2021 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 19 – 25, 2021

j-mart

147.22

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Josh

172.73

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 147.22 vs. actual 147.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	19.40	Ryan Tannehill	19.40
WR	Jamison Crowder	7.40	Jamison Crowder	7.40
WR	DJ Moore	13.30	DJ Moore	13.30
RB	Leonard Fournette	17.00	Leonard Fournette	17.00
RB	Alvin Kamara	35.90	Alvin Kamara	35.90
TE	Gerald Everett	5.30	Gerald Everett	5.30
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	12.90	Devonta Freeman	12.90
W/R/T	Khalil Herbert	20.30	Khalil Herbert	20.30
K	Matt Gay	9.00	Matt Gay	9.00
DEF	Broncos	6.72	Broncos	6.72

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 35.90 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Terry McLaurin scored 27.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 172.73 vs. actual 172.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	24.66	Aaron Rodgers	24.66
WR	Corey Davis	14.70	Corey Davis	14.70
WR	Terry McLaurin	27.20	Terry McLaurin	27.20
RB	Alex Collins	5.40	Alex Collins	5.40
RB	D'Ernest Johnson	26.80	D'Ernest Johnson	26.80
TE	Mike Gesicki	21.50	Mike Gesicki	21.50
W/R/T	Russell Gage Jr.	16.70	Russell Gage Jr.	16.70
W/R/T	Myles Gaskin	18.28	Myles Gaskin	18.28
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Cardinals	11.49	Cardinals	11.49

Carried by One Guy: Terry McLaurin, 27.20 points (15.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 19 – 25, 2021

Martin

113.65

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Niz

71.78

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.60 points left. Optimal 125.25 vs. actual 113.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	7.74	Patrick Mahomes	7.74
WR	Robert Woods	15.00	Robert Woods	15.00
WR	Christian Kirk	15.00	Christian Kirk	15.00
RB	Derrick Henry	16.40	Derrick Henry	16.40
RB	Damien Harris	27.30	Damien Harris	27.30
TE	Dallas Goedert	12.00	Dallas Goedert	12.00
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	2.06	Jalen Reagor	11.60
W/R/T	Donovan Peoples-Jones	0.00	Brandon Aiyuk	2.06
K	Younghoe Koo	12.00	Younghoe Koo	12.00
DEF	Raiders	6.15	Raiders	6.15

Carried by One Guy: Damien Harris, 27.30 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.40 points left. Optimal 90.18 vs. actual 71.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	2.48	Sam Darnold	2.48
WR	Allen Robinson	3.60	Jarvis Landry	8.70
WR	Marquez Callaway	6.24	Marquez Callaway	6.24
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	14.96	Cordarrelle Patterson	14.96
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	8.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	8.90
TE	Mark Andrews	7.80	Mark Andrews	7.80
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	0.00	Nelson Agholor	13.10
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	13.10	Bryan Edwards	13.30
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Rams	8.70	Rams	8.70

Carried by One Guy: Cordarrelle Patterson, 14.96 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 19 – 25, 2021

Miller

161.14

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Fischer

161.85

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.20 points left. Optimal 168.34 vs. actual 161.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	23.54	Jalen Hurts	23.54
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	22.50	Hunter Renfrow	13.10
WR	Darnell Mooney	5.90	Michael Pittman Jr.	22.50
RB	Antonio Gibson	7.60	Antonio Gibson	7.60
RB	Javonte Williams	17.20	Javonte Williams	17.20
TE	T.J. Hockenson	10.80	T.J. Hockenson	10.80
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	17.60	DK Metcalf	17.60
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	28.40	D'Andre Swift	28.40
K	Jason Myers	6.00	Jason Myers	6.00
DEF	Buccaneers	21.60	Buccaneers	21.60

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 28.40 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cooper Kupp scored 39.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.80 points left. Optimal 166.65 vs. actual 161.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	28.64	Joe Burrow	28.64
WR	Davante Adams	19.60	Davante Adams	19.60
WR	Courtland Sutton	11.80	Courtland Sutton	11.80
RB	Joe Mixon	11.90	Joe Mixon	11.90
RB	Rashaad Penny	0.90	Jamaal Williams	5.70
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	25.30	Kyle Pitts Sr.	25.30
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	39.60	Cooper Kupp	39.60
W/R/T	Rondale Moore	4.24	Rondale Moore	4.24
K	Daniel Carlson	7.00	Daniel Carlson	7.00
DEF	Patriots	12.87	Patriots	12.87

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 39.60 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 19 – 25, 2021

Krajcik

140.40

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

119.96

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 140.40 vs. actual 140.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	21.44	Kyler Murray	21.44
WR	Hollywood Brown	19.00	Hollywood Brown	19.00
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	36.10	Ja'Marr Chase	36.10
RB	James Conner	12.40	James Conner	12.40
RB	DeeJay Dallas	1.06	DeeJay Dallas	1.06
TE	Hunter Henry	10.30	Hunter Henry	10.30
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	7.10	Brandin Cooks	7.10
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	11.00	Rashod Bateman	11.00
K	Matt Prater	7.00	Matt Prater	7.00
DEF	Packers	15.00	Packers	15.00

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 36.10 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 119.96 vs. actual 119.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Zach Wilson	2.04	Zach Wilson	2.04
WR	Tyler Boyd	7.90	Tyler Boyd	7.90
WR	A.J. Brown	29.30	A.J. Brown	29.30
RB	Melvin Gordon III	11.20	Melvin Gordon III	11.20
RB	Kenyan Drake	16.90	Kenyan Drake	16.90
TE	Robert Tonyan	16.30	Robert Tonyan	16.30
W/R/T	Evan Engram	10.40	Evan Engram	10.40
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	10.20	Elijah Moore	10.20
K	Ryan Succop	7.00	Ryan Succop	7.00
DEF	Seahawks	8.72	Seahawks	8.72

