2012 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2012

j-mart

115.69

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

zyg

97.84

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.90 points left. Optimal 147.59 vs. actual 115.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kevin Kolb	13.72	Kevin Kolb	13.72
WR	Reggie Wayne	9.20	Randall Cobb	18.88
WR	Roddy White	16.20	Reggie Wayne	9.20
WR	Antonio Brown	4.20	Roddy White	16.20
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	20.50	Ahmad Bradshaw	20.50
RB	Jamaal Charles	5.70	Jamaal Charles	5.70
TE	Heath Miller	9.70	Heath Miller	9.70
W/R	Randall Cobb	18.88	Shonn Greene	36.10
K	Blair Walsh	9.00	Blair Walsh	9.00
DEF	Ravens	8.59	Ravens	8.59

Carried by One Guy: Ahmad Bradshaw, 20.50 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.50 points left. Optimal 98.34 vs. actual 97.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	5.64	Philip Rivers	5.64
WR	Wes Welker	28.16	Wes Welker	28.16
WR	Vincent Jackson	20.60	Vincent Jackson	20.60
WR	Donnie Avery	7.90	Donnie Avery	7.90
RB	Ryan Mathews	11.30	Ryan Mathews	11.30
RB	Joique Bell	4.60	Joique Bell	4.60
TE	Tony Gonzalez	6.20	Tony Gonzalez	6.20
W/R	Titus Young	1.60	Toby Gerhart	2.10
K	David Akers	4.00	David Akers	4.00
DEF	Texans	7.84	Texans	7.84

Carried by One Guy: Wes Welker, 28.16 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ahmad Bradshaw scored 20.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2012

Big Hut

90.97

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Demich

110.84

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.14 points left. Optimal 114.11 vs. actual 90.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	9.46	Sam Bradford	26.00
WR	Calvin Johnson	18.50	Demaryius Thomas	10.70
WR	Pierre Garcon	0.00	Santana Moss	6.60
WR	Demaryius Thomas	10.70	Calvin Johnson	18.50
RB	Steven Jackson	11.50	Doug Martin	14.10
RB	Doug Martin	14.10	Steven Jackson	11.50
TE	Fred Davis	6.10	Fred Davis	6.10
W/R	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	7.50	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	7.50
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Patriots	7.11	Patriots	7.11

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Johnson, 18.50 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dez Bryant scored 28.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.42 points left. Optimal 128.26 vs. actual 110.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Christian Ponder	21.38	Christian Ponder	21.38
WR	Brandon Stokley	12.80	Dez Bryant	28.20
WR	Andre Johnson	11.50	Brandon Stokley	12.80
WR	Dez Bryant	28.20	Andre Johnson	11.50
RB	Willis McGahee	11.80	Willis McGahee	11.80
RB	Ronnie Brown	5.10	Ronnie Brown	5.10
TE	Vernon Davis	5.20	Jermaine Gresham	14.30
W/R	Eddie Royal	3.48	LeGarrette Blount	11.80
K	Greg Zuerlein	7.00	Greg Zuerlein	7.00
DEF	49ers	4.38	49ers	4.38

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 28.20 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2012

Horgan

101.93

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

122.21

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.20 points left. Optimal 140.13 vs. actual 101.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Vick	24.34	Michael Vick	24.34
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	18.30	Larry Fitzgerald	18.30
WR	DeSean Jackson	8.44	Sidney Rice	15.60
WR	Brian Hartline	0.00	DeSean Jackson	8.44
RB	Michael Turner	4.40	Michael Turner	4.40
RB	Darren McFadden	15.30	Darren McFadden	15.30
TE	Owen Daniels	6.10	Antonio Gates	23.10
W/R	Rashard Mendenhall	2.20	Alex Green	7.80
K	Jason Hanson	14.00	Jason Hanson	14.00
DEF	Cardinals	8.85	Cardinals	8.85

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Vick, 24.34 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ray Rice scored 23.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.52 points left. Optimal 143.73 vs. actual 122.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	11.52	Andy Dalton	21.74
WR	Michael Crabtree	4.10	Victor Cruz	14.80
WR	Victor Cruz	14.80	Torrey Smith	9.40
WR	Torrey Smith	9.40	Mario Manningham	10.40
RB	Ray Rice	23.10	Ray Rice	23.10
RB	Mikel Leshoure	10.90	Isaac Redman	15.90
TE	Dennis Pitta	5.30	Dennis Pitta	5.30
W/R	Fred Jackson	14.80	Fred Jackson	14.80
K	Phil Dawson	11.00	Phil Dawson	11.00
DEF	Falcons	17.29	Falcons	17.29

Carried by One Guy: Ray Rice, 23.10 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2012

