	Bears	9.84	Bears	9.84

Carried by One Guy: Darrius Heyward-Bey, 16.30 points (17.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2012

Horgan

103.81

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Josh

95.87

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.20 points left. Optimal 120.01 vs. actual 103.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Freeman	16.80	Josh Freeman	16.80
WR	DeSean Jackson	8.70	Jeremy Kerley	6.82
WR	Brian Hartline	11.90	DeSean Jackson	8.70
WR	Jeremy Kerley	6.82	Brian Hartline	11.90
RB	Michael Turner	1.50	Jonathan Dwyer	6.50
RB	Jonathan Dwyer	6.50	Michael Turner	1.50
TE	Antonio Gates	13.70	Antonio Gates	13.70
W/R	Michael Jenkins	2.20	Sidney Rice	18.40
K	Jason Hanson	7.00	Jason Hanson	7.00
DEF	Broncos	28.69	Broncos	28.69

Carried by One Guy: Broncos, 28.69 points (27.6% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.40 points left. Optimal 117.27 vs. actual 95.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	17.38	Tom Brady	17.38
WR	Steve Smith	2.60	Danario Alexander	23.90
WR	Eric Decker	2.50	A.J. Green	18.00
WR	A.J. Green	18.00	Steve Smith	2.60
RB	Jonathan Stewart	6.40	Daryl Richardson	6.30
RB	Daryl Richardson	6.30	Jonathan Stewart	6.40
TE	Jimmy Graham	32.10	Jimmy Graham	32.10
W/R	T.Y. Hilton	3.24	T.Y. Hilton	3.24
K	Lawrence Tynes	6.00	Lawrence Tynes	6.00
DEF	Giants	1.35	Giants	1.35

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jimmy Graham, 32.10 points (33.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Broncos scored 28.69; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2012

Multiple Gore-Gasms

126.10

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Kev

168.03

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.70 points left. Optimal 145.80 vs. actual 126.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	14.34	Cam Newton	14.34
WR	Lance Moore	12.60	Lance Moore	12.60
WR	Miles Austin	4.20	Jeremy Maclin	19.30
WR	Mike Williams	7.40	Hakeem Nicks	12.00
RB	Chris Johnson	21.90	Stevan Ridley	15.80
RB	Stevan Ridley	15.80	Chris Johnson	21.90
TE	Kyle Rudolph	15.90	Kyle Rudolph	15.90
W/R	Frank Gore	19.00	Frank Gore	19.00
K	Matt Bryant	8.00	Matt Bryant	8.00
DEF	Vikings	6.96	Vikings	6.96

Carried by One Guy: Chris Johnson, 21.90 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.80 points left. Optimal 175.83 vs. actual 168.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	26.46	Matthew Stafford	26.46
WR	Vincent Jackson	8.40	Denarius Moore	17.00
WR	Brandon Marshall	16.70	Vincent Jackson	8.40
WR	Denarius Moore	17.00	Brandon Marshall	16.70
RB	Adrian Peterson	29.10	Adrian Peterson	29.10
RB	Marshawn Lynch	21.60	Marshawn Lynch	21.60
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	10.70	Brandon Pettigrew	10.70
W/R	Dwayne Bowe	7.50	Malcom Floyd	15.30
K	Justin Tucker	14.00	Justin Tucker	14.00
DEF	Seahawks	16.57	Seahawks	16.57

Carried by One Guy: Adrian Peterson, 29.10 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2012

Fischer

99.35

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

zyg

125.04

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 61.86 points left. Optimal 161.21 vs. actual 99.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	2.70	Andy Dalton	23.76
WR	Marques Colston	10.10	Torrey Smith	19.70
WR	Michael Crabtree	15.50	Marques Colston	10.10
WR	Victor Cruz	4.10	Michael Crabtree	15.50
RB	Ray Rice	14.80	Chris Ivory	15.00
RB	Daniel Thomas	8.00	Ray Rice	14.80
TE	Martellus Bennett	5.70	Martellus Bennett	5.70
W/R	Mikel Leshoure	5.30	Fred Jackson	23.50
K	Connor Barth	12.00	Connor Barth	12.00
DEF	Buccaneers	21.15	Buccaneers	21.15

