2026 season ledger

Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.

SeasonThrough week: 7Data snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 5:51 PM UTC

Actual and all-play standings

All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.

Actual record, all-play expectation, and both traditional luck tallies through week 7.
Manager	W–L	PF	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky	Unlucky	All-play
Big Hut	6–1	869.14	4.462	+1.5	+0.115	1	0	63.7%
Josh	5–2	840.53	3.769	0.0	0.000	1	1	53.8%
Nevans	4–3	902.52	4.769	-1.5	-0.115	0	1	68.1%
Miller	4–3	877.16	3.923	+2.0	+0.154	1	1	56.0%
Fischer	4–3	797.31	3.154	+3.5	+0.269	2	1	45.1%
j-mart	4–3	796.03	3.538	+0.5	+0.038	1	0	50.5%
Niz	3–4	895.20	4.231	-5.0	-0.385	0	2	60.4%
Demich	3–4	856.79	3.923	+1.0	+0.077	1	1	56.0%
Joe Shore	3–4	844.41	3.615	-3.5	-0.269	1	2	51.6%
Adam	3–4	844.36	3.692	-2.5	-0.192	1	2	52.7%
Kev	3–4	838.50	3.846	-2.5	-0.192	0	1	54.9%
Krajcik	3–4	717.60	1.846	+7.0	+0.538	3	1	26.4%
Martin	2–5	756.60	2.462	+2.0	+0.154	1	1	35.2%
Horgan	2–5	714.39	1.769	+2.5	+0.192	1	0	25.3%

All-play order

Nevans — 4.769 expected wins; 62–29–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Big Hut — 4.462 expected wins; 58–33–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Niz — 4.231 expected wins; 55–36–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Miller — 3.923 expected wins; 51–40–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Demich — 3.923 expected wins; 51–40–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Kev — 3.846 expected wins; 50–41–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Josh — 3.769 expected wins; 49–42–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Adam — 3.692 expected wins; 48–43–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Joe Shore — 3.615 expected wins; 47–44–0 across weekly score comparisons.
j-mart — 3.538 expected wins; 46–45–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Fischer — 3.154 expected wins; 41–50–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Martin — 2.462 expected wins; 32–59–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Krajcik — 1.846 expected wins; 24–67–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Horgan — 1.769 expected wins; 23–68–0 across weekly score comparisons.

Latest weekly receipts

All exact ties share the award.

Week 7

Robbery of the Week

DemichRank 6, 119.16 points, lost by 40.74. Open matchup

Get Out of Jail Free

KrajcikRank 10, 100.90 points, won by 2.43. Open matchup

Cumulative luck in wins

Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.

Equivalent cumulative series by manager and week.
Manager	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	W6	W7
j-mart	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.04
Miller	0.00	+0.35	+0.35	+0.15	+0.15	+0.15	+0.15
Kev	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19
Demich	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.19	+0.19	+0.08
Krajcik	+0.12	+0.12	+0.08	+0.08	+0.08	+0.35	+0.54
Big Hut	0.00	0.00	+0.12	+0.12	+0.12	+0.12	+0.12
Adam	0.00	-0.19	-0.19	-0.23	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19
Nevans	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.12
Josh	0.00	0.00	+0.04	+0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00
Martin	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.27	+0.15	+0.15	+0.15
Fischer	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.19	+0.31	+0.31	+0.27
Joe Shore	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.15	-0.27	-0.27
Niz	-0.27	-0.27	-0.38	-0.38	-0.38	-0.38	-0.38
Horgan	+0.19	+0.19	+0.19	+0.19	+0.19	+0.19	+0.19

Schedule Swap

Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.

