2021 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 2 – 8, 2021

j-mart

112.28

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

176.52

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.00 points left. Optimal 117.28 vs. actual 112.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	14.02	Ryan Tannehill	14.02
WR	Keenan Allen	24.40	Keenan Allen	24.40
WR	DJ Moore	7.60	DJ Moore	7.60
RB	Alvin Kamara	20.40	Alvin Kamara	20.40
RB	Jeremy McNichols	6.50	Jeremy McNichols	6.50
TE	Darren Waller	16.20	Darren Waller	16.20
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	8.80	Carlos Hyde	6.30
W/R/T	Khalil Herbert	1.30	Jamison Crowder	8.80
K	Matt Gay	11.00	Matt Gay	11.00
DEF	Chargers	2.06	Chargers	2.06

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 24.40 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.32 points left. Optimal 181.84 vs. actual 176.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	21.34	Jimmy Garoppolo	21.34
WR	Cole Beasley	11.30	Cole Beasley	11.30
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	8.90	Deonte Harty	14.22
RB	Christian McCaffrey	14.60	Christian McCaffrey	14.60
RB	James Conner	40.30	James Conner	40.30
TE	George Kittle	22.10	George Kittle	22.10
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	11.60	Brandin Cooks	11.60
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	22.60	Hollywood Brown	22.60
K	Matt Prater	6.00	Matt Prater	6.00
DEF	Dolphins	17.78	Dolphins	17.78

Carried by One Guy: James Conner, 40.30 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 2 – 8, 2021

Martin

103.15

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller

150.33

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.70 points left. Optimal 111.85 vs. actual 103.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	10.44	Patrick Mahomes	10.44
WR	Robert Woods	17.40	Robert Woods	17.40
WR	Christian Kirk	16.42	Christian Kirk	16.42
RB	Damien Harris	10.30	Jordan Howard	13.10
RB	Zack Moss	4.40	Damien Harris	10.30
TE	Dallas Goedert	7.30	Dallas Goedert	7.30
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	19.38	Brandon Aiyuk	19.38
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	6.00	Laviska Shenault Jr.	6.00
K	Younghoe Koo	8.00	Younghoe Koo	8.00
DEF	Saints	3.51	Saints	3.51

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Aiyuk, 19.38 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 150.33 vs. actual 150.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	16.68	Jalen Hurts	16.68
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	5.10	Marvin Jones Jr.	5.10
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	17.40	Michael Pittman Jr.	17.40
RB	AJ Dillon	13.00	AJ Dillon	13.00
RB	Javonte Williams	13.10	Javonte Williams	13.10
TE	Pat Freiermuth	21.30	Pat Freiermuth	21.30
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	18.00	Hunter Renfrow	18.00
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	20.60	Darnell Mooney	20.60
K	Tyler Bass	6.00	Tyler Bass	6.00
DEF	Browns	19.15	Browns	19.15

Carried by One Guy: Pat Freiermuth, 21.30 points (14.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 2 – 8, 2021

Demich

117.23

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

114.15

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.42 points left. Optimal 120.65 vs. actual 117.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	18.88	Dak Prescott	18.88
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	11.30	Deebo Samuel Sr.	11.30
WR	Tee Higgins	13.80	Tee Higgins	13.80
RB	Michael Carter	9.60	Michael Carter	9.60
RB	Elijah Mitchell	12.90	Elijah Mitchell	12.90
TE	Travis Kelce	17.80	Travis Kelce	17.80
W/R/T	Josh Jacobs	13.50	Mark Ingram II	11.40
W/R/T	Rondale Moore	7.98	Josh Jacobs	13.50
K	Chris Boswell	15.00	Chris Boswell	15.00
DEF	Jets	-3.53	Jets	-3.53

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 18.88 points (15.6% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.20 points left. Optimal 117.35 vs. actual 114.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	33.64	Justin Herbert	33.64
WR	Tyreek Hill	7.30	Tyreek Hill	7.30
WR	Mike Williams	7.80	Mike Williams	7.80
RB	Mike Davis	2.80	Mike Davis	2.80
RB	Jonathan Taylor	36.00	Jonathan Taylor	36.00
TE	Mo Alie-Cox	3.80	Mo Alie-Cox	3.80
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	4.80	Randall Cobb	8.00
W/R/T	Chase Claypool	7.30	Chase Claypool	7.30
K	Nick Folk	6.00	Nick Folk	6.00
DEF	Colts	4.71	Colts	4.71

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 36.00 points (31.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dak Prescott scored 18.88; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 2 – 8, 2021

Niz

105.19

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Josh

98.70

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.00 points left. Optimal 121.19 vs. actual 105.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	21.58	Kirk Cousins	21.58
WR	Adam Thielen	8.60	Adam Thielen	8.60
WR	Allen Robinson	10.80	Allen Robinson	10.80
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	22.90	Cordarrelle Patterson	22.90
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	5.30	Devin Singletary	12.90
TE	Mark Andrews	9.40	Mark Andrews	9.40
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	4.10	Van Jefferson	7.10
W/R/T	Van Jefferson	7.10	Marquez Callaway	11.50
K	Justin Tucker	10.00	Graham Gano	11.00
DEF	Rams	5.41	Rams	5.41

Carried by One Guy: Cordarrelle Patterson, 22.90 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.00 points left. Optimal 107.70 vs. actual 98.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	11.90	Jordan Love	11.90
WR	Jerry Jeudy	12.90	Jerry Jeudy	12.90
WR	CeeDee Lamb	4.30	CeeDee Lamb	4.30
RB	Dalvin Cook	17.20	Dalvin Cook	17.20
RB	Myles Gaskin	15.70	Myles Gaskin	15.70
TE	Mike Gesicki	9.40	Mike Gesicki	9.40
W/R/T	Jared Cook	10.80	Sony Michel	10.60
W/R/T	D'Ernest Johnson	1.60	Jared Cook	10.80
K	Mason Crosby	1.00	Mason Crosby	1.00
DEF	Cardinals	13.90	Cardinals	13.90