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 29.30 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ja'Marr Chase scored 36.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 19 – 25, 2021

Demich

151.33

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

109.01

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 151.33 vs. actual 151.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	26.54	Tua Tagovailoa	26.54
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	24.20	Deebo Samuel Sr.	24.20
WR	Tee Higgins	13.20	Tee Higgins	13.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	15.80	Josh Jacobs	15.80
RB	Elijah Mitchell	18.70	Elijah Mitchell	18.70
TE	Travis Kelce	13.50	Travis Kelce	13.50
W/R/T	Calvin Ridley	12.60	Calvin Ridley	12.60
W/R/T	Michael Carter	16.40	Michael Carter	16.40
K	Jason Sanders	4.00	Jason Sanders	4.00
DEF	Browns	6.39	Browns	6.39

Carried by One Guy: Tua Tagovailoa, 26.54 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.80 points left. Optimal 114.81 vs. actual 109.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	16.88	Jameis Winston	16.88
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	27.10	Chris Godwin Jr.	27.10
WR	Tim Patrick	3.60	Jakobi Meyers	9.40
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	9.40	Darrell Henderson Jr.	9.40
RB	Chuba Hubbard	9.60	Chuba Hubbard	9.60
TE	Zach Ertz	16.00	Zach Ertz	16.00
W/R/T	Julio Jones	5.80	Julio Jones	5.80
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	11.10	DeVonta Smith	11.10
K	Chase McLaughlin	7.00	Chase McLaughlin	7.00
DEF	Panthers	2.53	Panthers	2.53

Carried by One Guy: Chris Godwin Jr., 27.10 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 19 – 25, 2021

Big Hut

106.02

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Kev

85.22

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.20 points left. Optimal 110.22 vs. actual 106.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	21.02	Derek Carr	21.02
WR	Tyreek Hill	12.70	Tyreek Hill	12.70
WR	Henry Ruggs III	7.10	Henry Ruggs III	7.10
RB	Miles Sanders	3.70	Miles Sanders	3.70
RB	Jonathan Taylor	20.00	Jonathan Taylor	20.00
TE	Noah Fant	8.90	Noah Fant	8.90
W/R/T	Mike Davis	1.00	Randall Cobb	5.20
W/R/T	J.D. McKissic	9.60	J.D. McKissic	9.60
K	Nick Folk	13.00	Nick Folk	13.00
DEF	Commanders	9.00	Commanders	9.00

Carried by One Guy: Derek Carr, 21.02 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 85.22 vs. actual 85.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	29.16	Matthew Stafford	29.16
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	4.30	Odell Beckham Jr.	4.30
WR	Tyler Lockett	3.20	Tyler Lockett	3.20
RB	Kenny Gainwell	14.10	Kenny Gainwell	14.10
RB	Demetric Felton	6.66	Demetric Felton	6.66
TE	Ricky Seals-Jones	11.10	Ricky Seals-Jones	11.10
W/R/T	John Ross	4.70	John Ross	4.70
W/R/T	Tyler Johnson	3.60	Tyler Johnson	3.60
K	Zane Gonzalez	4.00	Zane Gonzalez	4.00
DEF	49ers	4.40	49ers	4.40

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 29.16 points (34.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Derek Carr scored 21.02; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 19 – 25, 2021

Adam

121.56

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

105.33

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.10 points left. Optimal 122.66 vs. actual 121.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	24.44	Tom Brady	24.44
WR	Mike Evans	31.60	Mike Evans	31.60
WR	Kendrick Bourne	15.80	Kendrick Bourne	15.80
RB	Le'Veon Bell	1.40	Giovani Bernard	2.50
RB	Chase Edmonds	10.00	Chase Edmonds	10.00
TE	Tyler Higbee	9.60	Tyler Higbee	9.60
W/R/T	A.J. Green	9.60	A.J. Green	9.60
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	18.30	DeAndre Hopkins	18.30
K	Brandon McManus	2.00	Brandon McManus	2.00
DEF	Ravens	-1.18	Ravens	-1.18

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 31.60 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.40 points left. Optimal 112.73 vs. actual 105.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	23.08	Lamar Jackson	23.08
WR	Mecole Hardman Jr.	4.80	Mecole Hardman Jr.	4.80
WR	Jaylen Waddle	15.30	Jaylen Waddle	15.30
RB	Devontae Booker	14.60	Devontae Booker	14.60
RB	Darrel Williams	8.00	Darrel Williams	8.00
TE	O.J. Howard	1.90	Cole Kmet	9.30
W/R/T	Brandon Bolden	19.90	Brandon Bolden	19.90
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	4.40	Robbie Chosen	4.40
K	Harrison Butker	4.00	Harrison Butker	4.00
DEF	Saints	9.35	Saints	9.35

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 23.08 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mike Evans scored 31.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–2	4.462	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Martin	3–4	2.615	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Miller	4–3	3.692	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Demich	6–1	3.769	+2.0	+0.154	2 / 0
Krajcik	6–1	5.231	-3.0	-0.231	1 / 1
Big Hut	5–2	4.231	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Niz	2–5	2.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	2–5	3.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	5–2	4.000	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Fischer	5–2	4.769	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	2–5	2.231	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Joe Shore	1–6	2.769	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	2–5	3.154	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	1–6	2.385	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2021 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7