Open complete 14×14 matrix

Best and worst transposed schedules for each source team.
Source team	Best owner	Record	Worst owner	Record
j-mart	j-mart	4–3 (0.0)	Martin	3–4 (-1.0)
Miller	Horgan	5–2 (+1.0)	Fischer	3–4 (-1.0)
Kev	Horgan	6–1 (+3.0)	Demich	2–5 (-1.0)
Demich	j-mart	5–2 (+2.0)	Nevans	1–6 (-2.0)
Krajcik	j-mart	4–3 (+1.0)	Martin	0–7 (-3.0)
Big Hut	Miller	6–1 (0.0)	Niz	3–4 (-3.0)
Adam	Horgan	6–1 (+3.0)	Joe Shore	2–5 (-1.0)
Nevans	Big Hut	7–0 (+3.0)	Joe Shore	3–4 (-1.0)
Josh	Horgan	6–1 (+1.0)	Demich	1–6 (-4.0)
Martin	Horgan	5–2 (+3.0)	Nevans	0–7 (-2.0)
Fischer	Horgan	6–1 (+2.0)	Niz	2–5 (-2.0)
Joe Shore	Horgan	6–1 (+3.0)	Niz	1–6 (-2.0)
Niz	Horgan	6–1 (+3.0)	Kev	2–5 (-1.0)
Horgan	Big Hut	3–4 (+1.0)	Martin	1–6 (-1.0)

Everybody's Super Bowl

Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.

Average opponent excess by manager.
Manager	Mean excess	Meetings	Largest receipt
j-mart	-9.88 pts	7	Niz: +35.86 pts
Miller	-16.97 pts	7	Niz: +18.30 pts
Kev	+6.63 pts	7	Nevans: +44.35 pts
Demich	+13.60 pts	7	Kev: +46.80 pts
Krajcik	-6.33 pts	7	Martin: +31.06 pts
Big Hut	-16.80 pts	7	Josh: +5.39 pts
Adam	+14.72 pts	7	Horgan: +53.19 pts
Nevans	+12.44 pts	7	j-mart: +59.93 pts
Josh	-14.04 pts	7	Big Hut: +25.28 pts
Martin	+9.18 pts	7	Krajcik: +25.49 pts
Fischer	+2.29 pts	7	Adam: +40.94 pts
Joe Shore	+9.61 pts	7	Fischer: +35.20 pts
Niz	+12.47 pts	7	Demich: +33.33 pts
Horgan	-16.91 pts	7	Fischer: +0.94 pts

Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row

Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.

Average opponent weekly percentile and points against.
Manager	Difficulty	Games	PA/game
j-mart	42.9%	7	113.16
Miller	39.3%	7	108.07
Kev	54.8%	7	124.05
Demich	72.6%	7	134.57
Krajcik	34.5%	7	109.60
Big Hut	31.0%	7	103.21
Adam	58.3%	7	127.21
Nevans	70.2%	7	130.27
Josh	35.7%	7	105.12
Martin	58.3%	7	123.98
Fischer	47.6%	7	115.99
Joe Shore	60.7%	7	123.01
Niz	71.4%	7	132.24
Horgan	22.6%	7	99.60

Heart Attack Club

A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.

Close-game records and rates. Counts show the sample size.
Manager	Close record	Games	Win-credit rate	Closest win	Closest loss
j-mart	0–0	0	Not enough history	None	None
Miller	0–1	1	0.0%	None	3.33
Kev	0–0	0	Not enough history	None	None
Demich	0–0	0	Not enough history	None	None
Krajcik	1–0	1	100.0%	2.43	None
Big Hut	0–0	0	Not enough history	None	None
Adam	0–0	0	Not enough history	None	None
Nevans	1–0	1	100.0%	1.21	None
Josh	0–0	0	Not enough history	None	None
Martin	0–0	0	Not enough history	None	None
Fischer	0–0	0	Not enough history	None	None
Joe Shore	0–1	1	0.0%	None	2.43
Niz	1–1	2	50.0%	3.33	1.21
Horgan	0–0	0	Not enough history	None	None

Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent

Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.

Chart data. Gap equals actual win rate minus all-play win rate.
Manager	Actual	All-play	Gap	View
j-mart	57.1%	50.5%	+6.6 pp	Paper Tiger
Miller	57.1%	56.0%	+1.1 pp	Paper Tiger
Kev	42.9%	54.9%	-12.1 pp	Wasted Talent
Demich	42.9%	56.0%	-13.2 pp	Wasted Talent
Krajcik	42.9%	26.4%	+16.5 pp	Paper Tiger
Big Hut	85.7%	63.7%	+22.0 pp	Paper Tiger
Adam	42.9%	52.7%	-9.9 pp	Wasted Talent
Nevans	57.1%	68.1%	-11.0 pp	Wasted Talent
Josh	71.4%	53.8%	+17.6 pp	Paper Tiger
Martin	28.6%	35.2%	-6.6 pp	Wasted Talent
Fischer	57.1%	45.1%	+12.1 pp	Paper Tiger
Joe Shore	42.9%	51.6%	-8.8 pp	Wasted Talent
Niz	42.9%	60.4%	-17.6 pp	Wasted Talent
Horgan	28.6%	25.3%	+3.3 pp	Paper Tiger

The Roller Coaster

Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.

Weekly normalized score volatility.
Manager	Volatility	Mean percentile	Weeks
j-mart	41.3 pp	50.5%	7
Miller	36.2 pp	56.0%	7
Kev	27.1 pp	54.9%	7
Demich	22.8 pp	56.0%	7
Krajcik	18.8 pp	26.4%	7
Big Hut	31.5 pp	63.7%	7
Adam	28.3 pp	52.7%	7
Nevans	27.4 pp	68.1%	7
Josh	22.9 pp	53.8%	7
Martin	22.1 pp	35.2%	7
Fischer	28.0 pp	45.1%	7
Joe Shore	25.3 pp	51.6%	7
Niz	29.8 pp	60.4%	7
Horgan	28.4 pp	25.3%	7

Nemesis / Has Their Number

Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.

Largest qualifying net-loss and net-win rivalry for each manager.
Manager	Nemesis	Record	Has Their Number	Record
j-mart	Niz	0–1	Joe Shore	1–0
Miller	Demich	0–1	Nevans	1–0
Kev	Krajcik	0–1	Demich	1–0
Demich	Kev	0–1	Adam	1–0
Krajcik	Fischer	0–1	Kev	1–0
Big Hut	Miller	0–1	Martin	1–0
Adam	Horgan	0–1	Fischer	1–0
Nevans	Miller	0–1	Demich	1–0
Josh	Joe Shore	0–1	Fischer	1–0
Martin	Big Hut	0–1	Krajcik	1–0
Fischer	Adam	0–1	Krajcik	1–0
Joe Shore	j-mart	0–1	Kev	1–0
Niz	Kev	0–1	j-mart	1–0
Horgan	Josh	0–1	Adam	1–0

Archived player statistics

Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.

Tinker Failures:98/98 (100.0%)Carried by One Guy:98/98 (100.0%)Opponent's Final Boss:49/49 (100.0%)

Tinker Failures

Best full archived lineup versus actual starters.
Manager	Points left	Avoidable losses	Receipts
j-mart	81.06	0	7 weeks W1: 24.50 left W2: 15.10 left W3: 19.46 left W4: 6.70 left W5: 12.00 left W6: 3.30 left W7: 0.00 left
Miller	99.52	3	7 weeks W1: 10.70 left W2: 31.24 left W3: 5.40 left W4: 7.70 left W5: 15.16 left W6: 5.66 left W7: 23.66 left
Kev	91.90	0	7 weeks W1: 16.50 left W2: 26.50 left W3: 26.50 left W4: 8.80 left W5: 13.60 left W6: 0.00 left W7: 0.00 left
Demich	48.90	0	7 weeks W1: 2.20 left W2: 9.30 left W3: 7.04 left W4: 19.00 left W5: 7.00 left W6: 1.00 left W7: 3.36 left
Krajcik	128.04	2	7 weeks W1: 23.18 left W2: 39.96 left W3: 14.90 left W4: 39.30 left W5: 3.28 left W6: 7.42 left W7: 0.00 left
Big Hut	34.40	0	7 weeks W1: 1.40 left W2: 5.70 left W3: 0.00 left W4: 11.80 left W5: 7.20 left W6: 0.00 left W7: 8.30 left
Adam	81.40	1	7 weeks W1: 14.60 left W2: 11.00 left W3: 10.20 left W4: 13.60 left W5: 7.40 left W6: 13.50 left W7: 11.10 left
Nevans	93.12	1	7 weeks W1: 10.20 left W2: 8.82 left W3: 5.50 left W4: 27.40 left W5: 9.10 left W6: 24.50 left W7: 7.60 left
Josh	68.12	0	7 weeks W1: 31.86 left W2: 12.14 left W3: 3.30 left W4: 1.30 left W5: 1.80 left W6: 1.70 left W7: 16.02 left
Martin	84.78	0	7 weeks W1: 7.80 left W2: 11.40 left W3: 24.40 left W4: 2.70 left W5: 2.18 left W6: 26.20 left W7: 10.10 left
Fischer	80.60	0	7 weeks W1: 28.92 left W2: 4.32 left W3: 15.06 left W4: 6.10 left W5: 0.00 left W6: 11.70 left W7: 14.50 left
Joe Shore	92.42	1	7 weeks W1: 32.10 left W2: 22.18 left W3: 8.06 left W4: 7.54 left W5: 0.00 left W6: 22.10 left W7: 0.44 left
Niz	116.90	1	7 weeks W1: 13.88 left W2: 48.78 left W3: 9.58 left W4: 31.90 left W5: 1.40 left W6: 8.68 left W7: 2.68 left
Horgan	33.90	0	7 weeks W1: 14.70 left W2: 17.50 left W3: 0.00 left W4: 0.00 left W5: 1.70 left W6: 0.00 left W7: 0.00 left

Carried by One Guy

Season share of positive points from actual starts.
Manager	Leading player	Share	Positive starter points	Receipts
j-mart	Jared Goff	15.0%	796.03	7 weeks W1: Jared Goff 25.0% W2: Jared Goff 22.6% W3: James Cook III 27.8% W4: Tetairoa McMillan 28.6% W5: Jared Goff 26.0% W6: James Cook III 18.8% W7: Jared Goff 18.8%
Miller	Christian McCaffrey	16.4%	880.25	7 weeks W1: David Montgomery 19.8% W2: Christian McCaffrey 24.3% W3: George Kittle 17.1% W4: Nico Collins 23.4% W5: Trevor Lawrence 23.4% W6: Christian McCaffrey 21.3% W7: Tee Higgins 28.1%
Kev	Dak Prescott	15.8%	838.50	7 weeks W1: Rhamondre Stevenson 16.6% W2: Dak Prescott 26.6% W3: Brock Bowers 28.3% W4: Malik Nabers 21.1% W5: Malik Nabers 22.9% W6: Malik Nabers 25.4% W7: Tre Tucker 14.6%
Demich	Jahmyr Gibbs	20.7%	856.79	7 weeks W1: Jahmyr Gibbs 28.5% W2: Jahmyr Gibbs 21.7% W3: Jahmyr Gibbs 27.4% W4: Chuba Hubbard 18.4% W5: Jahmyr Gibbs 34.8% W6: Chuba Hubbard 23.7% W7: Joe Burrow 24.2%
Krajcik	Christian Watson	18.6%	717.60	7 weeks W1: Christian Watson 27.9% W2: Travis Kelce 26.6% W3: Brock Purdy 25.2% W4: Brock Purdy 25.3% W5: Christian Watson 34.4% W6: Brock Purdy 19.5% W7: Makai Lemon 19.5%
Big Hut	Javonte Williams	15.2%	869.14	7 weeks W1: Caleb Williams 24.1% W2: Breece Hall 20.9% W3: Bo Nix 22.4% W4: Javonte Williams 21.7% W5: Puka Nacua 27.2% W6: Isaiah Likely 20.0% W7: Luther Burden III 20.0%
Adam	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	24.6%	844.71	7 weeks W1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 21.4% W2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 34.4% W3: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 24.0% W4: Kyle Monangai 23.9% W5: Garrett Wilson 22.0% W6: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 28.6% W7: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 36.7%
Nevans	Josh Allen	18.3%	903.50	7 weeks W1: Josh Allen 26.4% W2: Josh Allen 29.2% W3: CeeDee Lamb 23.0% W4: CeeDee Lamb 33.1% W5: Bucky Irving 20.1% W6: Josh Allen 19.1% W7: Bucky Irving 19.9%
Josh	Amon-Ra St. Brown	15.8%	840.53	7 weeks W1: Ashton Jeanty 26.6% W2: Amon-Ra St. Brown 28.6% W3: Jordan Love 17.1% W4: Ashton Jeanty 19.0% W5: Jayden Daniels 27.5% W6: Jayden Daniels 21.9% W7: Trey McBride 22.0%
Martin	Drake London	14.8%	756.60	7 weeks W1: Lamar Jackson 25.0% W2: Stefon Diggs 21.6% W3: Drake London 22.6% W4: Lamar Jackson 17.8% W5: George Pickens 23.6% W6: Xavier Worthy 19.0% W7: Cam Skattebo 20.0%
Fischer	Kenneth Walker III	19.5%	797.69	7 weeks W1: Kenneth Walker III 41.8% W2: Panthers 21.2% W3: Matthew Golden 22.0% W4: Kenneth Walker III 27.9% W5: Drake Maye 36.1% W6: Kenneth Walker III 20.8% W7: Drake Maye 27.3%
Joe Shore	Bijan Robinson	17.7%	844.41	7 weeks W1: Bijan Robinson 23.7% W2: Parker Washington 18.0% W3: Bijan Robinson 26.6% W4: Kyren Williams 29.5% W5: Parker Washington 23.4% W6: Germie Bernard 22.4% W7: Jameson Williams 26.5%
Niz	Jonathan Taylor	15.4%	895.68	7 weeks W1: Zay Flowers 19.9% W2: Davante Adams 30.6% W3: Matthew Stafford 17.5% W4: Zay Flowers 19.4% W5: Jaylen Warren 24.5% W6: Jonathan Taylor 24.3% W7: Zay Flowers 29.9%
Horgan	Tony Pollard	12.6%	714.49	7 weeks W1: Justin Jefferson 28.0% W2: DeVonta Smith 34.4% W3: Tony Pollard 16.5% W4: Emanuel Wilson 27.2% W5: Justin Jefferson 18.1% W6: DeVonta Smith 24.6% W7: Tony Pollard 26.1%

Opponent's Final Boss

Zero-score counterfactual damage in official losses.
Manager	Leading opponent	Damage	Leader encounters	Receipts
j-mart	No single-player result flip	0.00	0	3 weeks W1: No single-player flip W3: No single-player flip W5: No single-player flip
Miller	Jahmyr Gibbs	198.37	1	3 weeks W4: Zay Flowers +24.47 W5: Jahmyr Gibbs +27.43 W7: Jared Goff +12.99
Kev	Javonte Williams	16.35	1	4 weeks W1: No single-player flip W3: Bijan Robinson +1.39 W4: Javonte Williams +6.43 W5: Bucky Irving +2.35
Demich	Josh Allen	20.45	1	4 weeks W1: Caleb Williams +7.49 W2: Josh Allen +8.24 W6: No single-player flip W7: No single-player flip
Krajcik	Drake London	89.19	1	4 weeks W2: Amon-Ra St. Brown +8.89 W3: Drake London +20.05 W4: No single-player flip W5: Garrett Wilson +9.59
Big Hut	No single-player result flip	0.00	0	1 week W2: No single-player flip
Adam	Davante Adams	91.96	1	4 weeks W2: Davante Adams +35.36 W4: Chuba Hubbard +2.07 W6: No single-player flip W7: No single-player flip
Nevans	Jayden Daniels	47.31	1	3 weeks W3: No single-player flip W4: Tetairoa McMillan +13.12 W6: Jayden Daniels +13.90
Josh	Puka Nacua	50.53	1	2 weeks W4: Kyren Williams +10.26 W5: Puka Nacua +18.57
Martin	Parker Washington	57.62	1	5 weeks W1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +4.18 W2: Panthers +3.51 W5: Parker Washington +20.56 W6: No single-player flip W7: Bucky Irving +0.47
Fischer	Luther Burden III	10.80	1	3 weeks W1: No single-player flip W3: No single-player flip W7: Luther Burden III +4.62
Joe Shore	Makai Lemon	126.05	1	4 weeks W1: David Montgomery +15.45 W2: No single-player flip W6: Kenneth Walker III +0.57 W7: Makai Lemon +17.27
Niz	Josh Allen	159.08	1	4 weeks W1: Josh Allen +36.45 W3: Jahmyr Gibbs +21.03 W6: No single-player flip W7: No single-player flip
Horgan	Drake Maye	144.10	1	5 weeks W2: Dak Prescott +4.27 W3: No single-player flip W4: Lamar Jackson +12.25 W5: Drake Maye +30.88 W6: Brock Purdy +11.86

Postseason scorecards

Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.

No completed postseason periods in this snapshot.