2026 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2026

j-mart

111.17

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Niz

158.62

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.00 points left. Optimal 123.17 vs. actual 111.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	28.94	Jared Goff	28.94
RB	James Cook III	24.80	James Cook III	24.80
RB	Omarion Hampton	4.90	Keaton Mitchell	7.12
WR	Jaylen Waddle	4.80	Kendrick Bourne	12.00
WR	Rome Odunze	5.00	DK Metcalf	5.30
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	15.20	Kyle Pitts Sr.	15.20
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	5.30	Ray Davis	7.58
W/R/T	Ollie Gordon II	14.80	Ollie Gordon II	14.80
DEF	Commanders	7.43	Commanders	7.43

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 28.94 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.40 points left. Optimal 160.02 vs. actual 158.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	29.32	Matthew Stafford	29.32
RB	Jonathan Taylor	11.20	Jonathan Taylor	11.20
RB	Jaylen Warren	38.80	Jaylen Warren	38.80
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	3.50	Davante Adams	22.10
WR	Zay Flowers	14.60	Zay Flowers	14.60
TE	Sam LaPorta	19.80	Sam LaPorta	19.80
W/R/T	Davante Adams	22.10	Wan'Dale Robinson	11.30
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	11.30	Jake Ferguson	4.90
DEF	Patriots	8.00	Patriots	8.00

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Warren, 38.80 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2026

Miller

101.67

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Demich

113.94

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.16 points left. Optimal 116.83 vs. actual 101.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	23.74	Trevor Lawrence	23.74
RB	Christian McCaffrey	17.30	Christian McCaffrey	17.30
RB	Bhayshul Tuten	11.60	Bhayshul Tuten	11.60
WR	Nico Collins	10.60	Nico Collins	10.60
WR	Malik Washington	13.56	Malik Washington	13.56
TE	George Kittle	7.40	Dallas Goedert	9.80
W/R/T	Dallas Goedert	9.80	Kendre Miller	9.00
W/R/T	Kenyon Sadiq	0.30	Denzel Boston	13.86
DEF	Giants	7.37	Giants	7.37

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Trevor Lawrence, 23.74 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jahmyr Gibbs scored 39.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.00 points left. Optimal 120.94 vs. actual 113.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	24.60	Joe Burrow	24.60
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	39.70	Jahmyr Gibbs	39.70
RB	Quinshon Judkins	8.00	Quinshon Judkins	8.00
WR	Chris Olave	8.60	Chris Olave	8.60
WR	Romeo Doubs	2.60	Kayshon Boutte	6.80
TE	Brenton Strange	13.80	Brenton Strange	13.80
W/R/T	Woody Marks	12.50	AJ Barner	5.00
W/R/T	Jeremiyah Love	2.20	Woody Marks	12.50
DEF	Rams	1.94	Rams	1.94

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 39.70 points (34.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2026

Kev

135.80

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Nevans

166.95

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.60 points left. Optimal 149.40 vs. actual 135.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	14.64	Dak Prescott	14.64
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	17.50	Rhamondre Stevenson	17.50
RB	Will Shipley	8.30	Will Shipley	8.30
WR	Jakobi Meyers	5.70	Tre Tucker	7.50
WR	Malik Nabers	31.10	Malik Nabers	31.10
TE	Brock Bowers	25.00	Brock Bowers	25.00
W/R/T	Ja'Marr Chase	19.70	J.K. Dobbins	15.40
W/R/T	Tre' Harris	3.60	Ja'Marr Chase	19.70
DEF	Seahawks	10.26	Seahawks	10.26

Carried by One Guy: Malik Nabers, 31.10 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bucky Irving scored 33.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.10 points left. Optimal 176.05 vs. actual 166.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	32.50	Josh Allen	32.50
RB	Derrick Henry	23.00	Derrick Henry	23.00
RB	Bucky Irving	33.50	Bucky Irving	33.50
WR	CeeDee Lamb	2.90	Khalil Shakir	11.00
WR	Khalil Shakir	11.00	Ryan Flournoy	12.00
TE	Tucker Kraft	11.60	Tucker Kraft	11.60
W/R/T	Blake Corum	16.20	Blake Corum	16.20
W/R/T	Braelon Allen	20.60	Braelon Allen	20.60
DEF	Texans	15.65	Texans	15.65

Carried by One Guy: Bucky Irving, 33.50 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2026

Krajcik

99.68

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Adam

115.49

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.28 points left. Optimal 102.96 vs. actual 99.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	16.16	Brock Purdy	16.16
RB	Tyler Allgeier	3.60	Tyler Allgeier	3.60
RB	Chase Brown	7.00	Chase Brown	7.00
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	7.00	Chris Godwin Jr.	7.00
WR	Christian Watson	34.30	Christian Watson	34.30
TE	Dalton Kincaid	3.70	Dalton Kincaid	3.70
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	9.50	Keenan Allen	9.50
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	6.02	Makai Lemon	9.30
DEF	Vikings	12.40	Vikings	12.40

