2026 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026

j-mart

91.15

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam

128.48

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.30 points left. Optimal 95.45 vs. actual 91.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	9.04	Jared Goff	9.04
RB	James Cook III	18.10	James Cook III	18.10
RB	Ollie Gordon II	6.90	Ollie Gordon II	6.90
WR	DK Metcalf	1.40	Jaylen Waddle	14.90
WR	Rome Odunze	12.70	Rome Odunze	12.70
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	2.60	Kyle Pitts Sr.	2.60
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	14.90	Keaton Mitchell	5.70
W/R/T	Tetairoa McMillan	11.80	Tetairoa McMillan	11.80
DEF	Commanders	13.71	Commanders	13.71

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 18.10 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.10 points left. Optimal 129.58 vs. actual 128.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	3.46	Jacoby Brissett	3.46
RB	Samaje Perine	3.34	Samaje Perine	3.34
RB	Jonah Coleman	20.40	Jonah Coleman	20.40
WR	Garrett Wilson	14.30	Garrett Wilson	14.30
WR	Michael Wilson	28.80	Michael Wilson	28.80
TE	Tyler Warren	5.80	Greg Dulcich	8.30
W/R/T	Greg Dulcich	8.30	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	25.80
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	25.80	Chris Bell	6.90
DEF	Buccaneers	18.28	Buccaneers	18.28

Carried by One Guy: Michael Wilson, 28.80 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026

Miller

158.09

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev

115.66

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 158.09 vs. actual 158.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	19.40	Trevor Lawrence	19.40
RB	Justice Hill	7.50	Justice Hill	7.50
RB	Bhayshul Tuten	31.90	Bhayshul Tuten	31.90
WR	Tee Higgins	39.50	Tee Higgins	39.50
WR	KC Concepcion Jr.	7.12	KC Concepcion Jr.	7.12
TE	Dallas Goedert	7.20	Dallas Goedert	7.20
W/R/T	Malik Washington	15.28	Malik Washington	15.28
W/R/T	Denzel Boston	9.70	Denzel Boston	9.70
DEF	Jaguars	20.49	Jaguars	20.49

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 39.50 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 124.46 vs. actual 115.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	19.80	Dak Prescott	19.80
RB	J.K. Dobbins	1.30	Rhamondre Stevenson	12.00
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	12.00	Jadarian Price	5.70
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	33.10	Jakobi Meyers	4.40
WR	Tre Tucker	0.00	Ja'Marr Chase	33.10
TE	Brock Bowers	28.20	Brock Bowers	28.20
W/R/T	Antonio Williams	10.40	Antonio Williams	10.40
W/R/T	Caleb Douglas	8.30	Caleb Douglas	8.30
DEF	Seahawks	2.56	Seahawks	2.56

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 33.10 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026

Demich

129.53

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Josh

131.75

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.46 points left. Optimal 141.99 vs. actual 129.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	41.48	Joe Burrow	41.48
RB	Chuba Hubbard	24.90	Chuba Hubbard	24.90
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	26.80	Jahmyr Gibbs	26.80
WR	Elic Ayomanor	6.40	Treylon Burks	11.10
WR	Ja'Kobi Lane	2.30	Elic Ayomanor	6.40
TE	Brenton Strange	7.50	Brenton Strange	7.50
W/R/T	Quinshon Judkins	6.90	Quinshon Judkins	6.90
W/R/T	Jeremiyah Love	2.30	Seth McGowan	5.96
DEF	Rams	10.95	Rams	10.95

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 41.48 points (32.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adonai Mitchell scored 29.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.40 points left. Optimal 154.15 vs. actual 131.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	21.52	Jordan Love	21.52
RB	Kenny Gainwell	16.00	Kenny Gainwell	16.00
RB	Ashton Jeanty	10.30	Ashton Jeanty	10.30
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	12.60	Amon-Ra St. Brown	12.60
WR	Josh Downs	12.70	Josh Downs	12.70
TE	Trey McBride	20.20	Trey McBride	20.20
W/R/T	Adonai Mitchell	29.20	Adonai Mitchell	29.20
W/R/T	Jaydon Blue	5.78	Emmett Johnson	28.18
DEF	Broncos	3.45	Broncos	3.45

Carried by One Guy: Adonai Mitchell, 29.20 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026

Krajcik

109.50

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

122.20

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 50.40 points left. Optimal 159.90 vs. actual 109.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	28.18	Kirk Cousins	28.18
RB	Saquon Barkley	12.40	Saquon Barkley	12.40
RB	Chase Brown	16.10	Chase Brown	16.10
WR	Christian Watson	19.30	Keenan Allen	13.70
WR	Keon Coleman	1.40	Christian Watson	19.30
TE	Travis Kelce	11.70	Travis Kelce	11.70
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	0.00	Tyler Allgeier	38.10
W/R/T	Makai Lemon	11.70	Makai Lemon	11.70
DEF	Vikings	8.72	Vikings	8.72

