2012 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2012

j-mart

123.34

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms

76.34

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.52 points left. Optimal 132.86 vs. actual 123.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	19.50	Jake Locker	26.62
WR	Reggie Wayne	12.80	Antonio Brown	16.64
WR	Roddy White	8.00	Reggie Wayne	12.80
WR	Antonio Brown	16.64	Roddy White	8.00
RB	Jamaal Charles	39.80	Jamaal Charles	39.80
RB	Shonn Greene	5.90	Shonn Greene	5.90
TE	Jacob Tamme	4.60	Jacob Tamme	4.60
W/R	Randall Cobb	3.10	Jackie Battle	5.50
K	Robbie Gould	12.00	Robbie Gould	12.00
DEF	Ravens	1.00	Ravens	1.00

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Charles, 39.80 points (32.3% of positive starter points).

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.18 points left. Optimal 105.52 vs. actual 76.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	10.28	Carson Palmer	18.86
WR	Lance Moore	15.00	Nate Burleson	20.60
WR	Miles Austin	15.20	Lance Moore	15.00
WR	Mike Williams	4.30	Miles Austin	15.20
RB	Frank Gore	5.70	Frank Gore	5.70
RB	Michael Bush	14.30	Michael Bush	14.30
TE	Scott Chandler	3.20	Scott Chandler	3.20
W/R	Stevan Ridley	3.70	James Jones	8.00
K	Matt Bryant	3.00	Matt Bryant	3.00
DEF	Steelers	1.66	Steelers	1.66

Carried by One Guy: Miles Austin, 15.20 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2012

Big Hut

103.55

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

143.95

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.14 points left. Optimal 128.69 vs. actual 103.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	21.40	Robert Griffin III	25.34
WR	Santana Moss	6.80	Cecil Shorts	14.10
WR	Greg Jennings	6.50	Santana Moss	6.80
WR	Calvin Johnson	29.40	Calvin Johnson	29.40
RB	Steven Jackson	4.40	Jacquizz Rodgers	15.20
RB	Doug Martin	8.40	Doug Martin	8.40
TE	Fred Davis	12.50	Fred Davis	12.50
W/R	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	7.80	Donald Brown	10.60
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Patriots	0.35	Patriots	0.35

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Johnson, 29.40 points (28.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.30 points left. Optimal 172.25 vs. actual 143.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Vick	6.18	Joe Flacco	27.58
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	23.90	Larry Fitzgerald	23.90
WR	Santonio Holmes	21.20	Santonio Holmes	21.20
WR	DeSean Jackson	5.80	Robert Meachem	6.30
RB	Darren McFadden	20.50	Darren McFadden	20.50
RB	Andre Brown	28.50	Andre Brown	28.50
TE	Antonio Gates	3.70	Owen Daniels	10.10
W/R	Michael Turner	15.10	Michael Turner	15.10
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Jets	13.07	Jets	13.07

Carried by One Guy: Andre Brown, 28.50 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2012

zyg

81.31

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Josh

132.79

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.40 points left. Optimal 98.71 vs. actual 81.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	3.12	Philip Rivers	3.12
WR	Wes Welker	20.20	Titus Young	16.50
WR	Vincent Jackson	3.40	Wes Welker	20.20
WR	Brandon Marshall	9.60	Brandon Marshall	9.60
RB	Beanie Wells	1.80	Ryan Mathews	8.10
RB	Ryan Mathews	8.10	Evan Royster	4.40
TE	Tony Gonzalez	19.60	Tony Gonzalez	19.60
W/R	Jason Avant	5.30	Alshon Jeffery	7.00
K	David Akers	5.00	David Akers	5.00
DEF	Texans	5.19	Texans	5.19

Carried by One Guy: Wes Welker, 20.20 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.32 points left. Optimal 166.11 vs. actual 132.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	20.10	Tom Brady	20.10
WR	Steve Smith	10.60	Eric Decker	19.86
WR	Eric Decker	19.86	A.J. Green	31.90
WR	A.J. Green	31.90	Steve Smith	10.60
RB	David Wilson	0.98	Bilal Powell	7.90
RB	Alfred Morris	13.80	Alfred Morris	13.80
TE	Jimmy Graham	9.60	Martellus Bennett	16.30
W/R	Greg Little	2.70	T.Y. Hilton	22.40
K	Billy Cundiff	7.00	Billy Cundiff	7.00
DEF	Giants	16.25	Giants	16.25

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 31.90 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2012

Demich

94.25

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

The Big Tebowskis

101.45

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.90 points left. Optimal 105.15 vs. actual 94.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	5.82	Tony Romo	5.82
WR	Andre Johnson	14.20	Dez Bryant	10.06
WR	Dez Bryant	10.06	Emmanuel Sanders	4.80
WR	Brandon LaFell	3.20	Andre Johnson	14.20
RB	Willis McGahee	4.70	Willis McGahee	4.70
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	28.30	Maurice Jones-Drew	28.30
TE	Vernon Davis	13.80	Jermaine Gresham	14.90
W/R	Kevin Smith	0.00	Kevin Ogletree	8.20
K	Dan Bailey	8.00	Dan Bailey	8.00
DEF	49ers	6.17	49ers	6.17

