2012 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2012

j-mart

160.48

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

124.10

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.00 points left. Optimal 167.48 vs. actual 160.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	31.84	Drew Brees	31.84
WR	Randy Moss	0.00	Jon Baldwin	7.00
WR	Roddy White	34.90	Randall Cobb	11.86
WR	Randall Cobb	11.86	Roddy White	34.90
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	9.20	Ahmad Bradshaw	9.20
RB	Jamaal Charles	20.60	Jamaal Charles	20.60
TE	Jacob Tamme	6.30	Jacob Tamme	6.30
W/R	Jackie Battle	22.10	Jackie Battle	22.10
K	Robbie Gould	10.00	Robbie Gould	10.00
DEF	Ravens	13.68	Ravens	13.68

Carried by One Guy: Roddy White, 34.90 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.50 points left. Optimal 133.60 vs. actual 124.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	20.36	Andy Dalton	22.26
WR	Marques Colston	27.80	Victor Cruz	23.40
WR	Victor Cruz	23.40	Torrey Smith	18.70
WR	Torrey Smith	18.70	Marques Colston	27.80
RB	Ray Rice	13.60	Fred Jackson	7.40
RB	Mikel Leshoure	6.30	Ray Rice	13.60
TE	Dennis Pitta	0.00	Dennis Pitta	0.00
W/R	Michael Crabtree	2.50	Mario Manningham	9.00
K	Jason Hanson	8.00	Jason Hanson	8.00
DEF	Falcons	3.44	Falcons	3.44

Carried by One Guy: Marques Colston, 27.80 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2012

Big Hut

98.84

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms

154.76

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.00 points left. Optimal 100.84 vs. actual 98.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	26.76	Matt Ryan	26.76
WR	Greg Jennings	7.40	Greg Jennings	7.40
WR	Calvin Johnson	7.90	Calvin Johnson	7.90
WR	Pierre Garcon	8.50	Pierre Garcon	8.50
RB	Jacquizz Rodgers	8.34	Jacquizz Rodgers	8.34
RB	Doug Martin	5.20	Steven Jackson	7.20
TE	Fred Davis	9.00	Fred Davis	9.00
W/R	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	8.40	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	8.40
K	Mason Crosby	4.00	Mason Crosby	4.00
DEF	Patriots	13.34	Patriots	13.34

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 26.76 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.20 points left. Optimal 178.96 vs. actual 154.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	31.20	Cam Newton	31.20
WR	Lance Moore	10.20	Mike Williams	15.50
WR	Miles Austin	13.70	Miles Austin	13.70
WR	Jeremy Maclin	1.20	James Jones	20.10
RB	Frank Gore	14.50	Frank Gore	14.50
RB	Chris Johnson	18.70	Chris Johnson	18.70
TE	Kyle Rudolph	1.80	Kyle Rudolph	1.80
W/R	Stevan Ridley	24.60	Stevan Ridley	24.60
K	Matt Bryant	14.00	Matt Bryant	14.00
DEF	Vikings	24.86	Vikings	24.86

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 31.20 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2012

Kev

145.96

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Josh

130.66

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.30 points left. Optimal 162.26 vs. actual 145.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	22.16	Matthew Stafford	22.16
WR	Malcom Floyd	3.30	Demaryius Thomas	12.80
WR	Dwayne Bowe	22.30	Anquan Boldin	19.60
WR	Demaryius Thomas	12.80	Dwayne Bowe	22.30
RB	Adrian Peterson	16.20	Adrian Peterson	16.20
RB	Marshawn Lynch	25.50	Marshawn Lynch	25.50
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	10.20	Brandon Pettigrew	10.20
W/R	Darren Sproles	16.80	Darren Sproles	16.80
K	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00
DEF	Seahawks	6.70	Seahawks	6.70

Carried by One Guy: Marshawn Lynch, 25.50 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.90 points left. Optimal 135.56 vs. actual 130.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	34.00	Tom Brady	34.00
WR	Steve Smith	5.70	Eric Decker	17.40
WR	Eric Decker	17.40	A.J. Green	22.70
WR	A.J. Green	22.70	Steve Smith	5.70
RB	Jonathan Stewart	5.30	Alfred Morris	19.40
RB	Alfred Morris	19.40	Jonathan Stewart	5.30
TE	Jimmy Graham	11.10	Jimmy Graham	11.10
W/R	Ramses Barden	4.60	Greg Little	9.50
K	Lawrence Tynes	4.00	Lawrence Tynes	4.00
DEF	Giants	6.46	Giants	6.46

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 34.00 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marshawn Lynch scored 25.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2012

zyg

144.18

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

The Big Tebowskis

164.35

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.70 points left. Optimal 146.88 vs. actual 144.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	14.36	Philip Rivers	14.36
WR	Wes Welker	17.68	Wes Welker	17.68
WR	Vincent Jackson	21.04	Vincent Jackson	21.04
WR	Brandon Marshall	25.30	Brandon Marshall	25.30
RB	Ryan Mathews	9.20	Ryan Mathews	9.20
RB	Joique Bell	10.40	Joique Bell	10.40
TE	Tony Gonzalez	7.60	Tony Gonzalez	7.60
W/R	Titus Young	2.70	Matt Forte	5.40
K	David Akers	11.00	David Akers	11.00
DEF	Texans	24.90	Texans	24.90

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Marshall, 25.30 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Peyton Manning scored 27.42; zeroing that score creates a win.

