2026 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 9 – 14, 2026

j-mart

65.85

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

111.25

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.50 points left. Optimal 90.35 vs. actual 65.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	16.44	Jared Goff	16.44
RB	James Cook III	9.90	James Cook III	9.90
RB	Omarion Hampton	8.30	Omarion Hampton	8.30
WR	Jaylen Waddle	1.20	Jalen Nailor	5.70
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	10.50	Tetairoa McMillan	10.50
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	0.00	Kyle Pitts Sr.	0.00
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	8.00	DK Metcalf	8.00
W/R/T	MarShawn Lloyd	3.70	Chuba Hubbard	23.70
DEF	Ravens	7.81	Ravens	7.81

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 16.44 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.70 points left. Optimal 125.95 vs. actual 111.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	13.26	Justin Herbert	13.26
RB	Tony Pollard	4.40	Tony Pollard	4.40
RB	RJ Harvey	11.32	RJ Harvey	11.32
WR	Justin Jefferson	31.20	DJ Moore	23.00
WR	DeVonta Smith	8.30	Justin Jefferson	31.20
TE	Mark Andrews	8.90	Mark Andrews	8.90
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	8.80	Michael Pittman Jr.	8.80
W/R/T	Emeka Egbuka	11.30	Emeka Egbuka	11.30
DEF	Jaguars	13.77	Jaguars	13.77

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 31.20 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 9 – 14, 2026

Kev

87.39

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

124.44

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.50 points left. Optimal 103.89 vs. actual 87.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	14.40	Dak Prescott	14.40
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	14.50	Rhamondre Stevenson	14.50
RB	Jadarian Price	7.80	Jadarian Price	7.80
WR	Jakobi Meyers	12.20	Jakobi Meyers	12.20
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	3.20	Antonio Williams	16.40
TE	Greg Dulcich	3.80	Greg Dulcich	3.80
W/R/T	Tre Tucker	4.70	Malik Nabers	12.90
W/R/T	Malik Nabers	12.90	Kaelon Black	8.00
DEF	Seahawks	13.89	Seahawks	13.89

Carried by One Guy: Rhamondre Stevenson, 14.50 points (16.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.18 points left. Optimal 147.62 vs. actual 124.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	9.82	Brock Purdy	21.10
RB	Saquon Barkley	9.00	Saquon Barkley	9.00
RB	Chase Brown	18.80	Chase Brown	18.80
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	8.30	Keenan Allen	9.20
WR	Christian Watson	34.70	Christian Watson	34.70
TE	Travis Kelce	10.10	Travis Kelce	10.10
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	14.80	Travis Etienne Jr.	14.80
W/R/T	Tyler Allgeier	9.00	Dalton Kincaid	20.00
DEF	Vikings	9.92	Vikings	9.92

Carried by One Guy: Christian Watson, 34.70 points (27.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 9 – 14, 2026

Demich

125.12

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

154.89

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.20 points left. Optimal 127.32 vs. actual 125.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	14.16	Joe Burrow	14.16
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	35.60	Jahmyr Gibbs	35.60
RB	Quinshon Judkins	7.00	Quinshon Judkins	7.00
WR	Chris Olave	30.20	Chris Olave	30.20
WR	Jayden Reed	5.00	Rome Odunze	7.20
TE	Brenton Strange	10.30	Brenton Strange	10.30
W/R/T	Woody Marks	6.56	Woody Marks	6.56
W/R/T	Jeremiyah Love	13.00	Jeremiyah Love	13.00
DEF	Rams	3.30	Rams	3.30

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 35.60 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Caleb Williams scored 37.26; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.40 points left. Optimal 156.29 vs. actual 154.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	37.26	Caleb Williams	37.26
RB	Javonte Williams	24.20	Javonte Williams	24.20
RB	Breece Hall	21.80	Breece Hall	21.80
WR	Courtland Sutton	3.10	Puka Nacua	12.40
WR	Puka Nacua	12.40	Malachi Fields	4.50
TE	Isaiah Likely	27.80	Isaiah Likely	27.80
W/R/T	Mike Evans	16.90	Mike Evans	16.90
W/R/T	Luther Burden III	9.50	Luther Burden III	9.50
DEF	Packers	1.93	Packers	1.93

Carried by One Guy: Caleb Williams, 37.26 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 9 – 14, 2026

Adam

132.05

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin

108.03

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.60 points left. Optimal 146.65 vs. actual 132.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyler Shough	25.20	Tyler Shough	25.20
RB	De'Von Achane	10.60	De'Von Achane	10.60
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	12.60	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	12.60
WR	Garrett Wilson	13.90	Garrett Wilson	13.90
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	28.20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	28.20
TE	Tyler Warren	10.30	Tyler Warren	10.30
W/R/T	Michael Wilson	10.60	Michael Wilson	10.60
W/R/T	Carnell Tate	7.80	Kyle Monangai	22.40
DEF	Chiefs	12.85	Chiefs	12.85

