2012 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 5 – 10, 2012

j-mart

136.88

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

121.34

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.90 points left. Optimal 163.78 vs. actual 136.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	23.56	Drew Brees	23.56
WR	Reggie Wayne	20.00	Randall Cobb	22.26
WR	Roddy White	11.70	Reggie Wayne	20.00
WR	Antonio Brown	10.26	Roddy White	11.70
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	16.30	Ahmad Bradshaw	16.30
RB	Jamaal Charles	8.70	Shonn Greene	15.40
TE	Jacob Tamme	12.80	Jacob Tamme	12.80
W/R	Rashad Jennings	4.50	Randy Moss	12.70
K	Robbie Gould	10.00	Robbie Gould	10.00
DEF	Ravens	19.06	Ravens	19.06

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 23.56 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.60 points left. Optimal 124.94 vs. actual 121.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	32.46	Matt Ryan	32.46
WR	Greg Jennings	5.90	Calvin Johnson	16.10
WR	Calvin Johnson	16.10	Laurent Robinson	9.10
WR	Pierre Garcon	20.90	Pierre Garcon	20.90
RB	Steven Jackson	10.40	Doug Martin	13.80
RB	Doug Martin	13.80	Donald Brown	10.80
TE	Fred Davis	4.80	Fred Davis	4.80
W/R	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	16.00	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	16.00
K	Mason Crosby	2.00	Mason Crosby	2.00
DEF	Bills	-1.02	Bills	-1.02

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 32.46 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drew Brees scored 23.56; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 5 – 10, 2012

Fischer

91.74

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh

105.31

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.80 points left. Optimal 103.54 vs. actual 91.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	12.52	Eli Manning	12.52
WR	Marques Colston	7.10	Victor Cruz	8.80
WR	Victor Cruz	8.80	Torrey Smith	8.00
WR	Torrey Smith	8.00	Marques Colston	7.10
RB	Fred Jackson	1.50	Ray Rice	22.80
RB	Ray Rice	22.80	Isaac Redman	3.70
TE	Jared Cook	8.40	Jared Cook	8.40
W/R	Mark Ingram II	1.50	Michael Crabtree	11.10
K	Jason Hanson	11.00	Jason Hanson	11.00
DEF	Falcons	10.12	Falcons	10.12

Carried by One Guy: Ray Rice, 22.80 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Alfred Morris scored 21.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.76 points left. Optimal 115.07 vs. actual 105.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	17.54	Jay Cutler	20.92
WR	Steve Smith	16.10	Eric Decker	7.90
WR	Eric Decker	7.90	A.J. Green	9.50
WR	A.J. Green	9.50	Steve Smith	16.10
RB	Ben Tate	4.30	Ben Tate	4.30
RB	David Wilson	-0.18	Alfred Morris	21.60
TE	Jimmy Graham	17.50	Jimmy Graham	17.50
W/R	Alfred Morris	21.60	Santana Moss	6.20
K	Alex Henery	6.00	Alex Henery	6.00
DEF	Giants	5.05	Giants	5.05

Carried by One Guy: Alfred Morris, 21.60 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 10, 2012

Demich

132.29

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev

128.57

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.48 points left. Optimal 160.77 vs. actual 132.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	25.48	Tony Romo	25.48
WR	Andre Johnson	23.90	Dez Bryant	10.50
WR	Dez Bryant	10.50	Brandon LaFell	14.00
WR	Brandon LaFell	14.00	Andre Johnson	23.90
RB	Willis McGahee	6.40	Maurice Jones-Drew	11.08
RB	Ronnie Brown	5.60	Kevin Smith	23.10
TE	Vernon Davis	11.80	Vernon Davis	11.80
W/R	Kevin Smith	23.10	Kevin Ogletree	29.40
K	Dan Bailey	6.00	Dan Bailey	6.00
DEF	49ers	5.51	49ers	5.51

Carried by One Guy: Tony Romo, 25.48 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.40 points left. Optimal 142.97 vs. actual 128.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	15.00	Matthew Stafford	15.00
WR	Malcom Floyd	14.60	Demaryius Thomas	21.50
WR	Dwayne Bowe	6.80	Anquan Boldin	14.60
WR	Demaryius Thomas	21.50	Malcom Floyd	14.60
RB	Darren Sproles	17.34	Darren Sproles	17.34
RB	Marshawn Lynch	10.70	Marshawn Lynch	10.70
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	10.20	Brandon Pettigrew	10.20
W/R	Anquan Boldin	14.60	Adrian Peterson	21.20
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	8.83	Seahawks	8.83

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 21.50 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tony Romo scored 25.48; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 5 – 10, 2012

