2021 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2021

j-mart

114.05

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

135.14

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.20 points left. Optimal 127.25 vs. actual 114.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	21.20	Ryan Tannehill	21.20
WR	Keenan Allen	19.70	Keenan Allen	19.70
WR	DJ Moore	9.90	DJ Moore	9.90
RB	Leonard Fournette	7.30	Leonard Fournette	7.30
RB	Alvin Kamara	16.60	Alvin Kamara	16.60
TE	Gerald Everett	1.20	Gerald Everett	1.20
W/R/T	Equanimeous St. Brown	3.20	Jamison Crowder	16.40
W/R/T	Khalil Herbert	8.80	Khalil Herbert	8.80
K	Matt Gay	7.00	Matt Gay	7.00
DEF	Broncos	19.15	Broncos	19.15

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Tannehill, 21.20 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 27.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.70 points left. Optimal 142.84 vs. actual 135.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	13.82	Justin Herbert	13.82
WR	Tyreek Hill	27.40	Randall Cobb	16.50
WR	Mike Williams	3.90	Tyreek Hill	27.40
RB	J.D. McKissic	17.30	J.D. McKissic	17.30
RB	Jonathan Taylor	21.20	Jonathan Taylor	21.20
TE	Noah Fant	2.80	Noah Fant	2.80
W/R/T	Randall Cobb	16.50	Mike Davis	11.60
W/R/T	Chase Claypool	10.10	Chase Claypool	10.10
K	Nick Folk	14.00	Nick Folk	14.00
DEF	Commanders	8.12	Commanders	8.12

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 27.40 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2021

Miller

124.13

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Adam

128.83

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.60 points left. Optimal 129.73 vs. actual 124.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	11.22	Jalen Hurts	11.22
WR	DK Metcalf	22.30	DK Metcalf	22.30
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	30.60	Michael Pittman Jr.	30.60
RB	D'Andre Swift	8.10	D'Andre Swift	8.10
RB	Antonio Gibson	8.40	Antonio Gibson	8.40
TE	T.J. Hockenson	18.90	T.J. Hockenson	18.90
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.50	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.50
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	6.80	Darnell Mooney	12.40
K	Tyler Bass	10.00	Tyler Bass	10.00
DEF	Buccaneers	-0.69	Buccaneers	-0.69

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Pittman Jr., 30.60 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 27.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.60 points left. Optimal 138.43 vs. actual 128.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	27.20	Tom Brady	27.20
WR	A.J. Green	10.00	Mike Evans	12.80
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	8.60	Jamal Agnew	17.50
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	11.30	Ezekiel Elliott	11.30
RB	Chase Edmonds	15.90	Chase Edmonds	15.90
TE	Tyler Higbee	5.50	Tyler Higbee	5.50
W/R/T	Mike Evans	12.80	Giovani Bernard	10.70
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	15.80	Diontae Johnson	15.80
K	Greg Joseph	11.00	Greg Joseph	11.00
DEF	Steelers	10.73	Steelers	10.73

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 27.20 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2021

Krajcik

102.18

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Josh

86.44

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.18 points left. Optimal 108.36 vs. actual 102.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	9.06	Kyler Murray	9.06
WR	Cole Beasley	23.00	Cole Beasley	23.00
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	13.10	Ja'Marr Chase	13.10
RB	James Conner	14.20	James Conner	14.20
RB	James Robinson	4.90	James Robinson	4.90
TE	Hunter Henry	4.30	Hunter Henry	4.30
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	20.30	Brandin Cooks	20.30
W/R/T	Tony Pollard	4.14	Deonte Harty	10.32
K	Matt Prater	3.00	Matt Prater	3.00
DEF	Bengals	6.18	Bengals	6.18

Carried by One Guy: Cole Beasley, 23.00 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.60 points left. Optimal 93.04 vs. actual 86.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	15.66	Aaron Rodgers	15.66
WR	Terry McLaurin	6.50	Jerry Jeudy	7.90
WR	CeeDee Lamb	19.14	CeeDee Lamb	19.14
RB	Dalvin Cook	7.80	Dalvin Cook	7.80
RB	Myles Gaskin	8.50	Myles Gaskin	8.50
TE	Mike Gesicki	9.80	Mike Gesicki	9.80
W/R/T	Alex Collins	4.40	Sony Michel	7.60
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	7.90	D'Ernest Johnson	9.90
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	1.74	Cardinals	1.74

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 19.14 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cole Beasley scored 23.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2021

Fischer

111.48

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

148.37

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.34 points left. Optimal 132.82 vs. actual 111.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	20.26	Joe Burrow	20.26
WR	Cooper Kupp	26.66	Cooper Kupp	26.66
WR	Courtland Sutton	6.00	Courtland Sutton	6.00
RB	Joe Mixon	25.10	Joe Mixon	25.10
RB	Samaje Perine	3.60	Nyheim Miller-Hines	6.94
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.30	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.30
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	6.50	Sterling Shepard	6.50
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	0.00	Boston Scott	18.00
K	Evan McPherson	6.00	Evan McPherson	6.00
DEF	Patriots	14.06	Patriots	14.06

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 26.66 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.30 points left. Optimal 149.67 vs. actual 148.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	18.34	Carson Wentz	18.34
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	30.00	Chris Godwin Jr.	30.00
WR	DeVonta Smith	2.50	Jakobi Meyers	9.60
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	22.30	Darrell Henderson Jr.	22.30
RB	Najee Harris	21.00	Najee Harris	21.00
TE	Zach Ertz	8.20	Zach Ertz	8.20
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	9.60	Salvon Ahmed	3.80
W/R/T	Chuba Hubbard	14.10	Chuba Hubbard	14.10
K	Matthew Wright	1.00	Matthew Wright	1.00
DEF	Eagles	21.33	Eagles	21.33