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 28.18 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Puka Nacua scored 25.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 122.20 vs. actual 122.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	13.98	Caleb Williams	13.98
RB	Javonte Williams	6.70	Javonte Williams	6.70
RB	Dylan Sampson	13.88	Dylan Sampson	13.88
WR	Courtland Sutton	9.30	Courtland Sutton	9.30
WR	Luther Burden III	18.60	Luther Burden III	18.60
TE	Mike Gesicki	17.60	Mike Gesicki	17.60
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	7.70	Cooper Kupp	7.70
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	25.00	Puka Nacua	25.00
DEF	Raiders	9.44	Raiders	9.44

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 25.00 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026

Martin

82.40

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz

82.43

Rank 13; +5.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.30 points left. Optimal 93.70 vs. actual 82.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	0.00	Lamar Jackson	0.00
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	6.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	6.00
RB	Corey Kiner	3.80	Ty Johnson	5.30
WR	Drake London	1.80	Stefon Diggs	12.80
WR	George Pickens	6.80	George Pickens	6.80
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	25.40	Harold Fannin Jr.	25.40
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	12.80	Hunter Henry	6.00
W/R/T	Hunter Henry	6.00	Pat Freiermuth	11.60
DEF	Steelers	19.80	Steelers	19.80

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Harold Fannin Jr., 25.40 points (30.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jaylen Warren scored 23.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.60 points left. Optimal 99.03 vs. actual 82.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	8.28	Matthew Stafford	8.28
RB	Jonathan Taylor	6.70	Jonathan Taylor	6.70
RB	Jaylen Warren	23.30	Jaylen Warren	23.30
WR	Zay Flowers	0.00	Zay Flowers	0.00
WR	Ladd McConkey	12.60	Ladd McConkey	12.60
TE	Sam LaPorta	6.50	Sam LaPorta	6.50
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	15.70	Wan'Dale Robinson	15.70
W/R/T	Jake Ferguson	0.00	DeMario Douglas	16.60
DEF	Patriots	9.35	Patriots	9.35

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Warren, 23.30 points (28.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026

Nevans

151.37

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

120.75

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.46 points left. Optimal 156.83 vs. actual 151.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	26.56	Patrick Mahomes	27.44
RB	Derrick Henry	14.00	Derrick Henry	14.00
RB	Bucky Irving	23.00	Bucky Irving	23.00
WR	CeeDee Lamb	12.80	CeeDee Lamb	12.80
WR	Khalil Shakir	11.40	Ryan Flournoy	13.48
TE	Tucker Kraft	17.30	Tucker Kraft	17.30
W/R/T	Blake Corum	13.30	T.J. Hockenson	15.80
W/R/T	Braelon Allen	25.30	Braelon Allen	25.30
DEF	Lions	7.71	Lions	7.71

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 26.56 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.80 points left. Optimal 131.55 vs. actual 120.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	22.46	Drake Maye	22.46
RB	Kenneth Walker III	12.40	Kenneth Walker III	12.40
RB	Jordan Mason	2.00	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	12.80
WR	Jordan Addison	11.60	Jordan Addison	11.60
WR	Matthew Golden	20.90	Matthew Golden	20.90
TE	Colston Loveland	11.50	Colston Loveland	11.50
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	27.90	D'Andre Swift	27.90
W/R/T	Rico Dowdle	11.60	Rico Dowdle	11.60
DEF	Chiefs	0.39	Chiefs	0.39

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 27.90 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026

Joe Shore

112.68

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

116.12

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.18 points left. Optimal 123.86 vs. actual 112.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	19.90	Kyler Murray	19.90
RB	Kyren Williams	12.90	Rachaad White	14.00
RB	Bijan Robinson	7.60	Kyren Williams	12.90
WR	Parker Washington	3.60	Jameson Williams	17.00
WR	Jalen Coker	9.60	Jalen Coker	9.60
TE	Dalton Kincaid	18.60	Dalton Kincaid	18.60
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	17.00	Tyler Goodson	8.38
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	18.30	Rashee Rice	18.30
DEF	Bengals	5.18	Bengals	5.18

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 19.90 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tony Pollard scored 30.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.40 points left. Optimal 120.52 vs. actual 116.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	18.00	Geno Smith	18.00
RB	Josh Jacobs	23.20	Josh Jacobs	23.20
RB	Tony Pollard	30.70	Tony Pollard	30.70
WR	Justin Jefferson	14.30	DJ Moore	16.60
WR	Omar Cooper Jr.	0.00	Justin Jefferson	14.30
TE	Chig Okonkwo	3.20	Chig Okonkwo	3.20
W/R/T	DJ Moore	16.60	Mark Andrews	4.40
W/R/T	Zach Charbonnet	5.90	Zach Charbonnet	5.90
DEF	Browns	4.22	Browns	4.22

Carried by One Guy: Tony Pollard, 30.70 points (26.4% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–4	3.692	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Miller	5–3	4.923	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Kev	3–5	4.231	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Demich	3–5	4.692	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Krajcik	3–5	2.077	+7.0	+0.538	3 / 1
Big Hut	7–1	5.077	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	4–4	4.385	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Nevans	5–3	5.692	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Josh	6–2	4.615	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Martin	2–6	2.462	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Fischer	4–4	3.692	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 2
Joe Shore	3–5	3.923	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Niz	4–4	4.308	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 2
Horgan	3–5	2.231	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0

2026 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8