2026 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2026

j-mart

77.06

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

107.83

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.46 points left. Optimal 96.52 vs. actual 77.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	12.74	Jared Goff	19.36
RB	James Cook III	21.40	James Cook III	21.40
RB	Omarion Hampton	5.60	Keaton Mitchell	14.74
WR	Jaylen Waddle	6.40	Jaylen Waddle	6.40
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	3.70	Rome Odunze	7.40
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	1.50	Kyle Pitts Sr.	1.50
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	12.10	DK Metcalf	12.10
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	5.70	Rashod Bateman	5.70
DEF	Titans	7.92	Titans	7.92

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 21.40 points (27.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 107.83 vs. actual 107.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	24.14	Bo Nix	24.14
RB	Javonte Williams	18.30	Javonte Williams	18.30
RB	Breece Hall	8.50	Breece Hall	8.50
WR	Mike Evans	12.40	Mike Evans	12.40
WR	Courtland Sutton	7.60	Courtland Sutton	7.60
TE	Isaiah Likely	3.30	Isaiah Likely	3.30
W/R/T	Alvin Kamara	5.10	Alvin Kamara	5.10
W/R/T	Luther Burden III	19.80	Luther Burden III	19.80
DEF	Giants	8.69	Giants	8.69

Carried by One Guy: Bo Nix, 24.14 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2026

Miller

152.98

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

96.32

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.40 points left. Optimal 158.38 vs. actual 152.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	19.78	Trevor Lawrence	19.78
RB	David Montgomery	6.80	Christian McCaffrey	21.60
RB	Bhayshul Tuten	17.00	Bhayshul Tuten	17.00
WR	Tee Higgins	21.00	Tee Higgins	21.00
WR	Denzel Boston	8.10	Denzel Boston	8.10
TE	George Kittle	26.20	George Kittle	26.20
W/R/T	Christian McCaffrey	21.60	Malik Washington	12.20
W/R/T	Kenyon Sadiq	25.50	Kenyon Sadiq	25.50
DEF	Bills	7.00	Bills	7.00

Carried by One Guy: George Kittle, 26.20 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.50 points left. Optimal 101.82 vs. actual 96.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	17.46	Josh Allen	17.46
RB	Derrick Henry	21.90	Derrick Henry	21.90
RB	Bucky Irving	7.80	Bucky Irving	7.80
WR	CeeDee Lamb	22.20	CeeDee Lamb	22.20
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	1.80	Ryan Flournoy	4.20
TE	Tucker Kraft	6.60	Tucker Kraft	6.60
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	1.60	Blake Corum	3.50
W/R/T	Blake Corum	3.50	Braelon Allen	4.70
DEF	Texans	13.46	Texans	13.46

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 22.20 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2026

Krajcik

124.36

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Martin

134.71

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.90 points left. Optimal 139.26 vs. actual 124.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	31.28	Brock Purdy	31.28
RB	Saquon Barkley	9.00	Saquon Barkley	9.00
RB	Chase Brown	8.90	Chase Brown	8.90
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	5.50	Keenan Allen	18.30
WR	Christian Watson	22.60	Christian Watson	22.60
TE	Travis Kelce	13.90	Travis Kelce	13.90
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	9.00	Travis Etienne Jr.	9.00
W/R/T	Dalton Kincaid	3.80	Makai Lemon	5.90
DEF	Vikings	20.38	Vikings	20.38

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Brock Purdy, 31.28 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drake London scored 30.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.40 points left. Optimal 159.11 vs. actual 134.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	20.44	Lamar Jackson	20.44
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	14.20	Aaron Jones Sr.	14.20
RB	Cam Skattebo	13.00	Cam Skattebo	13.00
WR	Drake London	30.40	Drake London	30.40
WR	George Pickens	15.20	George Pickens	15.20
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	24.10	Harold Fannin Jr.	24.10
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	7.30	Kalif Raymond	21.30
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	4.00	Pat Bryant	14.40
DEF	Steelers	6.07	Steelers	6.07

Carried by One Guy: Drake London, 30.40 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2026

Adam

155.71

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

104.38

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 165.91 vs. actual 155.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyler Shough	23.80	Tyler Shough	23.80
RB	De'Von Achane	1.70	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	9.70
RB	Kyle Monangai	3.10	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	5.30
WR	Garrett Wilson	28.70	Garrett Wilson	28.70
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	37.36	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	37.36
TE	Tyler Warren	14.70	Tyler Warren	14.70
W/R/T	Michael Wilson	25.90	Michael Wilson	25.90
W/R/T	Carnell Tate	11.80	Carnell Tate	11.80
DEF	Chiefs	8.65	Chiefs	8.65