Carried by One Guy: Chris Godwin Jr., 30.00 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2021

Niz

120.96

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Nevans

137.92

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.90 points left. Optimal 121.86 vs. actual 120.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	13.16	Kirk Cousins	13.16
WR	Adam Thielen	19.80	Adam Thielen	19.80
WR	Allen Robinson	5.10	Marquez Callaway	6.00
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	18.70	Cordarrelle Patterson	18.70
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	24.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	24.00
TE	C.J. Uzomah	7.30	C.J. Uzomah	7.30
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	10.00	Jarvis Landry	10.00
W/R/T	Van Jefferson	11.80	Van Jefferson	11.80
K	Graham Gano	4.00	Graham Gano	4.00
DEF	Rams	7.10	Rams	7.10

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 24.00 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: A.J. Brown scored 33.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.23 points left. Optimal 158.15 vs. actual 137.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	29.46	Josh Allen	29.46
WR	Tyler Boyd	19.74	Tyler Boyd	19.74
WR	A.J. Brown	33.50	A.J. Brown	33.50
RB	Melvin Gordon III	19.20	Melvin Gordon III	19.20
RB	Nick Chubb	7.90	Nick Chubb	7.90
TE	Robert Tonyan	7.90	Robert Tonyan	7.90
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	0.00	Evan Engram	10.50
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	3.60	Elijah Moore	13.10
K	Ryan Succop	3.00	Ryan Succop	3.00
DEF	Bills	13.62	Seahawks	13.85

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 33.50 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2021

Demich

132.45

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev

110.95

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.06 points left. Optimal 136.51 vs. actual 132.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	15.20	Tua Tagovailoa	15.20
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	25.10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	25.10
WR	Tee Higgins	13.70	Tee Higgins	13.70
RB	Michael Carter	32.20	Michael Carter	32.20
RB	Elijah Mitchell	21.70	Elijah Mitchell	21.70
TE	Travis Kelce	4.70	Travis Kelce	4.70
W/R/T	K.J. Osborn	3.14	Mark Ingram II	7.20
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	7.60	Amon-Ra St. Brown	7.60
K	Jason Sanders	5.00	Jason Sanders	5.00
DEF	Browns	4.11	Browns	4.11

Carried by One Guy: Michael Carter, 32.20 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.88 points left. Optimal 114.83 vs. actual 110.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	26.20	Matthew Stafford	26.20
WR	Tyler Lockett	28.20	Tyler Lockett	28.20
WR	Justin Jefferson	4.10	Justin Jefferson	4.10
RB	Austin Ekeler	24.40	Austin Ekeler	24.40
RB	Kenny Gainwell	2.70	Kenny Gainwell	2.70
TE	Ricky Seals-Jones	3.20	Ricky Seals-Jones	3.20
W/R/T	Kalif Raymond	0.22	Kadarius Toney	7.36
W/R/T	Kadarius Toney	7.36	Rhamondre Stevenson	4.10
K	Greg Zuerlein	8.00	Greg Zuerlein	8.00
DEF	49ers	6.57	49ers	6.57

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 28.20 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Michael Carter scored 32.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2021

Martin

107.66

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Horgan

94.94

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.66 points left. Optimal 124.32 vs. actual 107.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	14.00	Patrick Mahomes	14.00
WR	Robert Woods	20.70	Robert Woods	20.70
WR	Christian Kirk	8.60	Christian Kirk	8.60
RB	Derrick Henry	6.80	Damien Harris	14.00
RB	Damien Harris	14.00	Zack Moss	11.80
TE	Dallas Goedert	13.20	Dallas Goedert	13.20
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	4.10	DeVante Parker	16.50
W/R/T	Zack Moss	11.80	Brandon Aiyuk	11.06
K	Younghoe Koo	10.00	Younghoe Koo	10.00
DEF	Falcons	4.46	Falcons	4.46

Carried by One Guy: Robert Woods, 20.70 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.20 points left. Optimal 123.14 vs. actual 94.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	16.08	Daniel Jones	16.08
WR	Stefon Diggs	15.00	Amari Cooper	28.20
WR	Robbie Chosen	0.00	Stefon Diggs	15.00
RB	Devontae Booker	17.50	Devontae Booker	17.50
RB	Darrel Williams	17.00	Darrel Williams	17.00
TE	Dalton Schultz	3.10	Dalton Schultz	3.10
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	11.30	Mecole Hardman Jr.	11.30
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	7.40	Jaylen Waddle	7.40
K	Harrison Butker	8.00	Harrison Butker	8.00
DEF	Bears	-0.44	Bears	-0.44

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Devontae Booker, 17.50 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Robert Woods scored 20.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–3	4.923	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Martin	4–4	2.846	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Miller	4–4	4.308	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Demich	7–1	4.538	+2.0	+0.154	2 / 0
Krajcik	7–1	5.385	+1.5	+0.115	2 / 1
Big Hut	6–2	5.077	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Niz	2–6	3.000	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Josh	2–6	3.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	6–2	4.692	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Fischer	5–3	5.154	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	3–5	3.154	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Joe Shore	2–6	3.769	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	2–6	3.462	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	1–7	2.462	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2021 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8