2012 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 11 – 17, 2012

Big Hut

110.10

zyg

79.76

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.18 points left. Optimal 124.28 vs. actual 110.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	22.70	Sam Bradford	29.98
WR	Calvin Johnson	19.10	Santana Moss	8.20
WR	Pierre Garcon	9.50	Calvin Johnson	19.10
WR	Demaryius Thomas	3.30	Pierre Garcon	9.50
RB	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	18.60	Steven Jackson	18.60
RB	Doug Martin	5.00	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	18.60
TE	Greg Olsen	8.10	Greg Olsen	8.10
W/R	Steven Jackson	18.60	Greg Jennings	7.00
K	Mason Crosby	3.00	Mason Crosby	3.00
DEF	Patriots	2.20	Patriots	2.20

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 22.70 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.44 points left. Optimal 113.20 vs. actual 79.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	0.00	Philip Rivers	5.24
WR	Anquan Boldin	0.00	Wes Welker	8.36
WR	Wes Welker	8.36	Donnie Avery	5.20
WR	Donnie Avery	5.20	Josh Morgan	8.00
RB	Matt Forte	15.80	Matt Forte	15.80
RB	Ryan Mathews	4.50	Beanie Wells	24.70
TE	Tony Gonzalez	13.90	Tony Gonzalez	13.90
W/R	Joique Bell	4.70	Joique Bell	4.70
K	David Akers	9.00	David Akers	9.00
DEF	Texans	18.30	Texans	18.30

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Texans, 18.30 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 11 – 17, 2012

Horgan

119.41

Multiple Gore-Gasms

106.53

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.96 points left. Optimal 132.37 vs. actual 119.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	25.64	Colin Kaepernick	25.64
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	4.20	Larry Fitzgerald	4.20
WR	Brian Hartline	10.20	Sidney Rice	9.60
WR	Jeremy Kerley	1.74	Brian Hartline	10.20
RB	Michael Turner	12.60	Michael Turner	12.60
RB	Darren McFadden	16.90	Darren McFadden	16.90
TE	Owen Daniels	6.00	Antonio Gates	11.10
W/R	Knowshon Moreno	21.60	Knowshon Moreno	21.60
K	Jason Hanson	5.00	Jason Hanson	5.00
DEF	Broncos	15.53	Broncos	15.53

Carried by One Guy: Colin Kaepernick, 25.64 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.20 points left. Optimal 138.73 vs. actual 106.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	16.44	Cam Newton	17.94
WR	Lance Moore	12.20	Mike Williams	8.30
WR	Hakeem Nicks	5.50	Lance Moore	12.20
WR	Mike Williams	8.30	Jeremy Maclin	7.30
RB	Frank Gore	18.70	Frank Gore	18.70
RB	Stevan Ridley	0.30	Chris Johnson	20.20
TE	Brandon Myers	2.50	Aaron Hernandez	20.20
W/R	Chris Johnson	20.20	Mike Wallace	11.50
K	Matt Bryant	8.00	Matt Bryant	8.00
DEF	Vikings	14.39	Vikings	14.39

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Chris Johnson, 20.20 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Colin Kaepernick scored 25.64; zeroing that score creates a win.

Consolation

Dec 11 – 17, 2012

Demich

96.23

SuckMyVick

118.33

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.70 points left. Optimal 106.93 vs. actual 96.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	23.24	Tony Romo	23.24
WR	Andre Johnson	28.60	Dez Bryant	13.90
WR	Dez Bryant	13.90	Brandon LaFell	0.00
WR	Brandon LaFell	0.00	Andre Johnson	28.60
RB	Rashad Jennings	0.00	William Powell	0.40
RB	William Powell	0.40	Ronnie Hillman	2.90
TE	Vernon Davis	1.50	Jermaine Gresham	9.30
W/R	Brandon Stokley	1.90	Brandon Stokley	1.90
K	Shayne Graham	16.00	Shayne Graham	16.00
DEF	49ers	10.69	49ers	10.69

Carried by One Guy: Andre Johnson, 28.60 points (29.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Julio Jones scored 24.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.18 points left. Optimal 149.51 vs. actual 118.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	7.48	Ben Roethlisberger	21.76
WR	Stevie Johnson	23.50	Julio Jones	24.20
WR	Julio Jones	24.20	Nate Washington	8.20
WR	Josh Gordon	4.20	Stevie Johnson	23.50
RB	DeAngelo Williams	19.40	Vick Ballard	12.50
RB	Vick Ballard	12.50	DeAngelo Williams	19.40
TE	Brent Celek	0.00	Brent Celek	0.00
W/R	Darrius Heyward-Bey	0.00	Brandon Gibson	10.60
K	Sebastian Janikowski	19.00	Sebastian Janikowski	19.00
DEF	Bears	8.05	Packers	10.35

