2012 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2012

j-mart

114.88

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

86.02

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.48 points left. Optimal 124.36 vs. actual 114.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	20.76	Drew Brees	20.76
WR	Reggie Wayne	10.70	Randall Cobb	21.22
WR	Roddy White	18.30	Reggie Wayne	10.70
WR	Antonio Brown	0.00	Roddy White	18.30
RB	Jamaal Charles	13.80	Jamaal Charles	13.80
RB	Shonn Greene	6.40	Shonn Greene	6.40
TE	Heath Miller	3.20	Heath Miller	3.20
W/R	Randall Cobb	21.22	Shaun Draughn	3.48
K	Blair Walsh	0.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Ravens	20.50	Ravens	20.50

Carried by One Guy: Randall Cobb, 21.22 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.02 points left. Optimal 91.04 vs. actual 86.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	15.74	Andrew Luck	15.76
WR	Brandon Lloyd	6.50	Andre Roberts	1.40
WR	Mike Wallace	2.40	Brandon Lloyd	6.50
WR	Andre Roberts	1.40	Mike Wallace	2.40
RB	Reggie Bush	4.50	C.J. Spiller	14.50
RB	C.J. Spiller	14.50	Kendall Hunter	9.50
TE	Jermichael Finley	14.10	Jermichael Finley	14.10
W/R	Trent Richardson	17.40	Trent Richardson	17.40
K	Shaun Suisham	3.00	Shaun Suisham	3.00
DEF	Buccaneers	6.48	Buccaneers	6.48

Carried by One Guy: Trent Richardson, 17.40 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2012

Multiple Gore-Gasms

110.90

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Josh

149.84

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.40 points left. Optimal 115.30 vs. actual 110.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	18.08	Cam Newton	18.08
WR	Lance Moore	18.30	Lance Moore	18.30
WR	Miles Austin	8.80	Miles Austin	8.80
WR	James Jones	4.30	James Jones	4.30
RB	Frank Gore	7.80	Stevan Ridley	8.80
RB	Stevan Ridley	8.80	Frank Gore	7.80
TE	Brandon Myers	14.50	Brandon Myers	14.50
W/R	Jeremy Maclin	0.00	Mike Williams	4.40
K	Matt Bryant	13.00	Matt Bryant	13.00
DEF	Commanders	17.32	Commanders	17.32

Carried by One Guy: Lance Moore, 18.30 points (16.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.50 points left. Optimal 166.34 vs. actual 149.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	27.24	Tom Brady	27.24
WR	Steve Smith	8.60	Eric Decker	9.30
WR	Eric Decker	9.30	Danario Alexander	25.10
WR	A.J. Green	18.10	A.J. Green	18.10
RB	Jonathan Stewart	13.80	Alfred Morris	8.80
RB	Alfred Morris	8.80	Jonathan Stewart	13.80
TE	Jimmy Graham	11.90	Jimmy Graham	11.90
W/R	T.Y. Hilton	28.60	T.Y. Hilton	28.60
K	Matt Prater	10.00	Matt Prater	10.00
DEF	Bengals	13.50	Bengals	13.50

Carried by One Guy: T.Y. Hilton, 28.60 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2012

Fischer

104.17

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Kev

89.45

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.30 points left. Optimal 108.47 vs. actual 104.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	24.50	Andy Dalton	24.50
WR	Marques Colston	8.90	Marques Colston	8.90
WR	Michael Crabtree	10.60	Mario Manningham	5.50
WR	Torrey Smith	1.20	Michael Crabtree	10.60
RB	Ray Rice	11.80	Chris Ivory	3.70
RB	Chris Ivory	3.70	Ray Rice	11.80
TE	Joel Dreessen	4.80	Joel Dreessen	4.80
W/R	Mikel Leshoure	14.70	Mikel Leshoure	14.70
K	Connor Barth	10.00	Connor Barth	10.00
DEF	Falcons	13.97	Falcons	13.97

Carried by One Guy: Andy Dalton, 24.50 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 45.24 points left. Optimal 134.69 vs. actual 89.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	9.84	Matt Schaub	39.08
WR	Vincent Jackson	20.40	Denarius Moore	0.90
WR	Brandon Marshall	9.10	Vincent Jackson	20.40
WR	Denarius Moore	0.90	Brandon Marshall	9.10
RB	Darren Sproles	0.00	Pierre Thomas	7.30
RB	LaRod Stephens-Howling	22.30	LaRod Stephens-Howling	22.30
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	4.20	Brandon Pettigrew	4.20
W/R	Dwayne Bowe	0.00	Malcom Floyd	8.70
K	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00
DEF	Jets	11.71	Jets	11.71

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: LaRod Stephens-Howling, 22.30 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Andy Dalton scored 24.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2012

