2026 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2026

j-mart

165.09

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

131.01

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.70 points left. Optimal 171.79 vs. actual 165.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	22.48	Jared Goff	22.48
RB	James Cook III	16.30	James Cook III	16.30
RB	Omarion Hampton	13.30	Ollie Gordon II	20.00
WR	Jaylen Waddle	14.50	Jaylen Waddle	14.50
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	47.20	Tetairoa McMillan	47.20
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.70	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.70
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	18.50	DK Metcalf	18.50
W/R/T	Rome Odunze	15.40	Rome Odunze	15.40
DEF	Packers	9.71	Packers	9.71

Carried by One Guy: Tetairoa McMillan, 47.20 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.40 points left. Optimal 158.41 vs. actual 131.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	18.52	Josh Allen	18.52
RB	Derrick Henry	15.90	Derrick Henry	15.90
RB	Bucky Irving	6.10	Braelon Allen	8.70
WR	CeeDee Lamb	43.30	CeeDee Lamb	43.30
WR	Khalil Shakir	13.20	Khalil Shakir	13.20
TE	Tucker Kraft	16.50	Tucker Kraft	16.50
W/R/T	Blake Corum	3.10	T.J. Hockenson	26.90
W/R/T	Braelon Allen	8.70	Brian Thomas Jr.	9.70
DEF	Texans	5.69	Texans	5.69

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 43.30 points (33.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tetairoa McMillan scored 47.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2026

Kev

119.35

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

144.22

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 128.15 vs. actual 119.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	20.10	Dak Prescott	20.10
RB	J.K. Dobbins	7.20	J.K. Dobbins	7.20
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	18.40	Rhamondre Stevenson	18.40
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	5.70	Tre Tucker	8.40
WR	Malik Nabers	25.20	Malik Nabers	25.20
TE	Brock Bowers	20.60	Brock Bowers	20.60
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	2.90	Jakobi Meyers	6.30
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	6.30	Tre' Harris	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	12.95	Seahawks	12.95

Carried by One Guy: Malik Nabers, 25.20 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Javonte Williams scored 31.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.80 points left. Optimal 156.02 vs. actual 144.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	13.56	Bo Nix	13.56
RB	Alvin Kamara	22.80	Alvin Kamara	22.80
RB	Javonte Williams	31.30	Javonte Williams	31.30
WR	Courtland Sutton	1.40	Puka Nacua	29.70
WR	Puka Nacua	29.70	Malachi Fields	13.20
TE	Isaiah Likely	13.60	Isaiah Likely	13.60
W/R/T	Mike Evans	12.60	Mike Evans	12.60
W/R/T	Luther Burden III	11.40	Luther Burden III	11.40
DEF	Bears	7.86	Bears	7.86

Carried by One Guy: Javonte Williams, 31.30 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2026

Demich

151.31

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam

125.48

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.00 points left. Optimal 170.31 vs. actual 151.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	25.72	Joe Burrow	25.72
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	17.70	Jahmyr Gibbs	17.70
RB	Quinshon Judkins	21.60	Quinshon Judkins	21.60
WR	Chris Olave	21.60	Mack Hollins	8.30
WR	Kayshon Boutte	6.60	Chris Olave	21.60
TE	Brenton Strange	16.50	Brenton Strange	16.50
W/R/T	Chuba Hubbard	27.90	Chuba Hubbard	27.90
W/R/T	Jeremiyah Love	6.50	Romeo Doubs	23.80
DEF	Rams	7.19	Rams	7.19

Carried by One Guy: Chuba Hubbard, 27.90 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.60 points left. Optimal 139.08 vs. actual 125.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyler Shough	15.94	Tyler Shough	15.94
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	7.00	MarShawn Lloyd	9.90
RB	Kyle Monangai	30.00	Kyle Monangai	30.00
WR	Garrett Wilson	5.70	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	12.60
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	12.60	Roman Wilson	16.40
TE	Tyler Warren	9.10	Tyler Warren	9.10
W/R/T	Michael Wilson	16.50	Michael Wilson	16.50
W/R/T	Carnell Tate	23.50	Carnell Tate	23.50
DEF	Chiefs	5.14	Chiefs	5.14

Carried by One Guy: Kyle Monangai, 30.00 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chuba Hubbard scored 27.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2026

Martin

105.84

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Horgan

99.21

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.70 points left. Optimal 108.54 vs. actual 105.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	18.88	Lamar Jackson	18.88
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.80	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.80
RB	Cam Skattebo	7.60	Cam Skattebo	7.60
WR	Drake London	14.60	Drake London	14.60
WR	George Pickens	9.50	George Pickens	9.50
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	11.70	Harold Fannin Jr.	11.70
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	8.50	Hunter Henry	11.20
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	11.00	Xavier Worthy	11.00
DEF	Steelers	7.26	Steelers	7.26

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 18.88 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 99.21 vs. actual 99.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	5.34	Marcus Mariota	5.34
RB	Tony Pollard	13.00	Tony Pollard	13.00
RB	RJ Harvey	20.58	RJ Harvey	20.58
WR	DJ Moore	2.70	DJ Moore	2.70
WR	Emeka Egbuka	3.30	Emeka Egbuka	3.30
TE	Mark Andrews	13.70	Mark Andrews	13.70
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	3.50	Michael Pittman Jr.	3.50
W/R/T	Emanuel Wilson	27.00	Emanuel Wilson	27.00
DEF	Browns	10.09	Browns	10.09