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 24.20 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 11 – 17, 2012

j-mart

98.84

Josh

134.30

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.02 points left. Optimal 131.86 vs. actual 98.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	31.38	Drew Brees	31.38
WR	Reggie Wayne	2.90	Antonio Brown	16.62
WR	Roddy White	2.60	Randall Cobb	15.20
WR	Randall Cobb	15.20	Reggie Wayne	2.90
RB	Jamaal Charles	4.30	Jamaal Charles	4.30
RB	Shonn Greene	7.90	Shonn Greene	7.90
TE	Heath Miller	18.70	Heath Miller	18.70
W/R	Golden Tate	7.90	Golden Tate	7.90
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Blair Walsh	25.00
DEF	Ravens	1.96	Ravens	1.96

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 31.38 points (31.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 41.11 points left. Optimal 175.41 vs. actual 134.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	26.82	Tom Brady	26.82
WR	Steve Smith	16.20	Eric Decker	25.30
WR	Eric Decker	25.30	A.J. Green	14.70
WR	A.J. Green	14.70	Steve Smith	16.20
RB	Mike Tolbert	19.92	Alfred Morris	22.30
RB	Alfred Morris	22.30	Mike Tolbert	19.92
TE	Jimmy Graham	9.40	Jimmy Graham	9.40
W/R	Danario Alexander	0.00	T.Y. Hilton	15.66
K	Lawrence Tynes	0.00	Lawrence Tynes	0.00
DEF	Giants	-0.34	Bengals	25.11

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 26.82 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 11 – 17, 2012

Kev

135.46

The Big Tebowskis

121.43

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.80 points left. Optimal 148.26 vs. actual 135.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	3.84	Matt Schaub	14.44
WR	Malcom Floyd	4.90	Denarius Moore	7.10
WR	Vincent Jackson	11.10	Vincent Jackson	11.10
WR	Brandon Marshall	14.60	Brandon Marshall	14.60
RB	Adrian Peterson	29.20	Adrian Peterson	29.20
RB	Marshawn Lynch	21.20	Marshawn Lynch	21.20
TE	Dallas Clark	8.20	Dallas Clark	8.20
W/R	Darren Sproles	13.56	Darren Sproles	13.56
K	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00
DEF	Seahawks	17.86	Seahawks	17.86

Carried by One Guy: Adrian Peterson, 29.20 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 121.43 vs. actual 121.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	12.16	Peyton Manning	12.16
WR	Danny Amendola	17.06	Cecil Shorts	15.10
WR	Cecil Shorts	15.10	Justin Blackmon	12.30
WR	Justin Blackmon	12.30	Danny Amendola	17.06
RB	Arian Foster	19.90	DeMarco Murray	17.20
RB	DeMarco Murray	17.20	Arian Foster	19.90
TE	Jason Witten	12.80	Jason Witten	12.80
W/R	David Wilson	8.42	David Wilson	8.42
K	Phil Dawson	3.00	Phil Dawson	3.00
DEF	Lions	3.49	Lions	3.49

Carried by One Guy: Arian Foster, 19.90 points (16.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adrian Peterson scored 29.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 11 – 17, 2012

Fischer

39.34

Early Morning Doucet

116.50

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 75.54 points left. Optimal 114.88 vs. actual 39.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	2.44	Andy Dalton	12.88
WR	Marques Colston	7.50	Victor Cruz	3.00
WR	Victor Cruz	3.00	Marques Colston	7.50
WR	Torrey Smith	1.90	Michael Crabtree	28.20
RB	Ray Rice	5.60	Mikel Leshoure	12.90
RB	Mikel Leshoure	12.90	Ray Rice	5.60
TE	Martellus Bennett	2.00	Dennis Pitta	30.00
W/R	Fred Jackson	0.00	Mike Goodson	10.80
K	Connor Barth	0.00	Connor Barth	0.00
DEF	Steelers	4.00	Steelers	4.00

Carried by One Guy: Mikel Leshoure, 12.90 points (32.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 48.70 points left. Optimal 165.20 vs. actual 116.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	25.44	Aaron Rodgers	25.44
WR	Miles Austin	11.40	Brandon Lloyd	26.00
WR	James Jones	26.50	Miles Austin	11.40
WR	Kenny Britt	1.20	James Jones	26.50
RB	C.J. Spiller	19.60	C.J. Spiller	19.60
RB	Trent Richardson	16.70	Trent Richardson	16.70
TE	Jermichael Finley	8.60	Jermichael Finley	8.60
W/R	Bryce Brown	5.00	Danny Woodhead	22.90
K	Robbie Gould	0.00	Shaun Suisham	6.00
DEF	Browns	2.06	Browns	2.06

Carried by One Guy: James Jones, 26.50 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

2012 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Big Hut lineup

zyg lineup

Consolation

Horgan lineup

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Consolation

Demich lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Playoff

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Playoff

Kev lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Playoff

Fischer lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup