2012 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2012

j-mart

114.35

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

The Big Tebowskis

122.18

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.46 points left. Optimal 122.81 vs. actual 114.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	15.46	Drew Brees	15.46
WR	Reggie Wayne	17.30	Randall Cobb	23.82
WR	Antonio Brown	2.90	Reggie Wayne	17.30
WR	Randall Cobb	23.82	Roddy White	17.30
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	4.80	Ahmad Bradshaw	4.80
RB	Jamaal Charles	8.10	Jamaal Charles	8.10
TE	Heath Miller	6.80	Heath Miller	6.80
W/R	Roddy White	17.30	Shaun Draughn	11.36
K	Blair Walsh	10.00	Blair Walsh	10.00
DEF	Ravens	7.87	Ravens	7.87

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Randall Cobb, 23.82 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chargers scored 25.26; zeroing that score creates a win.

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.52 points left. Optimal 141.70 vs. actual 122.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	19.44	Peyton Manning	19.44
WR	Davone Bess	9.70	Cecil Shorts	7.10
WR	Percy Harvin	3.18	Davone Bess	9.70
WR	Dexter McCluster	2.40	Kevin Ogletree	17.10
RB	Felix Jones	13.40	Felix Jones	13.40
RB	Arian Foster	19.10	Arian Foster	19.10
TE	Jason Witten	8.60	Jason Witten	8.60
W/R	Cecil Shorts	7.10	Andre Brown	8.00
K	Robbie Gould	14.00	Robbie Gould	14.00
DEF	Chargers	25.26	Chargers	25.26

Carried by One Guy: Chargers, 25.26 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2012

Big Hut

109.78

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Josh

156.00

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures unavailable: inconsistent-eligibility.

Carried by One Guy: Doug Martin, 55.20 points (50.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Roster evidence flags: inconsistent-eligibility.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 156.00 vs. actual 156.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	21.62	Russell Wilson	21.62
WR	Steve Smith	11.60	Eric Decker	25.90
WR	Eric Decker	25.90	A.J. Green	20.00
WR	A.J. Green	20.00	Steve Smith	11.60
RB	Jonathan Stewart	6.20	Alfred Morris	7.60
RB	Alfred Morris	7.60	Jonathan Stewart	6.20
TE	Jimmy Graham	17.20	Jimmy Graham	17.20
W/R	T.Y. Hilton	21.88	T.Y. Hilton	21.88
K	Lawrence Tynes	9.00	Lawrence Tynes	9.00
DEF	Giants	15.00	Giants	15.00

Carried by One Guy: Eric Decker, 25.90 points (16.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2012

Horgan

134.49

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Kev

157.46

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.10 points left. Optimal 148.59 vs. actual 134.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Vick	18.18	Michael Vick	18.18
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	16.40	Larry Fitzgerald	16.40
WR	DeSean Jackson	19.50	DeSean Jackson	19.50
WR	Brian Hartline	16.70	Brian Hartline	16.70
RB	Michael Turner	18.20	Alex Green	8.80
RB	Darren McFadden	2.70	Michael Turner	18.20
TE	Antonio Gates	11.80	Owen Daniels	14.20
W/R	Alex Green	8.80	Sidney Rice	14.40
K	Jason Hanson	8.00	Jason Hanson	8.00
DEF	Broncos	14.21	Broncos	14.21

Carried by One Guy: DeSean Jackson, 19.50 points (14.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brandon Marshall scored 36.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.76 points left. Optimal 173.22 vs. actual 157.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	11.20	Matt Schaub	18.62
WR	Vincent Jackson	15.40	Malcom Floyd	12.80
WR	Brandon Marshall	36.70	Vincent Jackson	15.40
WR	Denarius Moore	8.60	Brandon Marshall	36.70
RB	Adrian Peterson	34.80	Adrian Peterson	34.80
RB	Marshawn Lynch	24.00	Marshawn Lynch	24.00
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	1.60	Brandon Pettigrew	1.60
W/R	Pierre Thomas	8.76	LaRod Stephens-Howling	12.90
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Seahawks	10.40	Seahawks	10.40

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Marshall, 36.70 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2012

Multiple Gore-Gasms

94.94

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

zyg

99.46

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.60 points left. Optimal 133.54 vs. actual 94.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	21.74	Cam Newton	21.74
WR	Miles Austin	11.10	Mike Williams	14.80
WR	James Jones	14.10	Miles Austin	11.10
WR	Hakeem Nicks	1.50	James Jones	14.10
RB	Michael Bush	3.80	Michael Bush	3.80
RB	Chris Johnson	21.10	Chris Johnson	21.10
TE	Kyle Rudolph	0.00	Brandon Myers	21.90
W/R	Jeremy Maclin	3.80	Lance Moore	7.20
K	Matt Bryant	15.00	Matt Bryant	15.00
DEF	Vikings	2.80	Vikings	2.80

