2021 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 12 – 18, 2021

j-mart

116.60

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Nevans

114.05

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 125.40 vs. actual 116.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	12.94	Ryan Tannehill	12.94
WR	Keenan Allen	10.00	Keenan Allen	10.00
WR	DJ Moore	10.90	DJ Moore	10.90
RB	Leonard Fournette	30.70	Leonard Fournette	30.70
RB	Kareem Hunt	10.80	Kareem Hunt	10.80
TE	Darren Waller	10.90	Darren Waller	10.90
W/R/T	Jerick McKinnon	2.50	Devonta Freeman	11.30
W/R/T	Khalil Herbert	19.20	Khalil Herbert	19.20
K	Matt Gay	8.00	Matt Gay	8.00
DEF	Broncos	0.66	Broncos	0.66

Carried by One Guy: Leonard Fournette, 30.70 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.92 points left. Optimal 121.97 vs. actual 114.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	30.72	Josh Allen	30.72
WR	Tyler Boyd	1.70	Tyler Boyd	1.70
WR	A.J. Brown	16.10	A.J. Brown	16.10
RB	Melvin Gordon III	10.30	Melvin Gordon III	10.30
RB	Kenyan Drake	21.30	Kenyan Drake	21.30
TE	Robert Tonyan	3.00	Robert Tonyan	3.00
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	14.10	Emmanuel Sanders	14.10
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	12.00	T.Y. Hilton	12.00
K	Ryan Succop	4.00	Ryan Succop	4.00
DEF	Bills	0.83	Vikings	8.75

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 30.72 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Leonard Fournette scored 30.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 12 – 18, 2021

Martin

119.53

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

150.43

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.30 points left. Optimal 157.83 vs. actual 119.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	24.98	Patrick Mahomes	24.98
WR	Robert Woods	11.10	Robert Woods	11.10
WR	Laviska Shenault Jr.	11.40	Laviska Shenault Jr.	11.40
RB	Derrick Henry	37.60	Derrick Henry	37.60
RB	Zack Moss	5.90	Zack Moss	5.90
TE	Dawson Knox	7.50	Dawson Knox	7.50
W/R/T	Rashard Higgins	0.00	Christian Kirk	18.50
W/R/T	Jalen Reagor	0.00	Damien Harris	19.80
K	Greg Joseph	8.00	Greg Joseph	8.00
DEF	Raiders	13.05	Raiders	13.05

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 37.60 points (31.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.60 points left. Optimal 151.03 vs. actual 150.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	25.76	Kyler Murray	25.76
WR	Hollywood Brown	7.50	Cole Beasley	21.80
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	13.70	Ja'Marr Chase	13.70
RB	Tony Pollard	10.78	Tony Pollard	10.78
RB	James Robinson	19.10	James Robinson	19.10
TE	Hunter Henry	10.50	Hunter Henry	10.50
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	21.80	Brandin Cooks	17.90
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	17.90	James Conner	8.10
K	Matt Prater	15.00	Matt Prater	15.00
DEF	Packers	8.39	Packers	8.39

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 25.76 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 12 – 18, 2021

Miller

111.01

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Demich

126.49

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.80 points left. Optimal 125.81 vs. actual 111.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	25.00	Jalen Hurts	25.00
WR	DK Metcalf	11.80	DK Metcalf	11.80
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	5.80	Hunter Renfrow	6.70
RB	D'Andre Swift	17.70	D'Andre Swift	17.70
RB	Antonio Gibson	4.40	Javonte Williams	9.80
TE	T.J. Hockenson	15.40	T.J. Hockenson	15.40
W/R/T	AJ Dillon	5.90	Bryan Edwards	8.70
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	9.80	Darnell Mooney	15.50
K	Tyler Bass	11.00	Tyler Bass	11.00
DEF	Buccaneers	4.21	Buccaneers	4.21

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 25.00 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dak Prescott scored 28.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 126.49 vs. actual 126.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	28.80	Dak Prescott	28.80
WR	Tee Higgins	7.40	Tee Higgins	7.40
WR	K.J. Osborn	19.80	K.J. Osborn	19.80
RB	Mark Ingram II	10.10	Mark Ingram II	10.10
RB	Josh Jacobs	15.20	Josh Jacobs	15.20
TE	Travis Kelce	17.90	Travis Kelce	17.90
W/R/T	DeAndre Carter	1.14	DeAndre Carter	1.14
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	9.60	Amon-Ra St. Brown	9.60
K	Chris Boswell	12.00	Chris Boswell	12.00
DEF	Jaguars	4.55	Jaguars	4.55

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 28.80 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 12 – 18, 2021

Big Hut

135.37

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Josh

167.11

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.30 points left. Optimal 150.67 vs. actual 135.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	11.00	Justin Herbert	11.00
WR	Tyreek Hill	22.60	Tyreek Hill	22.60
WR	Mike Williams	4.70	Mike Williams	4.70
RB	Miles Sanders	8.60	Miles Sanders	8.60
RB	Jonathan Taylor	30.80	Jonathan Taylor	30.80
TE	Noah Fant	24.70	Noah Fant	24.70
W/R/T	Henry Ruggs III	18.70	J.D. McKissic	19.00
W/R/T	Chase Claypool	3.70	Henry Ruggs III	18.70
K	Nick Folk	3.00	Nick Folk	3.00
DEF	Commanders	7.57	Commanders	7.57