Carried by One Guy: Christian Watson, 34.30 points (34.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Garrett Wilson scored 25.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.40 points left. Optimal 122.89 vs. actual 115.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyler Shough	-0.16	Tyler Shough	-0.16
RB	MarShawn Lloyd	16.70	MarShawn Lloyd	16.70
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	14.20	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	14.20
WR	Garrett Wilson	25.40	Garrett Wilson	25.40
WR	Carnell Tate	1.60	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	24.80
TE	Tyler Warren	21.40	Tyler Warren	21.40
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	24.80	Michael Wilson	7.28
W/R/T	Michael Wilson	7.28	Roschon Johnson	9.00
DEF	Jaguars	4.27	Jaguars	4.27

Carried by One Guy: Garrett Wilson, 25.40 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2026

Big Hut

145.83

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Josh

124.70

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.20 points left. Optimal 153.03 vs. actual 145.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	7.92	Bo Nix	7.92
RB	Alvin Kamara	2.60	Javonte Williams	14.20
RB	Javonte Williams	14.20	Tyjae Spears	9.80
WR	Mike Evans	28.30	Mike Evans	28.30
WR	Courtland Sutton	9.80	Courtland Sutton	9.80
TE	Isaiah Likely	32.40	Isaiah Likely	32.40
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	39.70	Puka Nacua	39.70
W/R/T	Luther Burden III	8.90	Luther Burden III	8.90
DEF	Bears	2.01	Bears	2.01

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 39.70 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.80 points left. Optimal 126.50 vs. actual 124.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	34.26	Jayden Daniels	34.26
RB	Kenny Gainwell	5.80	Kenny Gainwell	5.80
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	4.80	Ashton Jeanty	10.70
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.62	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.62
WR	Josh Downs	7.70	Josh Downs	7.70
TE	Trey McBride	21.60	Trey McBride	21.60
W/R/T	Terry McLaurin	12.20	Terry McLaurin	12.20
W/R/T	Ashton Jeanty	10.70	Devaughn Vele	6.60
DEF	Broncos	14.02	Broncos	14.02

Carried by One Guy: Jayden Daniels, 34.26 points (27.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Puka Nacua scored 39.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2026

Martin

127.06

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Joe Shore

139.12

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.18 points left. Optimal 129.24 vs. actual 127.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	25.28	Jacoby Brissett	25.28
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	20.70	Aaron Jones Sr.	20.70
RB	Cam Skattebo	7.10	Cam Skattebo	7.10
WR	Drake London	20.80	Drake London	20.80
WR	George Pickens	30.00	George Pickens	30.00
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	1.40	Hunter Henry	13.40
W/R/T	Hunter Henry	13.40	Kalif Raymond	3.58
W/R/T	Dohnte Meyers	6.28	Dohnte Meyers	6.28
DEF	Steelers	2.10	Steelers	2.10

Carried by One Guy: George Pickens, 30.00 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Parker Washington scored 32.62; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 139.12 vs. actual 139.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	13.00	Jalen Hurts	13.00
RB	Kyren Williams	19.60	Kyren Williams	19.60
RB	Bijan Robinson	15.80	Bijan Robinson	15.80
WR	Parker Washington	32.62	Parker Washington	32.62
WR	Jaylin Noel	16.06	Jaylin Noel	16.06
TE	Juwan Johnson	5.60	Juwan Johnson	5.60
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	18.70	Jameson Williams	18.70
W/R/T	Keon Coleman	7.70	Keon Coleman	7.70
DEF	Bengals	10.04	Bengals	10.04

Carried by One Guy: Parker Washington, 32.62 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2026

Fischer

114.71

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Horgan

104.13

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 114.71 vs. actual 114.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	41.46	Drake Maye	41.46
RB	D'Andre Swift	17.30	D'Andre Swift	17.30
RB	Mike Washington Jr.	2.00	Mike Washington Jr.	2.00
WR	Dontayvion Wicks	11.30	Dontayvion Wicks	11.30
WR	Matthew Golden	22.84	Matthew Golden	22.84
TE	Colston Loveland	3.90	Colston Loveland	3.90
W/R/T	Mike Gesicki	7.40	Mike Gesicki	7.40
W/R/T	Antonio Williams	6.14	Antonio Williams	6.14
DEF	Cowboys	2.37	Cowboys	2.37

Carried by One Guy: Drake Maye, 41.46 points (36.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.70 points left. Optimal 105.83 vs. actual 104.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	18.26	Kyler Murray	18.26
RB	Emanuel Wilson	13.20	Najee Harris	2.40
RB	RJ Harvey	0.70	Emanuel Wilson	13.20
WR	Justin Jefferson	18.80	Justin Jefferson	18.80
WR	Emeka Egbuka	17.20	Emeka Egbuka	17.20
TE	Mark Andrews	4.80	Mark Andrews	4.80
W/R/T	Tony Pollard	5.20	Tony Pollard	5.20
W/R/T	Darius Cooper	15.10	Darius Cooper	15.10
DEF	Browns	10.87	Browns	10.87

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 18.80 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drake Maye scored 41.46; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–3	2.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	3–2	2.769	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Kev	1–4	2.077	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Demich	3–2	3.000	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Krajcik	1–4	1.308	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	4–1	3.077	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	3–2	3.308	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Nevans	3–2	3.538	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Josh	3–2	2.385	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Martin	2–3	2.077	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Fischer	3–2	1.615	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Joe Shore	3–2	2.923	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Niz	3–2	3.923	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Horgan	1–4	0.769	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0

2026 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5