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 17.20 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cordarrelle Patterson scored 22.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 2 – 8, 2021

Fischer

124.00

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev

72.63

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.10 points left. Optimal 143.10 vs. actual 124.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	7.38	Joe Burrow	7.38
WR	Cooper Kupp	20.50	Davante Adams	10.20
WR	Courtland Sutton	3.90	Cooper Kupp	20.50
RB	Joe Mixon	28.00	Joe Mixon	28.00
RB	Ty Johnson	12.10	Ty Johnson	12.10
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	9.20	Kyle Pitts Sr.	9.20
W/R/T	Davante Adams	10.20	Samaje Perine	5.70
W/R/T	Boston Scott	4.00	Nyheim Miller-Hines	21.30
K	Daniel Carlson	8.00	Daniel Carlson	8.00
DEF	Patriots	20.72	Patriots	20.72

Carried by One Guy: Joe Mixon, 28.00 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.90 points left. Optimal 83.53 vs. actual 72.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	13.06	Matthew Stafford	13.06
WR	Justin Jefferson	17.00	Justin Jefferson	17.00
WR	Kadarius Toney	1.70	Nico Collins	5.50
RB	Austin Ekeler	11.20	Austin Ekeler	11.20
RB	Kenny Gainwell	6.30	Kenny Gainwell	6.30
TE	Albert Okwuegbunam Jr.	6.50	Albert Okwuegbunam Jr.	6.50
W/R/T	Derrick Gore	2.90	Derrick Gore	2.90
W/R/T	Nico Collins	5.50	Rhamondre Stevenson	12.60
K	Greg Zuerlein	0.00	Greg Zuerlein	0.00
DEF	Panthers	8.47	Panthers	8.47

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 17.00 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 2 – 8, 2021

Nevans

139.65

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

117.06

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.90 points left. Optimal 153.55 vs. actual 139.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	9.56	Josh Allen	9.56
WR	Tyler Boyd	2.10	Emmanuel Sanders	10.50
WR	A.J. Brown	9.20	A.J. Brown	9.20
RB	Melvin Gordon III	17.50	Melvin Gordon III	17.50
RB	Nick Chubb	32.30	Nick Chubb	32.30
TE	Evan Engram	12.80	Evan Engram	12.80
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	10.50	Kenyan Drake	16.00
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	27.40	Elijah Moore	27.40
K	Brian Johnson	9.00	Brian Johnson	9.00
DEF	Bills	9.29	Bills	9.29

Carried by One Guy: Nick Chubb, 32.30 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.60 points left. Optimal 125.66 vs. actual 117.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	32.64	Lamar Jackson	32.64
WR	Amari Cooper	5.70	Stefon Diggs	14.50
WR	Stefon Diggs	14.50	Jaylen Waddle	17.24
RB	Devontae Booker	15.20	Devontae Booker	15.20
RB	Darrel Williams	10.70	Darrel Williams	10.70
TE	Dalton Schultz	9.40	Dalton Schultz	9.40
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	5.30	Brandon Bolden	10.10
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	17.24	Tyler Conklin	9.50
K	Harrison Butker	8.00	Harrison Butker	8.00
DEF	Ravens	-1.62	Ravens	-1.62

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 32.64 points (27.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Nick Chubb scored 32.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 2 – 8, 2021

Adam

103.54

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Joe Shore

94.73

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.70 points left. Optimal 113.24 vs. actual 103.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Teddy Bridgewater	21.86	Teddy Bridgewater	21.86
WR	Kendrick Bourne	6.40	Kendrick Bourne	6.40
WR	Diontae Johnson	11.70	Diontae Johnson	11.70
RB	Devonta Freeman	16.30	Devonta Freeman	16.30
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	12.60	Ezekiel Elliott	12.60
TE	Tyler Higbee	10.10	Tyler Higbee	10.10
W/R/T	Adrian Peterson	9.60	Dan Arnold	10.00
W/R/T	Chase Edmonds	0.30	Adrian Peterson	9.60
K	Greg Joseph	7.00	Greg Joseph	7.00
DEF	Steelers	7.68	Steelers	7.68

Carried by One Guy: Teddy Bridgewater, 21.86 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.66 points left. Optimal 97.39 vs. actual 94.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	5.90	Tyrod Taylor	5.90
WR	Julio Jones	7.50	Julio Jones	7.50
WR	DeVonta Smith	24.60	DeVonta Smith	24.60
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	8.80	Darrell Henderson Jr.	8.80
RB	Najee Harris	16.80	Najee Harris	16.80
TE	Zach Ertz	5.70	Zach Ertz	5.70
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	1.94	Donovan Peoples-Jones	16.60
W/R/T	Donovan Peoples-Jones	16.60	Chuba Hubbard	4.60
K	Randy Bullock	4.00	Randy Bullock	4.00
DEF	Cowboys	2.89	Cowboys	2.89

Carried by One Guy: DeVonta Smith, 24.60 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Teddy Bridgewater scored 21.86; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–4	5.385	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Martin	4–5	3.077	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Miller	5–4	5.231	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Demich	8–1	5.231	+2.0	+0.154	2 / 0
Krajcik	8–1	6.385	+1.5	+0.115	2 / 1
Big Hut	6–3	5.615	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 2
Niz	3–6	3.385	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Josh	2–7	3.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	7–2	5.000	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Fischer	6–3	5.923	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	4–5	4.000	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Joe Shore	2–7	3.846	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	2–7	3.462	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	1–8	3.077	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2

2021 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9