Carried by One Guy: Emanuel Wilson, 27.00 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Lamar Jackson scored 18.88; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2026

Krajcik

77.63

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

117.74

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.30 points left. Optimal 116.93 vs. actual 77.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	19.62	Brock Purdy	19.62
RB	Saquon Barkley	2.00	Tyler Allgeier	12.90
RB	Chase Brown	19.10	Chase Brown	19.10
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	9.10	Chris Godwin Jr.	9.10
WR	Christian Watson	7.70	Christian Watson	7.70
TE	Travis Kelce	3.50	Travis Kelce	3.50
W/R/T	Dalton Kincaid	1.70	Tyquan Thornton	30.10
W/R/T	Makai Lemon	5.70	Makai Lemon	5.70
DEF	Vikings	9.21	Vikings	9.21

Carried by One Guy: Brock Purdy, 19.62 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.10 points left. Optimal 123.84 vs. actual 117.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bryce Young	23.46	Drake Maye	26.16
RB	D'Andre Swift	7.40	D'Andre Swift	7.40
RB	Kenneth Walker III	32.90	Kenneth Walker III	32.90
WR	Jordan Addison	9.10	Jordan Addison	9.10
WR	Matthew Golden	11.70	Matthew Golden	11.70
TE	Colston Loveland	11.70	Colston Loveland	11.70
W/R/T	Darren Waller	6.60	Darren Waller	6.60
W/R/T	Dontayvion Wicks	4.80	Marvin Harrison Jr.	8.20
DEF	Cardinals	10.08	Cardinals	10.08

Carried by One Guy: Kenneth Walker III, 32.90 points (27.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2026

Josh

98.03

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

124.47

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.30 points left. Optimal 99.33 vs. actual 98.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	13.08	Jordan Love	13.08
RB	Ashton Jeanty	18.60	Tank Bigsby	5.50
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	4.20	Ashton Jeanty	18.60
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	15.50	Amon-Ra St. Brown	15.50
WR	Josh Downs	4.60	Josh Downs	4.60
TE	Trey McBride	10.10	Trey McBride	10.10
W/R/T	Kenny Gainwell	10.70	Kenny Gainwell	10.70
W/R/T	Devaughn Vele	17.40	Devaughn Vele	17.40
DEF	Broncos	3.85	Broncos	3.85

Carried by One Guy: Ashton Jeanty, 18.60 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kyren Williams scored 36.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.54 points left. Optimal 132.01 vs. actual 124.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	13.52	Jalen Hurts	13.52
RB	Kyren Williams	36.70	Kyren Williams	36.70
RB	Bijan Robinson	29.70	Bijan Robinson	29.70
WR	Jameson Williams	18.20	Jameson Williams	18.20
WR	Rashee Rice	0.00	Antonio Williams	5.10
TE	Juwan Johnson	11.90	Juwan Johnson	11.90
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	5.00	Quentin Johnston	5.00
W/R/T	Parker Washington	2.06	Ted Hurst III	4.50
DEF	Ravens	7.39	Ravens	7.39

Carried by One Guy: Kyren Williams, 36.70 points (29.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2026

Miller

140.24

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Niz

143.57

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.70 points left. Optimal 147.94 vs. actual 140.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	13.08	Trevor Lawrence	13.08
RB	Christian McCaffrey	16.00	Christian McCaffrey	16.00
RB	David Montgomery	4.30	Bhayshul Tuten	11.10
WR	Tee Higgins	28.70	Tee Higgins	28.70
WR	Denzel Boston	12.90	Denzel Boston	12.90
TE	George Kittle	17.00	George Kittle	17.00
W/R/T	Nico Collins	32.80	Nico Collins	32.80
W/R/T	Bhayshul Tuten	11.10	Malik Washington	12.00
DEF	Bills	4.36	Bills	4.36

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Nico Collins, 32.80 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Zay Flowers scored 27.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.90 points left. Optimal 175.47 vs. actual 143.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	11.68	C.J. Stroud	25.08
RB	Jonathan Taylor	22.70	Jonathan Taylor	22.70
RB	Jaylen Warren	15.60	Jaylen Warren	15.60
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	18.98	Deebo Samuel Sr.	18.98
WR	Zay Flowers	27.80	Zay Flowers	27.80
TE	Sam LaPorta	22.40	Sam LaPorta	22.40
W/R/T	Davante Adams	7.20	Wan'Dale Robinson	11.00
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	11.00	Brian Robinson Jr.	25.70
DEF	Patriots	6.21	Patriots	6.21

Carried by One Guy: Zay Flowers, 27.80 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–2	2.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	3–1	2.692	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Kev	1–3	1.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	2–2	2.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–3	1.308	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	3–1	2.231	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	2–2	2.846	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Nevans	2–2	2.538	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Josh	3–1	1.846	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Martin	2–2	1.462	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Fischer	2–2	1.231	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Joe Shore	2–2	2.154	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Niz	2–2	3.000	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Horgan	1–3	0.615	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0

2026 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4