2012 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2012

j-mart

139.56

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Kev

155.07

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.32 points left. Optimal 142.88 vs. actual 139.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	31.18	Drew Brees	31.18
WR	Reggie Wayne	10.30	Antonio Brown	14.60
WR	Antonio Brown	14.60	Randall Cobb	27.56
WR	Randall Cobb	27.56	Reggie Wayne	10.30
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	14.50	Ahmad Bradshaw	14.50
RB	Shonn Greene	17.80	Shonn Greene	17.80
TE	Heath Miller	16.30	Heath Miller	16.30
W/R	Phillip Tanner	4.30	Jacoby Jones	7.62
K	Blair Walsh	3.00	Blair Walsh	3.00
DEF	Ravens	0.02	Ravens	0.02

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 31.18 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Vincent Jackson scored 33.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.80 points left. Optimal 165.87 vs. actual 155.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	14.62	Matthew Stafford	14.62
WR	Vincent Jackson	33.10	Denarius Moore	11.60
WR	Brandon Marshall	17.10	Vincent Jackson	33.10
WR	Denarius Moore	11.60	Brandon Marshall	17.10
RB	Adrian Peterson	24.90	Adrian Peterson	24.90
RB	Marshawn Lynch	14.10	LaRod Stephens-Howling	24.90
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	6.40	Brandon Pettigrew	6.40
W/R	Darren Sproles	14.20	Darren Sproles	14.20
K	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00
DEF	Seahawks	8.05	Seahawks	8.05

Carried by One Guy: Vincent Jackson, 33.10 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2012

Big Hut

115.83

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

zyg

91.54

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 115.83 vs. actual 115.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Bradford	12.20	Sam Bradford	12.20
WR	Santana Moss	18.20	Santana Moss	18.20
WR	Devery Henderson	9.00	Devery Henderson	9.00
WR	Calvin Johnson	4.90	Calvin Johnson	4.90
RB	Steven Jackson	11.70	Doug Martin	19.70
RB	Doug Martin	19.70	Steven Jackson	11.70
TE	Fred Davis	1.80	Fred Davis	1.80
W/R	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	6.90	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	6.90
K	Mason Crosby	13.00	Mason Crosby	13.00
DEF	Patriots	18.43	Patriots	18.43

Carried by One Guy: Doug Martin, 19.70 points (17.0% of positive starter points).

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.50 points left. Optimal 100.04 vs. actual 91.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	23.22	Robert Griffin III	23.22
WR	Anquan Boldin	3.90	Anquan Boldin	3.90
WR	Wes Welker	10.36	Wes Welker	10.36
WR	Donnie Avery	6.60	Donnie Avery	6.60
RB	Matt Forte	11.50	Joique Bell	2.40
RB	Joique Bell	2.40	Matt Forte	11.50
TE	Jared Cook	4.70	Jared Cook	4.70
W/R	Josh Morgan	2.60	Titus Young	11.10
K	David Akers	6.00	David Akers	6.00
DEF	Texans	20.26	Texans	20.26

Carried by One Guy: Robert Griffin III, 23.22 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2012

Horgan

117.64

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Demich

71.53

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 117.64 vs. actual 117.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Freeman	32.10	Josh Freeman	32.10
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	4.90	Jeremy Kerley	18.14
WR	Sidney Rice	4.20	Larry Fitzgerald	4.90
WR	Jeremy Kerley	18.14	Sidney Rice	4.20
RB	Darren McFadden	10.10	Alex Green	8.40
RB	Alex Green	8.40	Darren McFadden	10.10
TE	Owen Daniels	15.40	Owen Daniels	15.40
W/R	Jonathan Dwyer	14.20	Jonathan Dwyer	14.20
K	Jason Hanson	1.00	Jason Hanson	1.00
DEF	Cardinals	9.20	Cardinals	9.20

Carried by One Guy: Josh Freeman, 32.10 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.30 points left. Optimal 94.83 vs. actual 71.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	14.18	Tony Romo	14.18
WR	Andre Johnson	13.10	Dez Bryant	2.74
WR	Dez Bryant	2.74	Brandon LaFell	13.30
WR	Brandon LaFell	13.30	Andre Johnson	13.10
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	0.60	Maurice Jones-Drew	0.60
RB	LeGarrette Blount	-0.20	Rashad Jennings	19.70
TE	Vernon Davis	0.00	Jermaine Gresham	3.40
W/R	Kevin Ogletree	4.70	Kevin Ogletree	4.70
K	Greg Zuerlein	11.00	Greg Zuerlein	11.00
DEF	49ers	12.11	49ers	12.11

Carried by One Guy: Tony Romo, 14.18 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2012