Josh

141.43

Rank 2; -4.5 luck points

The Big Tebowskis

150.80

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.72 points left. Optimal 149.15 vs. actual 141.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	21.80	Tom Brady	21.80
WR	Eric Decker	18.80	Eric Decker	18.80
WR	A.J. Green	31.00	A.J. Green	31.00
WR	T.Y. Hilton	4.60	Chris Givens	10.40
RB	William Powell	9.28	Alfred Morris	12.10
RB	Alfred Morris	12.10	Daryl Richardson	10.90
TE	Dustin Keller	1.10	Martellus Bennett	1.40
W/R	Domenik Hixon	9.80	Domenik Hixon	9.80
K	Lawrence Tynes	13.00	Lawrence Tynes	13.00
DEF	Giants	19.95	Giants	19.95

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 31.00 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jordy Nelson scored 36.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.80 points left. Optimal 161.60 vs. actual 150.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	24.16	Peyton Manning	24.16
WR	Jordy Nelson	36.60	Jordy Nelson	36.60
WR	Percy Harvin	23.90	Davone Bess	7.20
WR	Andrew Hawkins	6.20	Percy Harvin	23.90
RB	Arian Foster	16.60	DeMarco Murray	10.20
RB	DeMarco Murray	10.20	Arian Foster	16.60
TE	Jason Witten	11.80	Jason Witten	11.80
W/R	Davone Bess	7.20	Felix Jones	17.00
K	Shayne Graham	8.00	Shayne Graham	8.00
DEF	Steelers	6.14	Steelers	6.14

Carried by One Guy: Jordy Nelson, 36.60 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2012

Kev

118.03

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

106.51

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.04 points left. Optimal 138.07 vs. actual 118.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	23.14	Robert Griffin III	37.08
WR	Anquan Boldin	12.30	Kendall Wright	10.10
WR	Nate Burleson	12.60	Anquan Boldin	12.30
WR	Dwayne Bowe	4.00	Nate Burleson	12.60
RB	Adrian Peterson	16.40	Adrian Peterson	16.40
RB	Marshawn Lynch	5.70	Marshawn Lynch	5.70
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	5.30	Brandon Pettigrew	5.30
W/R	Denarius Moore	20.90	Denarius Moore	20.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00
DEF	Dolphins	7.69	Dolphins	7.69

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 23.14 points (19.6% of positive starter points).

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.80 points left. Optimal 119.31 vs. actual 106.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	19.92	Ben Roethlisberger	19.92
WR	Stevie Johnson	11.20	Julio Jones	8.30
WR	Julio Jones	8.30	Josh Gordon	17.40
WR	Josh Gordon	17.40	Stevie Johnson	11.20
RB	LeSean McCoy	14.30	Vick Ballard	5.20
RB	Vick Ballard	5.20	LeSean McCoy	14.30
TE	Rob Gronkowski	9.10	Anthony Fasano	11.30
W/R	Darrius Heyward-Bey	2.00	Brandon Gibson	12.60
K	Sebastian Janikowski	9.00	Sebastian Janikowski	9.00
DEF	Packers	10.09	Packers	10.09

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 19.92 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matthew Stafford scored 23.14; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 9 – 15, 2012

Multiple Gore-Gasms

96.38

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

111.86

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.70 points left. Optimal 123.08 vs. actual 96.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	2.50	Alex Smith	2.50
WR	Miles Austin	4.10	Mike Williams	21.30
WR	James Jones	16.80	James Jones	16.80
WR	Jeremy Maclin	24.00	Jeremy Maclin	24.00
RB	Frank Gore	7.60	Frank Gore	7.60
RB	Stevan Ridley	3.90	Chris Johnson	13.40
TE	Kyle Rudolph	16.60	Kyle Rudolph	16.60
W/R	Hakeem Nicks	5.90	Hakeem Nicks	5.90
K	Matt Bryant	13.00	Matt Bryant	13.00
DEF	Vikings	1.98	Vikings	1.98

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Maclin, 24.00 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 41.22; zeroing that score creates a win.

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.96 points left. Optimal 137.82 vs. actual 111.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	41.22	Aaron Rodgers	41.22
WR	Brandon Lloyd	11.00	Brandon Lloyd	11.00
WR	Kenny Britt	14.20	Kenny Britt	14.20
WR	Mike Wallace	16.40	Mike Wallace	16.40
RB	Reggie Bush	8.60	C.J. Spiller	19.00
RB	Trent Richardson	6.40	Montario Hardesty	13.00
TE	Scott Chandler	0.90	Jermichael Finley	2.20
W/R	Andre Roberts	2.80	Danny Woodhead	10.46
K	Mike Nugent	7.00	Mike Nugent	7.00
DEF	Eagles	3.34	Eagles	3.34

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 41.22 points (36.8% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–0	4.455	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Big Hut	0–6	1.455	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Horgan	1–5	1.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Multiple Gore-Gasms	4–2	2.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	4–2	3.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	3–3	2.000	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
zyg	1–5	2.727	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Kev	3–3	4.000	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Josh	3–3	2.909	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
The Big Tebowskis	4–2	4.000	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
SuckMyVick	2–4	2.636	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Early Morning Doucet	5–1	3.545	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0

2012 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

zyg lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Regular

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6