2012 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 18 – 24, 2012

Big Hut

155.18

Horgan

110.34

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.10 points left. Optimal 167.28 vs. actual 155.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	29.66	Matt Ryan	29.66
WR	Calvin Johnson	28.00	Demaryius Thomas	22.70
WR	Pierre Garcon	12.40	Calvin Johnson	28.00
WR	Demaryius Thomas	22.70	Pierre Garcon	12.40
RB	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	1.90	Doug Martin	15.40
RB	Doug Martin	15.40	Steven Jackson	14.20
TE	Greg Olsen	8.30	Greg Olsen	8.30
W/R	Steven Jackson	14.20	Greg Jennings	14.00
K	Mason Crosby	13.00	Mason Crosby	13.00
DEF	Patriots	9.62	Patriots	9.62

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 29.66 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.66 points left. Optimal 119.00 vs. actual 110.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	14.86	Colin Kaepernick	14.86
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	17.10	Dexter McCluster	5.50
WR	Brian Hartline	2.20	Jeremy Kerley	2.26
WR	Dexter McCluster	5.50	Larry Fitzgerald	17.10
RB	Darren McFadden	6.30	Michael Turner	7.70
RB	Knowshon Moreno	15.20	Knowshon Moreno	15.20
TE	Owen Daniels	4.20	Antonio Gates	11.40
W/R	Ryan Grant	23.90	Ryan Grant	23.90
K	Jason Hanson	9.00	Jason Hanson	9.00
DEF	Broncos	12.08	Broncos	12.08

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Grant, 23.90 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 18 – 24, 2012

Multiple Gore-Gasms

81.96

zyg

98.16

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 47.88 points left. Optimal 129.84 vs. actual 81.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	20.80	Cam Newton	20.80
WR	Jeremy Maclin	23.60	Mike Williams	24.70
WR	Hakeem Nicks	0.00	Lance Moore	11.00
WR	Mike Wallace	1.70	Jeremy Maclin	23.60
RB	Frank Gore	2.80	Stevan Ridley	8.40
RB	Stevan Ridley	8.40	Frank Gore	2.80
TE	Aaron Hernandez	1.80	Kyle Rudolph	11.40
W/R	Chris Johnson	5.10	Chris Johnson	5.10
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Commanders	11.76	Vikings	16.04

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Maclin, 23.60 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Wes Welker scored 21.54; zeroing that score creates a win.

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.48 points left. Optimal 108.64 vs. actual 98.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	14.32	Philip Rivers	15.00
WR	Anquan Boldin	12.80	Anquan Boldin	12.80
WR	Wes Welker	21.54	Wes Welker	21.54
WR	Donnie Avery	6.30	Donnie Avery	6.30
RB	Matt Forte	16.00	Joique Bell	12.80
RB	Ryan Mathews	0.00	Matt Forte	16.00
TE	Tony Gonzalez	1.40	Tony Gonzalez	1.40
W/R	Joique Bell	12.80	Josh Morgan	9.80
K	David Akers	9.00	David Akers	9.00
DEF	Texans	4.00	Texans	4.00

Carried by One Guy: Wes Welker, 21.54 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 18 – 24, 2012

j-mart

174.46

The Big Tebowskis

90.57

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.62 points left. Optimal 191.08 vs. actual 174.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	31.74	Drew Brees	31.74
WR	Reggie Wayne	16.60	Randall Cobb	14.48
WR	Roddy White	33.30	Reggie Wayne	16.60
WR	Randall Cobb	14.48	Roddy White	33.30
RB	Jamaal Charles	29.50	Jamaal Charles	29.50
RB	Shonn Greene	21.00	Shonn Greene	21.00
TE	Heath Miller	6.00	Heath Miller	6.00
W/R	Golden Tate	3.70	Antonio Brown	18.32
K	Justin Tucker	12.00	Blair Walsh	14.00
DEF	Ravens	6.14	Ravens	6.14

Carried by One Guy: Roddy White, 33.30 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.50 points left. Optimal 114.07 vs. actual 90.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	25.56	Peyton Manning	25.56
WR	Danny Amendola	-0.50	Cecil Shorts	8.40
WR	Cecil Shorts	8.40	Justin Blackmon	17.40
WR	Justin Blackmon	17.40	Jason Avant	11.00
RB	Arian Foster	1.90	DeMarco Murray	9.10
RB	DeMarco Murray	9.10	Montell Owens	13.90
TE	Jason Witten	9.00	Jason Witten	9.00
W/R	David Wilson	11.04	David Wilson	11.04
K	Phil Dawson	7.00	Phil Dawson	7.00
DEF	Lions	1.67	Lions	1.67

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 25.56 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 18 – 24, 2012

Kev

147.22

Josh

113.07

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.64 points left. Optimal 156.86 vs. actual 147.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	17.92	Matthew Stafford	17.92
WR	Vincent Jackson	16.30	Alshon Jeffery	4.00
WR	Brandon Marshall	15.80	Vincent Jackson	16.30
WR	Rod Streater	2.60	Brandon Marshall	15.80
RB	Adrian Peterson	9.50	Marshawn Lynch	28.00
RB	Marshawn Lynch	28.00	Pierre Thomas	17.74
TE	Tony Scheffler	6.10	Tony Scheffler	6.10
W/R	Darren Sproles	21.20	Darren Sproles	21.20
K	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00
DEF	Seahawks	18.80	Seahawks	18.80

Carried by One Guy: Marshawn Lynch, 28.00 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.09 points left. Optimal 143.16 vs. actual 113.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	14.68	Tom Brady	14.68
WR	Steve Smith	12.50	Eric Decker	21.50
WR	Eric Decker	21.50	Danario Alexander	14.40
WR	A.J. Green	16.60	A.J. Green	16.60
RB	Mark Ingram II	12.50	Mark Ingram II	12.50
RB	Alfred Morris	17.30	Alfred Morris	17.30
TE	Jimmy Graham	12.30	Jimmy Graham	12.30
W/R	T.Y. Hilton	4.40	Bernard Pierce	14.30
K	Lawrence Tynes	2.00	Lawrence Tynes	2.00
DEF	Giants	-0.71	Colts	17.58

Carried by One Guy: Eric Decker, 21.50 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

2012 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Consolation

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

zyg lineup

Playoff

j-mart lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Playoff

Kev lineup

Josh lineup