Multiple Gore-Gasms

142.59

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

119.43

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.00 points left. Optimal 162.59 vs. actual 142.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	16.32	Cam Newton	16.32
WR	Miles Austin	16.20	Miles Austin	16.20
WR	James Jones	8.30	James Jones	8.30
WR	Hakeem Nicks	7.80	Hakeem Nicks	7.80
RB	Frank Gore	22.70	Frank Gore	22.70
RB	Stevan Ridley	6.50	Chris Johnson	34.30
TE	Kyle Rudolph	0.00	Aaron Hernandez	7.90
W/R	Chris Johnson	34.30	Lance Moore	18.60
K	Justin Tucker	11.00	Justin Tucker	11.00
DEF	Vikings	19.47	Vikings	19.47

Carried by One Guy: Chris Johnson, 34.30 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 119.43 vs. actual 119.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	15.88	Eli Manning	15.88
WR	Marques Colston	16.80	Victor Cruz	24.60
WR	Victor Cruz	24.60	Torrey Smith	6.10
WR	Torrey Smith	6.10	Marques Colston	16.80
RB	Fred Jackson	22.00	Fred Jackson	22.00
RB	Ray Rice	7.90	Ray Rice	7.90
TE	Dennis Pitta	5.80	Dennis Pitta	5.80
W/R	Mikel Leshoure	9.30	Mikel Leshoure	9.30
K	Rob Bironas	5.00	Rob Bironas	5.00
DEF	Raiders	6.05	Raiders	6.05

Carried by One Guy: Victor Cruz, 24.60 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chris Johnson scored 34.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2012

The Big Tebowskis

110.76

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

74.09

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.20 points left. Optimal 117.96 vs. actual 110.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	13.40	Jay Cutler	13.40
WR	Jordy Nelson	24.20	Devin Hester	5.40
WR	Percy Harvin	13.64	Jordy Nelson	24.20
WR	Andrew Hawkins	2.70	Percy Harvin	13.64
RB	Felix Jones	9.90	Felix Jones	9.90
RB	Arian Foster	22.80	Arian Foster	22.80
TE	Jason Witten	7.40	Jason Witten	7.40
W/R	Devin Hester	5.40	Andre Brown	9.90
K	Robbie Gould	6.00	Robbie Gould	6.00
DEF	Steelers	5.32	Steelers	5.32

Carried by One Guy: Jordy Nelson, 24.20 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.50 points left. Optimal 100.59 vs. actual 74.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	27.68	Aaron Rodgers	27.68
WR	Brandon Lloyd	1.10	Andre Roberts	21.80
WR	Kenny Britt	5.00	Stephen Hill	7.50
WR	Mike Wallace	9.90	Mike Wallace	9.90
RB	C.J. Spiller	13.20	C.J. Spiller	13.20
RB	Trent Richardson	2.90	Kendall Hunter	5.50
TE	Scott Chandler	2.50	Jermichael Finley	4.10
W/R	Stephen Hill	7.50	Danny Woodhead	6.60
K	Mike Nugent	6.00	Mike Nugent	6.00
DEF	Buccaneers	-1.69	Buccaneers	-1.69

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 27.68 points (36.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 16 – 22, 2012

Josh

95.38

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

119.66

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.64 points left. Optimal 117.02 vs. actual 95.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	18.36	Tom Brady	18.36
WR	Steve Smith	11.80	A.J. Green	7.30
WR	A.J. Green	7.30	Chris Givens	11.20
WR	T.Y. Hilton	3.36	Steve Smith	11.80
RB	Jonathan Stewart	6.10	Alfred Morris	14.00
RB	Alfred Morris	14.00	Jonathan Stewart	6.10
TE	David Thomas	9.70	Dustin Keller	18.80
W/R	Domenik Hixon	4.70	Daryl Richardson	9.40
K	Lawrence Tynes	8.00	Lawrence Tynes	8.00
DEF	Giants	12.06	Giants	12.06

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 18.36 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.28 points left. Optimal 134.94 vs. actual 119.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	13.02	Ryan Fitzpatrick	19.30
WR	Nate Washington	13.30	Josh Gordon	12.90
WR	Stevie Johnson	15.60	Nate Washington	13.30
WR	Josh Gordon	12.90	Stevie Johnson	15.60
RB	DeAngelo Williams	0.40	Vick Ballard	10.80
RB	Vick Ballard	10.80	DeAngelo Williams	0.40
TE	Rob Gronkowski	22.80	Rob Gronkowski	22.80
W/R	Darrius Heyward-Bey	10.50	Darrius Heyward-Bey	10.50
K	Garrett Hartley	5.00	Sebastian Janikowski	14.00
DEF	Bears	15.34	Bears	15.34

Carried by One Guy: Rob Gronkowski, 22.80 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–1	5.273	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	1–6	1.909	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Horgan	2–5	2.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Multiple Gore-Gasms	5–2	3.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	4–3	4.364	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Demich	3–4	2.000	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
zyg	1–6	2.909	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Kev	4–3	5.000	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Josh	3–4	3.182	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
The Big Tebowskis	5–2	4.364	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
SuckMyVick	3–4	3.364	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Early Morning Doucet	5–2	3.636	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0

2012 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

zyg lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7