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.28 points left. Optimal 190.63 vs. actual 164.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	27.42	Peyton Manning	27.42
WR	Jordy Nelson	19.30	Donald Jones	16.00
WR	Danny Amendola	15.70	Jordy Nelson	19.30
WR	Percy Harvin	14.00	Danny Amendola	15.70
RB	Arian Foster	15.90	Brandon Bolden	23.30
RB	DeMarco Murray	11.60	Arian Foster	15.90
TE	Jason Witten	25.70	Jason Witten	25.70
W/R	Andrew Hawkins	5.40	Davone Bess	17.98
K	Matt Prater	15.00	Matt Prater	15.00
DEF	Bengals	14.33	Bengals	14.33

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 27.42 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2012

Demich

107.33

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

122.38

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.20 points left. Optimal 127.53 vs. actual 107.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	8.28	Tony Romo	8.28
WR	Andre Johnson	7.10	Dez Bryant	18.50
WR	Dez Bryant	18.50	Andre Johnson	7.10
WR	Brandon LaFell	0.00	Eddie Royal	9.10
RB	Willis McGahee	24.50	Willis McGahee	24.50
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	10.50	Maurice Jones-Drew	10.50
TE	Vernon Davis	3.80	Jermaine Gresham	7.20
W/R	Kevin Smith	0.00	LeGarrette Blount	7.70
K	Dan Bailey	4.00	Dan Bailey	4.00
DEF	49ers	30.65	49ers	30.65

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: 49ers, 30.65 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bears scored 25.58; zeroing that score creates a win.

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 122.38 vs. actual 122.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	25.40	Ryan Fitzpatrick	25.40
WR	Nate Washington	5.80	Julio Jones	3.50
WR	Stevie Johnson	3.30	Nate Washington	5.80
WR	Julio Jones	3.50	Stevie Johnson	3.30
RB	DeAngelo Williams	11.60	DeAngelo Williams	11.60
RB	LeSean McCoy	17.50	LeSean McCoy	17.50
TE	Rob Gronkowski	18.90	Rob Gronkowski	18.90
W/R	Brandon Gibson	3.80	Brandon Gibson	3.80
K	Garrett Hartley	7.00	Garrett Hartley	7.00
DEF	Bears	25.58	Bears	25.58

Carried by One Guy: Bears, 25.58 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 25 – Oct 1, 2012

Horgan

123.32

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

126.69

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 48.20 points left. Optimal 171.52 vs. actual 123.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	24.64	Joe Flacco	24.64
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	16.40	Larry Fitzgerald	16.40
WR	Santonio Holmes	2.90	Sidney Rice	6.10
WR	DeSean Jackson	18.90	DeSean Jackson	18.90
RB	Michael Turner	26.60	Michael Turner	26.60
RB	Darren McFadden	4.30	Darren McFadden	4.30
TE	Antonio Gates	7.40	Owen Daniels	16.20
W/R	Ryan Williams	3.10	Brian Hartline	39.30
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Cardinals	13.08	Cardinals	13.08

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Turner, 26.60 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 30.06; zeroing that score creates a win.

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.90 points left. Optimal 131.59 vs. actual 126.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	30.06	Aaron Rodgers	30.06
WR	Brandon Lloyd	12.50	Andre Roberts	28.80
WR	Kenny Britt	0.00	Brandon Lloyd	12.50
WR	Andre Roberts	28.80	Kenny Britt	0.00
RB	Reggie Bush	6.70	Kendall Hunter	11.60
RB	Trent Richardson	18.40	Trent Richardson	18.40
TE	Jermichael Finley	7.40	Jermichael Finley	7.40
W/R	Danny Woodhead	9.30	Danny Woodhead	9.30
K	Mike Nugent	9.00	Mike Nugent	9.00
DEF	Eagles	4.53	Eagles	4.53

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 30.06 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–0	2.818	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Big Hut	0–4	1.091	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Horgan	1–3	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Multiple Gore-Gasms	3–1	2.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	2–2	2.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	2–2	1.455	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
zyg	0–4	1.636	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Kev	2–2	2.727	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Josh	2–2	1.727	+3.0	+0.273	1 / 1
The Big Tebowskis	2–2	2.273	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
SuckMyVick	2–2	1.818	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Early Morning Doucet	4–0	2.818	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0

2012 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

zyg lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4