2026 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2026

j-mart

140.76

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

94.91

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.10 points left. Optimal 155.86 vs. actual 140.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	31.78	Jared Goff	31.78
RB	James Cook III	22.90	James Cook III	22.90
RB	Omarion Hampton	17.50	Omarion Hampton	17.50
WR	Jaylen Waddle	23.80	Jaylen Waddle	23.80
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	17.10	Tetairoa McMillan	17.10
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	2.50	Kyle Pitts Sr.	2.50
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	6.70	Rashod Bateman	21.80
W/R/T	Chuba Hubbard	14.40	Chuba Hubbard	14.40
DEF	Ravens	4.08	Ravens	4.08

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 31.78 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.18 points left. Optimal 117.09 vs. actual 94.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	16.16	Jalen Hurts	16.16
RB	Kyren Williams	15.70	Kyren Williams	15.70
RB	Bijan Robinson	11.10	Bijan Robinson	11.10
WR	Jameson Williams	5.30	Rashee Rice	12.30
WR	Rashee Rice	12.30	Jalen Coker	15.58
TE	Juwan Johnson	10.60	Juwan Johnson	10.60
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	2.40	Rachaad White	14.30
W/R/T	Parker Washington	17.04	Parker Washington	17.04
DEF	Eagles	4.31	Eagles	4.31

Carried by One Guy: Parker Washington, 17.04 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2026

Miller

93.15

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Big Hut

68.05

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.24 points left. Optimal 124.39 vs. actual 93.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	6.16	Malik Willis	12.48
RB	Christian McCaffrey	22.60	Christian McCaffrey	22.60
RB	David Montgomery	4.40	Bhayshul Tuten	14.20
WR	Tee Higgins	14.50	Tee Higgins	14.50
WR	KC Concepcion Jr.	8.20	KC Concepcion Jr.	8.20
TE	Dallas Goedert	1.40	George Kittle	18.00
W/R/T	George Kittle	18.00	Malik Washington	10.22
W/R/T	Bhayshul Tuten	14.20	Denzel Boston	20.50
DEF	Buccaneers	3.69	Buccaneers	3.69

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 22.60 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.70 points left. Optimal 73.75 vs. actual 68.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	7.72	Caleb Williams	7.72
RB	Javonte Williams	8.00	Javonte Williams	8.00
RB	Breece Hall	14.20	Breece Hall	14.20
WR	Courtland Sutton	5.50	Mike Evans	8.40
WR	Luther Burden III	6.20	Luther Burden III	6.20
TE	Isaiah Likely	8.30	Isaiah Likely	8.30
W/R/T	Mike Evans	8.40	Alvin Kamara	7.20
W/R/T	Malachi Fields	5.00	Tyjae Spears	9.00
DEF	Chargers	4.73	Chargers	4.73

Carried by One Guy: Breece Hall, 14.20 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2026

Demich

107.29

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

139.87

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.30 points left. Optimal 116.59 vs. actual 107.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	12.18	Joe Burrow	16.18
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.30	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.30
RB	Quinshon Judkins	9.80	Quinshon Judkins	9.80
WR	Chris Olave	22.60	Chris Olave	22.60
WR	Rome Odunze	7.30	Romeo Doubs	12.60
TE	Brenton Strange	3.70	Brenton Strange	3.70
W/R/T	Woody Marks	9.30	Woody Marks	9.30
W/R/T	Jeremiyah Love	7.50	Jeremiyah Love	7.50
DEF	Rams	11.61	Rams	11.61

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 23.30 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 40.82; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.82 points left. Optimal 148.69 vs. actual 139.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	40.82	Josh Allen	40.82
RB	Derrick Henry	17.70	Derrick Henry	17.70
RB	Bucky Irving	13.00	Bucky Irving	13.00
WR	CeeDee Lamb	37.30	CeeDee Lamb	37.30
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	7.00	Khalil Shakir	7.02
TE	Tucker Kraft	3.50	T.J. Hockenson	5.90
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	2.10	Blake Corum	10.20
W/R/T	Blake Corum	10.20	Braelon Allen	8.50
DEF	Texans	8.25	Texans	8.25

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 40.82 points (29.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2026

Krajcik

101.75

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh

130.06

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.96 points left. Optimal 141.71 vs. actual 101.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	8.02	Brock Purdy	28.48
RB	Saquon Barkley	3.00	Travis Etienne Jr.	7.10
RB	Chase Brown	11.20	Chase Brown	11.20
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	8.80	Chris Godwin Jr.	8.80
WR	Christian Watson	14.10	Christian Watson	14.10
TE	Travis Kelce	27.10	Travis Kelce	27.10
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	7.10	Tyler Allgeier	3.90
W/R/T	Tyler Allgeier	3.90	Dalton Kincaid	22.50
DEF	Vikings	18.53	Vikings	18.53