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Maurice Jones-Drew, 28.30 points (30.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Peyton Manning scored 23.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.40 points left. Optimal 134.85 vs. actual 101.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	23.20	Matt Schaub	25.60
WR	Jordy Nelson	2.90	Andrew Hawkins	15.20
WR	Danny Amendola	9.50	Jeremy Kerley	15.20
WR	Percy Harvin	15.78	Percy Harvin	15.78
RB	Arian Foster	19.30	DeMarco Murray	13.00
RB	DeMarco Murray	13.00	Arian Foster	19.30
TE	Jason Witten	1.80	Brent Celek	4.60
W/R	Peyton Hillis	1.10	Davone Bess	11.30
K	Nate Kaeding	4.00	Nate Kaeding	4.00
DEF	Bills	10.87	Bills	10.87

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 23.20 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2012

Fischer

138.86

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

128.20

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 41.10 points left. Optimal 179.96 vs. actual 138.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	16.02	Andy Dalton	26.72
WR	Marques Colston	5.50	Victor Cruz	7.20
WR	Victor Cruz	7.20	Torrey Smith	29.70
WR	Torrey Smith	29.70	Mario Manningham	8.10
RB	Ray Rice	25.50	Mikel Leshoure	23.40
RB	Mark Ingram II	1.10	Ray Rice	25.50
TE	Dennis Pitta	13.50	Dennis Pitta	13.50
W/R	Michael Crabtree	7.00	Daniel Thomas	12.50
K	Jason Hanson	17.00	Jason Hanson	17.00
DEF	Falcons	16.34	Falcons	16.34

Carried by One Guy: Torrey Smith, 29.70 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.90 points left. Optimal 154.10 vs. actual 128.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	34.16	Ben Roethlisberger	34.16
WR	Stevie Johnson	15.60	Julio Jones	15.20
WR	Darrius Heyward-Bey	8.40	Stevie Johnson	15.60
WR	Julio Jones	15.20	Darrius Heyward-Bey	8.40
RB	DeAngelo Williams	8.30	DeAngelo Williams	8.30
RB	LeSean McCoy	9.30	LeSean McCoy	9.30
TE	Rob Gronkowski	3.10	Anthony Fasano	7.20
W/R	Brandon Gibson	2.90	Nate Washington	20.70
K	Garrett Hartley	7.00	Sebastian Janikowski	11.00
DEF	Bears	24.24	Bears	24.24

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 34.16 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Torrey Smith scored 29.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 18 – 24, 2012

Kev

103.37

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

115.24

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.22 points left. Optimal 118.59 vs. actual 103.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	18.32	Matthew Stafford	18.32
WR	Malcom Floyd	6.70	Denarius Moore	13.00
WR	Dwayne Bowe	11.40	Anquan Boldin	6.80
WR	Demaryius Thomas	2.90	Dwayne Bowe	11.40
RB	Adrian Peterson	11.70	Adrian Peterson	11.70
RB	Marshawn Lynch	10.40	Marshawn Lynch	10.40
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	8.10	Brandon Pettigrew	8.10
W/R	Darren Sproles	9.38	Cedric Benson	14.40
K	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00
DEF	Seahawks	12.47	Seahawks	12.47

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 18.32 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mike Wallace scored 24.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.20 points left. Optimal 130.44 vs. actual 115.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	10.62	Andrew Luck	25.52
WR	Brandon Lloyd	17.30	Brandon Lloyd	17.30
WR	Kenny Britt	8.50	Kenny Britt	8.50
WR	Mike Wallace	24.40	Mike Wallace	24.40
RB	Reggie Bush	6.70	C.J. Spiller	12.80
RB	Trent Richardson	14.10	Trent Richardson	14.10
TE	Jermichael Finley	8.00	Jermichael Finley	8.00
W/R	C.J. Spiller	12.80	Andre Roberts	7.00
K	Mike Nugent	9.00	Mike Nugent	9.00
DEF	Eagles	3.82	Eagles	3.82

Carried by One Guy: Mike Wallace, 24.40 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–0	1.909	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Big Hut	0–3	1.091	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Horgan	1–2	1.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Multiple Gore-Gasms	2–1	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	2–1	1.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	2–1	1.364	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
zyg	0–3	1.000	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Kev	1–2	2.000	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Josh	2–1	1.182	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0
The Big Tebowskis	1–2	1.273	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
SuckMyVick	1–2	1.636	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Early Morning Doucet	3–0	2.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2012 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

zyg lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3