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Buccaneers, 21.15 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tony Gonzalez scored 31.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 131.94 vs. actual 125.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	23.98	Philip Rivers	23.98
WR	Anquan Boldin	5.80	Anquan Boldin	5.80
WR	Wes Welker	10.40	Wes Welker	10.40
WR	Donnie Avery	8.50	Donnie Avery	8.50
RB	Matt Forte	4.60	Ryan Mathews	10.10
RB	Ryan Mathews	10.10	Joique Bell	8.30
TE	Tony Gonzalez	31.70	Tony Gonzalez	31.70
W/R	Joique Bell	8.30	Titus Young	11.50
K	David Akers	6.00	David Akers	6.00
DEF	Texans	15.66	Texans	15.66

Carried by One Guy: Tony Gonzalez, 31.70 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2012

Big Hut

159.72

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

The Big Tebowskis

161.04

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.60 points left. Optimal 171.32 vs. actual 159.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	28.64	Matt Ryan	28.64
WR	Devery Henderson	0.00	Demaryius Thomas	20.00
WR	Calvin Johnson	32.70	Calvin Johnson	32.70
WR	Demaryius Thomas	20.00	Laurent Robinson	10.20
RB	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	6.80	Jacquizz Rodgers	8.20
RB	Doug Martin	13.40	Doug Martin	13.40
TE	Greg Olsen	28.70	Greg Olsen	28.70
W/R	Steven Jackson	21.70	Steven Jackson	21.70
K	Mason Crosby	0.00	Mason Crosby	0.00
DEF	Patriots	7.78	Patriots	7.78

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Johnson, 32.70 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cowboys scored 25.14; zeroing that score creates a win.

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 161.04 vs. actual 161.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	16.44	Peyton Manning	16.44
WR	Davone Bess	7.30	Cecil Shorts	21.50
WR	Danny Amendola	18.06	Davone Bess	7.30
WR	Cecil Shorts	21.50	Danny Amendola	18.06
RB	Felix Jones	16.80	Felix Jones	16.80
RB	Arian Foster	22.20	Arian Foster	22.20
TE	Jason Witten	8.70	Jason Witten	8.70
W/R	Andre Brown	17.90	Andre Brown	17.90
K	Robbie Gould	7.00	Robbie Gould	7.00
DEF	Cowboys	25.14	Cowboys	25.14

Carried by One Guy: Cowboys, 25.14 points (15.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 6 – 12, 2012

Demich

72.97

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

107.55

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.50 points left. Optimal 90.47 vs. actual 72.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	16.26	Tony Romo	16.26
WR	Andre Johnson	5.50	Dez Bryant	16.20
WR	Dez Bryant	16.20	Brandon LaFell	4.90
WR	Brandon LaFell	4.90	Andre Johnson	5.50
RB	Willis McGahee	8.90	Willis McGahee	8.90
RB	Rashad Jennings	2.70	Ronnie Brown	3.90
TE	Vernon Davis	5.00	Jermaine Gresham	9.00
W/R	Ryan Broyles	1.10	Brandon Stokley	13.40
K	Shayne Graham	7.00	Shayne Graham	7.00
DEF	49ers	5.41	49ers	5.41

Carried by One Guy: Tony Romo, 16.26 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.40 points left. Optimal 108.95 vs. actual 107.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	18.18	Andrew Luck	18.18
WR	Brandon Lloyd	7.00	Brandon Lloyd	7.00
WR	Kenny Britt	4.60	Kenny Britt	4.60
WR	Mike Wallace	8.90	Mike Wallace	8.90
RB	Reggie Bush	1.40	C.J. Spiller	15.10
RB	C.J. Spiller	15.10	Kendall Hunter	2.80
TE	Scott Chandler	15.00	Scott Chandler	15.00
W/R	Danny Woodhead	20.10	Danny Woodhead	20.10
K	Shaun Suisham	9.00	Shaun Suisham	9.00
DEF	Steelers	8.27	Steelers	8.27

Carried by One Guy: Danny Woodhead, 20.10 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	7–3	6.545	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	1–9	3.818	-6.0	-0.545	1 / 3
Horgan	3–7	3.636	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Multiple Gore-Gasms	5–5	5.091	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Fischer	5–5	4.909	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Demich	4–6	2.636	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
zyg	4–6	4.000	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 2
Kev	7–3	7.818	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Josh	5–5	5.273	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
The Big Tebowskis	7–3	6.455	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
SuckMyVick	4–6	4.909	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
Early Morning Doucet	8–2	4.909	+4.5	+0.409	3 / 0

2012 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

zyg lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10