Carried by One Guy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 28.20 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.80 points left. Optimal 115.83 vs. actual 108.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	26.96	Lamar Jackson	26.96
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	10.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	10.00
RB	Cam Skattebo	14.10	Cam Skattebo	14.10
WR	Drake London	5.50	George Pickens	5.80
WR	George Pickens	5.80	Pat Bryant	8.20
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	4.10	Michael Mayer	9.20
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	15.50	Stefon Diggs	15.50
W/R/T	Jonathon Brooks	7.20	Jonathon Brooks	7.20
DEF	Steelers	18.87	Steelers	18.87

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 26.96 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored 28.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 9 – 14, 2026

Josh

130.64

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

85.92

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.86 points left. Optimal 162.50 vs. actual 130.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	17.66	Jayden Daniels	17.66
RB	Kenny Gainwell	3.24	Ashton Jeanty	34.70
RB	Ashton Jeanty	34.70	Emmett Johnson	8.80
WR	Terry McLaurin	3.40	Amon-Ra St. Brown	28.70
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	28.70	Devaughn Vele	19.90
TE	Trey McBride	24.50	Trey McBride	24.50
W/R/T	Josh Downs	5.70	Adonai Mitchell	9.00
W/R/T	Adonai Mitchell	9.00	Matthew Golden	15.50
DEF	Broncos	3.74	Broncos	3.74

Carried by One Guy: Ashton Jeanty, 34.70 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.92 points left. Optimal 114.84 vs. actual 85.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	-0.38	Bo Nix	5.44
RB	D'Andre Swift	34.40	D'Andre Swift	34.40
RB	Kenneth Walker III	36.10	Kenneth Walker III	36.10
WR	A.J. Brown	5.60	A.J. Brown	5.60
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	4.30	Marvin Harrison Jr.	4.30
TE	Colston Loveland	0.00	Colston Loveland	0.00
W/R/T	Rico Dowdle	4.10	Jordan Mason	11.90
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	0.00	Dontayvion Wicks	15.30
DEF	Chargers	1.80	Chargers	1.80

Carried by One Guy: Kenneth Walker III, 36.10 points (41.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 9 – 14, 2026

Miller

145.79

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

132.34

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.70 points left. Optimal 156.49 vs. actual 145.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	26.10	Trevor Lawrence	26.10
RB	Christian McCaffrey	13.80	Christian McCaffrey	13.80
RB	David Montgomery	28.90	David Montgomery	28.90
WR	Tee Higgins	8.90	Tee Higgins	8.90
WR	Nico Collins	21.20	Nico Collins	21.20
TE	George Kittle	3.20	Dallas Goedert	23.70
W/R/T	Dallas Goedert	23.70	Bhayshul Tuten	9.80
W/R/T	Bhayshul Tuten	9.80	Denzel Boston	13.90
DEF	Lions	10.19	Lions	10.19

Carried by One Guy: David Montgomery, 28.90 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.10 points left. Optimal 164.44 vs. actual 132.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	24.72	Jalen Hurts	24.72
RB	Kyren Williams	15.50	Kyren Williams	15.50
RB	Bijan Robinson	31.30	Bijan Robinson	31.30
WR	Jameson Williams	8.50	Jameson Williams	8.50
WR	Rashee Rice	9.90	Rashee Rice	9.90
TE	Juwan Johnson	14.40	Juwan Johnson	14.40
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	3.70	Parker Washington	19.20
W/R/T	Parker Washington	19.20	Jalen Coker	35.80
DEF	Eagles	5.12	Eagles	5.12

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 31.30 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: David Montgomery scored 28.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 9 – 14, 2026

Nevans

141.68

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Niz

140.47

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 151.88 vs. actual 141.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	37.66	Josh Allen	37.66
RB	Derrick Henry	37.30	Derrick Henry	37.30
RB	Bucky Irving	20.30	Bucky Irving	20.30
WR	CeeDee Lamb	15.40	CeeDee Lamb	15.40
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	7.00	Khalil Shakir	9.00
TE	Tucker Kraft	9.50	Tucker Kraft	9.50
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	10.10	T.J. Hockenson	13.60
W/R/T	Blake Corum	5.40	Alec Pierce	10.10
DEF	Texans	-0.98	Texans	-0.98

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 37.66 points (26.4% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.88 points left. Optimal 154.35 vs. actual 140.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jaxson Dart	26.60	Jaxson Dart	26.60
RB	Jonathan Taylor	25.10	Jonathan Taylor	25.10
RB	Jaylen Warren	10.30	Jaylen Warren	10.30
WR	Zay Flowers	28.00	Zay Flowers	28.00
WR	Ladd McConkey	19.20	Ladd McConkey	19.20
TE	Sam LaPorta	9.80	Sam LaPorta	9.80
W/R/T	Davante Adams	5.60	Deebo Samuel Sr.	19.48
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	8.80	Wan'Dale Robinson	8.80
DEF	Patriots	7.07	Patriots	7.07

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Zay Flowers, 28.00 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 37.66; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–0	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	0–1	0.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	0–1	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–0	0.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Big Hut	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–0	0.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	1–0	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–0	0.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	0–1	0.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–1	0.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	0–1	0.692	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Niz	0–1	0.769	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Horgan	1–0	0.308	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0

2026 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1