Multiple Gore-Gasms

130.72

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

The Big Tebowskis

117.42

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.46 points left. Optimal 160.18 vs. actual 130.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	14.52	Carson Palmer	17.88
WR	Miles Austin	15.30	Lance Moore	23.00
WR	Jeremy Maclin	19.10	James Jones	16.10
WR	Hakeem Nicks	5.80	Jeremy Maclin	19.10
RB	Frank Gore	19.80	Frank Gore	19.80
RB	Chris Johnson	8.10	Michael Bush	16.20
TE	Aaron Hernandez	15.40	Aaron Hernandez	15.40
W/R	Stevan Ridley	24.20	Stevan Ridley	24.20
K	Dan Carpenter	4.00	Dan Carpenter	4.00
DEF	Steelers	4.50	Steelers	4.50

Carried by One Guy: Stevan Ridley, 24.20 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.96 points left. Optimal 133.38 vs. actual 117.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	20.42	Peyton Manning	20.42
WR	Jordy Nelson	10.90	Jordy Nelson	10.90
WR	Danny Amendola	9.82	Danny Amendola	9.82
WR	Percy Harvin	15.16	Percy Harvin	15.16
RB	Arian Foster	20.00	DeMarco Murray	17.00
RB	DeMarco Murray	17.00	Arian Foster	20.00
TE	Brent Celek	8.50	Brent Celek	8.50
W/R	Peyton Hillis	3.90	Jeremy Kerley	19.86
K	Rob Bironas	5.00	Rob Bironas	5.00
DEF	Lions	6.72	Lions	6.72

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 20.42 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Stevan Ridley scored 24.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 5 – 10, 2012

Horgan

101.80

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

118.72

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.38 points left. Optimal 115.18 vs. actual 101.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Vick	17.88	Joe Flacco	19.86
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	8.30	Larry Fitzgerald	8.30
WR	Santonio Holmes	8.80	Santonio Holmes	8.80
WR	DeSean Jackson	10.20	DeSean Jackson	10.20
RB	Michael Turner	3.20	Michael Turner	3.20
RB	Darren McFadden	18.30	Darren McFadden	18.30
TE	Antonio Gates	6.30	Martellus Bennett	12.00
W/R	Robert Meachem	5.90	Sidney Rice	11.60
K	Matt Prater	4.00	Matt Prater	4.00
DEF	Jets	18.92	Jets	18.92

Carried by One Guy: Jets, 18.92 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Julio Jones scored 27.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.40 points left. Optimal 130.12 vs. actual 118.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	16.20	Ben Roethlisberger	16.20
WR	Stevie Johnson	13.50	Julio Jones	27.80
WR	Darrius Heyward-Bey	5.80	Stevie Johnson	13.50
WR	Julio Jones	27.80	Darrius Heyward-Bey	5.80
RB	DeAngelo Williams	0.90	Robert Turbin	1.20
RB	LeSean McCoy	16.60	LeSean McCoy	16.60
TE	Rob Gronkowski	15.00	Rob Gronkowski	15.00
W/R	Robert Turbin	1.20	Nate Washington	12.30
K	Sebastian Janikowski	6.00	Sebastian Janikowski	6.00
DEF	Bears	15.72	Bears	15.72

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 27.80 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 10, 2012

zyg

118.05

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

132.42

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.00 points left. Optimal 151.05 vs. actual 118.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	13.04	Philip Rivers	13.04
WR	Wes Welker	2.90	Stephen Hill	23.40
WR	Vincent Jackson	6.70	Vincent Jackson	6.70
WR	Brandon Marshall	24.40	Brandon Marshall	24.40
RB	Matt Forte	19.50	Toby Gerhart	3.10
RB	Toby Gerhart	3.10	Matt Forte	19.50
TE	Tony Gonzalez	13.80	Tony Gonzalez	13.80
W/R	Titus Young	3.00	Alshon Jeffery	15.50
K	David Akers	16.00	David Akers	16.00
DEF	Texans	15.61	Texans	15.61

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Marshall, 24.40 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: C.J. Spiller scored 26.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 132.42 vs. actual 132.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	24.82	Aaron Rodgers	24.82
WR	Brandon Lloyd	9.40	Brandon Lloyd	9.40
WR	Braylon Edwards	6.80	Braylon Edwards	6.80
WR	Mike Wallace	11.70	Mike Wallace	11.70
RB	Reggie Bush	14.50	Trent Richardson	4.90
RB	Trent Richardson	4.90	Reggie Bush	14.50
TE	Jermichael Finley	14.20	Jermichael Finley	14.20
W/R	C.J. Spiller	26.40	C.J. Spiller	26.40
K	Mike Nugent	5.00	Mike Nugent	5.00
DEF	Eagles	14.70	Eagles	14.70

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Spiller, 26.40 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–1	0.545	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Horgan	0–1	0.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Multiple Gore-Gasms	1–0	0.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–0	0.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
zyg	0–1	0.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	0–1	0.636	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Josh	1–0	0.182	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0
The Big Tebowskis	0–1	0.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
SuckMyVick	1–0	0.455	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Early Morning Doucet	1–0	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2012 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Regular

zyg lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1