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 27.10 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Amon-Ra St. Brown scored 37.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.14 points left. Optimal 142.20 vs. actual 130.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	14.74	Jayden Daniels	14.74
RB	Kenny Gainwell	6.06	Tank Bigsby	11.80
RB	Ashton Jeanty	10.30	TreVeyon Henderson	13.60
WR	Terry McLaurin	7.00	Amon-Ra St. Brown	37.20
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	37.20	Adonai Mitchell	12.30
TE	Trey McBride	18.10	Trey McBride	18.10
W/R/T	Josh Downs	14.20	Josh Downs	14.20
W/R/T	TreVeyon Henderson	13.60	Devaughn Vele	11.40
DEF	Broncos	8.86	Broncos	8.86

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 37.20 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2026

Martin

100.29

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

122.80

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.40 points left. Optimal 111.69 vs. actual 100.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	14.80	Lamar Jackson	14.80
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.50	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.50
RB	Cam Skattebo	9.50	Cam Skattebo	9.50
WR	Drake London	8.90	Drake London	8.90
WR	George Pickens	10.00	George Pickens	10.00
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	10.40	Harold Fannin Jr.	10.40
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	21.70	Stefon Diggs	21.70
W/R/T	Jonathon Brooks	2.10	Xavier Worthy	13.50
DEF	Steelers	10.39	Steelers	10.39

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 21.70 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Panthers scored 26.02; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.32 points left. Optimal 127.12 vs. actual 122.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bryce Young	24.08	Bryce Young	24.08
RB	D'Andre Swift	12.90	D'Andre Swift	12.90
RB	Rico Dowdle	6.40	Rico Dowdle	6.40
WR	Jordan Addison	4.10	Rashid Shaheed	8.42
WR	Matthew Golden	9.80	Matthew Golden	9.80
TE	Colston Loveland	1.30	Colston Loveland	1.30
W/R/T	Kenneth Walker III	25.80	Kenneth Walker III	25.80
W/R/T	Dontayvion Wicks	12.40	Dontayvion Wicks	12.40
DEF	Panthers	26.02	Panthers	26.02

Carried by One Guy: Panthers, 26.02 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2026

Adam

129.43

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Niz

135.57

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.00 points left. Optimal 140.43 vs. actual 129.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyler Shough	22.38	Tyler Shough	22.38
RB	De'Von Achane	12.30	De'Von Achane	12.30
RB	Kyle Monangai	7.80	Kyle Monangai	7.80
WR	Garrett Wilson	16.70	Garrett Wilson	16.70
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	44.50	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	44.50
TE	Tyler Warren	14.40	Tyler Warren	14.40
W/R/T	Michael Wilson	3.80	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	5.80
W/R/T	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	5.80	Jonah Coleman	14.80
DEF	Chiefs	1.75	Chiefs	1.75

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 44.50 points (34.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Davante Adams scored 41.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 48.78 points left. Optimal 184.35 vs. actual 135.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jaxson Dart	0.80	Matthew Stafford	28.98
RB	Jonathan Taylor	29.20	Jonathan Taylor	29.20
RB	Jaylen Warren	9.70	Jaylen Warren	9.70
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	7.08	Davante Adams	41.50
WR	Ladd McConkey	6.50	Deebo Samuel Sr.	7.08
TE	Sam LaPorta	17.20	Sam LaPorta	17.20
W/R/T	Davante Adams	41.50	Brian Robinson Jr.	8.70
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	1.90	Jake Ferguson	20.30
DEF	Patriots	21.69	Patriots	21.69

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 41.50 points (30.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 15 – 21, 2026

Kev

111.72

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

86.23

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.50 points left. Optimal 138.22 vs. actual 111.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	29.76	Dak Prescott	29.76
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	3.60	Rhamondre Stevenson	3.60
RB	Jadarian Price	5.00	Jadarian Price	5.00
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	26.50	Ja'Marr Chase	26.50
WR	Malik Nabers	1.10	Tre Tucker	24.90
TE	Dalton Schultz	28.00	Dalton Schultz	28.00
W/R/T	J.K. Dobbins	3.60	Tre' Harris	6.30
W/R/T	Antonio Williams	5.40	Antonio Williams	5.40
DEF	Seahawks	8.76	Seahawks	8.76

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 29.76 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.50 points left. Optimal 103.73 vs. actual 86.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	7.88	Justin Herbert	7.88
RB	Tony Pollard	7.50	Tony Pollard	7.50
RB	DeeJay Dallas	3.00	DeeJay Dallas	3.00
WR	DJ Moore	-0.10	Justin Jefferson	8.50
WR	Justin Jefferson	8.50	DeVonta Smith	29.70
TE	Mark Andrews	10.90	Mark Andrews	10.90
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	29.70	Emeka Egbuka	10.30
W/R/T	Emeka Egbuka	10.30	Terrance Ferguson	17.40
DEF	49ers	8.55	49ers	8.55

Carried by One Guy: DeVonta Smith, 29.70 points (34.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dak Prescott scored 29.76; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–1	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	2–0	1.077	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Kev	1–1	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	0–2	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–1	0.769	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Big Hut	1–1	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–1	1.308	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Nevans	2–0	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	2–0	1.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	0–2	0.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–1	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	0–2	0.923	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Niz	1–1	1.615	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Horgan	1–1	0.385	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0

2026 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2