Carried by One Guy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 37.36 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.06 points left. Optimal 119.44 vs. actual 104.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bryce Young	13.64	Bryce Young	13.64
RB	D'Andre Swift	10.80	D'Andre Swift	10.80
RB	Kenneth Walker III	21.30	Kenneth Walker III	21.30
WR	Rashid Shaheed	5.24	Marvin Harrison Jr.	7.00
WR	Matthew Golden	23.00	Matthew Golden	23.00
TE	Oronde Gadsden	0.00	Colston Loveland	7.10
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	20.00	Jordan Addison	20.00
W/R/T	Dontayvion Wicks	5.20	Mike Washington Jr.	11.40
DEF	Panthers	5.20	Panthers	5.20

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Golden, 23.00 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2026

Kev

104.45

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

140.36

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.50 points left. Optimal 130.95 vs. actual 104.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	18.94	Dak Prescott	18.94
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	6.80	J.K. Dobbins	6.30
RB	Jadarian Price	1.20	Rhamondre Stevenson	6.80
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	24.80	Jakobi Meyers	19.40
WR	Malik Nabers	7.60	Ja'Marr Chase	24.80
TE	Dalton Schultz	6.00	Brock Bowers	29.60
W/R/T	J.K. Dobbins	6.30	Tre Tucker	8.30
W/R/T	Brock Bowers	29.60	Tre' Harris	13.60
DEF	Seahawks	3.21	Seahawks	3.21

Carried by One Guy: Brock Bowers, 29.60 points (28.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bijan Robinson scored 37.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.06 points left. Optimal 148.42 vs. actual 140.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	12.62	Jalen Hurts	12.62
RB	Kyren Williams	21.80	Kyren Williams	21.80
RB	Bijan Robinson	37.30	Bijan Robinson	37.30
WR	Jameson Williams	8.90	Jameson Williams	8.90
WR	Rashee Rice	15.80	Rashee Rice	15.80
TE	Juwan Johnson	23.30	Juwan Johnson	23.30
W/R/T	Parker Washington	13.00	Rachaad White	11.86
W/R/T	Jalen Coker	3.80	Parker Washington	13.00
DEF	Bengals	3.84	Bengals	3.84

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 37.30 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2026

Demich

150.97

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Niz

130.60

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.04 points left. Optimal 158.01 vs. actual 150.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	22.58	Joe Burrow	22.58
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	41.40	Jahmyr Gibbs	41.40
RB	Quinshon Judkins	9.90	Woody Marks	10.14
WR	Chris Olave	21.70	Mack Hollins	14.70
WR	Romeo Doubs	7.90	Chris Olave	21.70
TE	Brenton Strange	6.20	Brenton Strange	6.20
W/R/T	Chuba Hubbard	15.00	Chuba Hubbard	15.00
W/R/T	Jeremiyah Love	21.90	Jeremiyah Love	21.90
DEF	Rams	4.39	Rams	4.39

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 41.40 points (27.4% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.58 points left. Optimal 140.18 vs. actual 130.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	22.90	Matthew Stafford	22.90
RB	Jonathan Taylor	9.20	Brian Robinson Jr.	12.08
RB	Jaylen Warren	22.60	Jaylen Warren	22.60
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	16.98	Deebo Samuel Sr.	16.98
WR	Ladd McConkey	10.60	Zay Flowers	15.40
TE	Sam LaPorta	7.40	Jake Ferguson	9.30
W/R/T	Davante Adams	22.70	Davante Adams	22.70
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	18.70	Wan'Dale Robinson	18.70
DEF	Patriots	-0.48	Patriots	-0.48

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 22.90 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jahmyr Gibbs scored 41.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2026

Josh

119.84

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Horgan

82.58

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.30 points left. Optimal 123.14 vs. actual 119.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	20.48	Jordan Love	20.48
RB	Ashton Jeanty	12.30	Kenny Gainwell	7.20
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	3.90	Ashton Jeanty	12.30
WR	Terry McLaurin	19.70	Terry McLaurin	19.70
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	11.90	Amon-Ra St. Brown	11.90
TE	Trey McBride	16.50	Trey McBride	16.50
W/R/T	Josh Downs	12.70	Josh Downs	12.70
W/R/T	Devaughn Vele	6.90	Devaughn Vele	6.90
DEF	Broncos	15.46	Broncos	15.46

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Love, 20.48 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 82.58 vs. actual 82.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	10.42	Kyler Murray	10.42
RB	Tony Pollard	13.60	Tony Pollard	13.60
RB	RJ Harvey	10.70	RJ Harvey	10.70
WR	Justin Jefferson	5.20	Justin Jefferson	5.20
WR	Emeka Egbuka	11.20	Emeka Egbuka	11.20
TE	Mark Andrews	5.40	Mark Andrews	5.40
W/R/T	DJ Moore	12.70	DJ Moore	12.70
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	12.50	DeVonta Smith	12.50
DEF	49ers	0.86	49ers	0.86

Carried by One Guy: Tony Pollard, 13.60 points (16.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–2	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	3–0	2.000	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Kev	1–2	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–2	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–2	1.308	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	2–1	1.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	2–1	2.308	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Nevans	2–1	1.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	3–0	1.769	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Martin	1–2	1.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–2	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–2	1.692	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Niz	1–2	2.231	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Horgan	1–2	0.462	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0

2026 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3