Demich

161.02

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

zyg

99.78

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.40 points left. Optimal 177.42 vs. actual 161.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	17.52	Tony Romo	17.52
WR	Andre Johnson	42.30	Dez Bryant	28.50
WR	Dez Bryant	28.50	Brandon LaFell	17.80
WR	Brandon LaFell	17.80	Andre Johnson	42.30
RB	Willis McGahee	7.80	Willis McGahee	7.80
RB	Rashad Jennings	3.88	Rashad Jennings	3.88
TE	Jermaine Gresham	9.90	Vernon Davis	17.30
W/R	Ryan Broyles	4.50	Brandon Stokley	13.50
K	Shayne Graham	12.00	Shayne Graham	12.00
DEF	49ers	16.82	49ers	16.82

Carried by One Guy: Andre Johnson, 42.30 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.40 points left. Optimal 108.18 vs. actual 99.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	32.40	Robert Griffin III	32.40
WR	Anquan Boldin	11.90	Anquan Boldin	11.90
WR	Wes Welker	11.50	Wes Welker	11.50
WR	Donnie Avery	4.90	Donnie Avery	4.90
RB	Matt Forte	8.20	Ryan Mathews	10.30
RB	Ryan Mathews	10.30	Matt Forte	8.20
TE	Tony Gonzalez	4.80	Tony Gonzalez	4.80
W/R	Joique Bell	1.40	Jalen Parmele	9.80
K	David Akers	12.00	David Akers	12.00
DEF	Texans	2.38	Texans	2.38

Carried by One Guy: Robert Griffin III, 32.40 points (32.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2012

Horgan

74.58

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

The Big Tebowskis

115.07

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.04 points left. Optimal 92.62 vs. actual 74.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	18.68	Josh Freeman	22.62
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	1.60	Jeremy Kerley	5.70
WR	DeSean Jackson	1.50	Larry Fitzgerald	1.60
WR	Brian Hartline	4.90	Brian Hartline	4.90
RB	Michael Turner	10.60	Michael Turner	10.60
RB	Rashard Mendenhall	6.50	Rashard Mendenhall	6.50
TE	Antonio Gates	2.70	Owen Daniels	8.70
W/R	Jeremy Kerley	5.70	Jonathan Dwyer	9.60
K	Jason Hanson	7.00	Jason Hanson	7.00
DEF	Broncos	15.40	Broncos	15.40

Carried by One Guy: Carson Palmer, 18.68 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 46.90 points left. Optimal 161.97 vs. actual 115.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	20.80	Peyton Manning	20.80
WR	Jordy Nelson	6.00	Cecil Shorts	15.60
WR	Davone Bess	14.00	Justin Blackmon	35.10
WR	Danny Amendola	7.60	Davone Bess	14.00
RB	Felix Jones	12.50	Mark Ingram II	13.30
RB	Arian Foster	10.00	Bilal Powell	19.00
TE	Jason Witten	8.60	Jason Witten	8.60
W/R	Marcel Reece	23.30	Marcel Reece	23.30
K	Kai Forbath	6.00	Kai Forbath	6.00
DEF	Cowboys	6.27	Cowboys	6.27

Carried by One Guy: Marcel Reece, 23.30 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 13 – 19, 2012

Big Hut

126.35

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

99.67

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.56 points left. Optimal 145.91 vs. actual 126.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	3.74	Sam Bradford	11.50
WR	Devery Henderson	0.80	Demaryius Thomas	11.70
WR	Calvin Johnson	22.80	Santana Moss	12.60
WR	Demaryius Thomas	11.70	Calvin Johnson	22.80
RB	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	19.30	Doug Martin	18.10
RB	Doug Martin	18.10	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	19.30
TE	Greg Olsen	5.20	Greg Olsen	5.20
W/R	Steven Jackson	9.60	Steven Jackson	9.60
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Patriots	29.11	Patriots	29.11

Carried by One Guy: Patriots, 29.11 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.06 points left. Optimal 132.73 vs. actual 99.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	8.22	Ryan Fitzpatrick	8.22
WR	Stevie Johnson	10.90	Josh Gordon	7.80
WR	Julio Jones	4.80	Stevie Johnson	10.90
WR	Josh Gordon	7.80	Brandon Gibson	14.40
RB	LeSean McCoy	12.20	Vick Ballard	8.40
RB	Vick Ballard	8.40	LeSean McCoy	12.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	31.20	Rob Gronkowski	31.20
W/R	Darrius Heyward-Bey	8.90	Darrius Heyward-Bey	8.90
K	Sebastian Janikowski	6.00	Garrett Hartley	9.00
DEF	Bears	1.25	Packers	21.71

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Rob Gronkowski, 31.20 points (31.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patriots scored 29.11; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	8–3	7.182	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	2–9	4.636	-6.0	-0.545	1 / 3
Horgan	3–8	3.636	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Multiple Gore-Gasms	5–6	5.636	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 3
Fischer	6–5	5.364	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Demich	5–6	3.636	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
zyg	4–7	4.364	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 2
Kev	7–4	8.000	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Josh	6–5	6.182	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
The Big Tebowskis	8–3	7.182	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
SuckMyVick	4–7	5.182	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
Early Morning Doucet	8–3	5.000	+4.5	+0.409	3 / 0

2012 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Regular

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

zyg lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11