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 21.74 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matt Forte scored 23.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.10 points left. Optimal 115.56 vs. actual 99.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	13.90	Philip Rivers	14.60
WR	Anquan Boldin	10.20	Anquan Boldin	10.20
WR	Donnie Avery	15.30	Donnie Avery	15.30
WR	Titus Young	3.00	Josh Morgan	8.50
RB	Matt Forte	23.80	Ryan Mathews	8.20
RB	Ryan Mathews	8.20	Matt Forte	23.80
TE	Tony Gonzalez	5.60	Tony Gonzalez	5.60
W/R	Josh Morgan	8.50	Joique Bell	18.40
K	David Akers	0.00	David Akers	0.00
DEF	Texans	10.96	Texans	10.96

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 23.80 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2012

Fischer

100.81

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Demich

94.15

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.66 points left. Optimal 131.47 vs. actual 100.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	3.00	Andy Dalton	15.56
WR	Marques Colston	12.60	Victor Cruz	9.20
WR	Victor Cruz	9.20	Torrey Smith	12.60
WR	Torrey Smith	12.60	Marques Colston	12.60
RB	Fred Jackson	6.00	Ray Rice	17.40
RB	Ray Rice	17.40	Isaac Redman	24.10
TE	Martellus Bennett	5.50	Martellus Bennett	5.50
W/R	Mikel Leshoure	25.00	Mikel Leshoure	25.00
K	Rob Bironas	4.00	Rob Bironas	4.00
DEF	Falcons	5.51	Falcons	5.51

Carried by One Guy: Mikel Leshoure, 25.00 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.92 points left. Optimal 105.07 vs. actual 94.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	18.84	Tony Romo	18.84
WR	Brandon Stokley	5.80	Emmanuel Sanders	10.52
WR	Andre Johnson	17.80	Ryan Broyles	8.20
WR	Dez Bryant	2.00	Andre Johnson	17.80
RB	Willis McGahee	7.50	Willis McGahee	7.50
RB	Rashad Jennings	8.70	Rashad Jennings	8.70
TE	Jermaine Gresham	15.80	Jermaine Gresham	15.80
W/R	Ronnie Brown	9.80	Ronnie Brown	9.80
K	Shayne Graham	3.00	Shayne Graham	3.00
DEF	Dolphins	4.91	Dolphins	4.91

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tony Romo, 18.84 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mikel Leshoure scored 25.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2012

SuckMyVick

118.19

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

120.83

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.40 points left. Optimal 128.59 vs. actual 118.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	12.54	Ben Roethlisberger	12.54
WR	Nate Washington	10.50	Julio Jones	18.20
WR	Stevie Johnson	4.40	Nate Washington	10.50
WR	Julio Jones	18.20	Darrius Heyward-Bey	9.90
RB	LeSean McCoy	16.30	Vick Ballard	11.30
RB	Vick Ballard	11.30	LeSean McCoy	16.30
TE	Brent Celek	5.20	Brent Celek	5.20
W/R	Josh Gordon	4.80	DeAngelo Williams	9.70
K	Sebastian Janikowski	5.00	Sebastian Janikowski	5.00
DEF	Bears	29.95	Bears	29.95

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Bears, 29.95 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 26.02; zeroing that score creates a win.

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.80 points left. Optimal 122.63 vs. actual 120.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	26.02	Andrew Luck	27.82
WR	Kenny Britt	9.20	Andre Roberts	10.60
WR	Mike Wallace	14.10	Kenny Britt	9.20
WR	Andre Roberts	10.60	Mike Wallace	14.10
RB	Reggie Bush	13.60	Trent Richardson	18.60
RB	Trent Richardson	18.60	Reggie Bush	13.60
TE	Scott Chandler	6.60	Scott Chandler	6.60
W/R	C.J. Spiller	12.70	C.J. Spiller	12.70
K	Shaun Suisham	5.90	Shaun Suisham	5.90
DEF	Commanders	3.51	Commanders	3.51

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 26.02 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–3	5.818	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	1–8	3.000	-2.5	-0.227	1 / 2
Horgan	2–7	3.273	-3.5	-0.318	0 / 1
Multiple Gore-Gasms	5–4	4.455	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Fischer	5–4	4.636	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Demich	4–5	2.636	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
zyg	3–6	3.455	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 2
Kev	6–3	6.818	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Josh	5–4	5.091	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
The Big Tebowskis	6–3	5.545	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
SuckMyVick	4–5	4.818	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
Early Morning Doucet	7–2	4.455	+4.0	+0.364	2 / 0

2012 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

zyg lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

SuckMyVick lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9