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 30.80 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: CeeDee Lamb scored 38.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.30 points left. Optimal 177.41 vs. actual 167.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	23.70	Aaron Rodgers	23.70
WR	Terry McLaurin	6.80	Terry McLaurin	6.80
WR	CeeDee Lamb	38.10	CeeDee Lamb	38.10
RB	Dalvin Cook	24.30	Alex Collins	18.80
RB	Myles Gaskin	3.40	Dalvin Cook	24.30
TE	Mike Gesicki	21.50	Mike Gesicki	21.50
W/R/T	Alex Collins	18.80	Evan Engram	5.40
W/R/T	Sony Michel	4.20	Jared Cook	12.50
K	Greg Zuerlein	13.00	Greg Zuerlein	13.00
DEF	Cardinals	13.31	Cardinals	13.31

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 38.10 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 12 – 18, 2021

Niz

153.92

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam

126.90

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 153.92 vs. actual 153.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	30.52	Kirk Cousins	30.52
WR	Adam Thielen	31.80	Adam Thielen	31.80
WR	Allen Robinson	9.30	Allen Robinson	9.30
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	21.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	21.00
RB	Devin Singletary	9.30	Devin Singletary	9.30
TE	Mark Andrews	17.80	Mark Andrews	17.80
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	1.60	Nelson Agholor	3.80
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	3.80	DeSean Jackson	1.60
K	Justin Tucker	12.00	Justin Tucker	12.00
DEF	Rams	16.80	Rams	16.80

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 31.80 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.70 points left. Optimal 147.60 vs. actual 126.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	17.98	Tom Brady	17.98
WR	Mike Evans	4.70	A.J. Green	18.90
WR	Diontae Johnson	18.60	Diontae Johnson	18.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	18.90	Latavius Murray	13.60
RB	Chase Edmonds	8.00	Ezekiel Elliott	18.90
TE	Tyler Higbee	8.60	Tyler Higbee	8.60
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	20.50	DeAndre Hopkins	20.50
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	13.60	Kendrick Bourne	14.50
K	Brandon McManus	6.00	Brandon McManus	6.00
DEF	Steelers	10.02	Steelers	10.02

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 20.50 points (16.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adam Thielen scored 31.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 12 – 18, 2021

Fischer

161.98

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

146.94

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.80 points left. Optimal 175.78 vs. actual 161.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	22.84	Joe Burrow	22.84
WR	Davante Adams	12.90	Davante Adams	12.90
WR	Cooper Kupp	36.16	Cooper Kupp	36.16
RB	Joe Mixon	26.30	Joe Mixon	26.30
RB	Jamaal Williams	1.90	Chris Evans	15.70
TE	David Njoku	1.60	David Njoku	1.60
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	17.60	Sterling Shepard	17.60
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	23.40	Courtland Sutton	23.40
K	Daniel Carlson	12.00	Daniel Carlson	12.00
DEF	Bengals	7.28	Bengals	7.28

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 36.16 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.18 points left. Optimal 147.12 vs. actual 146.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	11.78	Lamar Jackson	11.78
WR	Amari Cooper	10.50	Amari Cooper	10.50
WR	Stefon Diggs	23.90	Stefon Diggs	23.90
RB	Devontae Booker	10.90	Devontae Booker	10.90
RB	Darrel Williams	23.90	Darrel Williams	23.90
TE	Dalton Schultz	12.90	Dalton Schultz	12.90
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	9.92	Robbie Chosen	10.10
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	29.76	Jaylen Waddle	29.76
K	Harrison Butker	9.00	Harrison Butker	9.00
DEF	Dolphins	4.38	Dolphins	4.38

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Waddle, 29.76 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cooper Kupp scored 36.16; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 12 – 18, 2021

Joe Shore

120.77

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Kev

125.98

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.84 points left. Optimal 140.61 vs. actual 120.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Taylor Heinicke	9.28	Taylor Heinicke	9.28
WR	Tyler Lockett	5.56	Tim Patrick	13.20
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	9.30	Jakobi Meyers	11.40
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	24.70	Darrell Henderson Jr.	24.70
RB	Najee Harris	24.70	Najee Harris	24.70
TE	Zach Ertz	12.90	Zach Ertz	12.90
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	5.10	Rhamondre Stevenson	15.20
W/R/T	Chuba Hubbard	13.50	Chuba Hubbard	13.50
K	Chase McLaughlin	2.00	Chase McLaughlin	2.00
DEF	Cowboys	13.73	Cowboys	13.73

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Darrell Henderson Jr., 24.70 points (20.5% of positive starter points); Najee Harris, 24.70 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matthew Stafford scored 25.24; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.30 points left. Optimal 132.28 vs. actual 125.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	25.24	Matthew Stafford	25.24
WR	Antonio Brown	24.30	Antonio Brown	24.30
WR	Justin Jefferson	14.00	Justin Jefferson	14.00
RB	Austin Ekeler	9.50	Austin Ekeler	9.50
RB	Demetric Felton	3.98	Demetric Felton	3.98
TE	Ricky Seals-Jones	15.80	Ricky Seals-Jones	15.80
W/R/T	Julio Jones	8.90	Julio Jones	8.90
W/R/T	Kadarius Toney	6.60	Odell Beckham Jr.	12.90
K	Graham Gano	2.00	Graham Gano	2.00
DEF	Colts	15.66	Colts	15.66

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 25.24 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–1	3.769	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Martin	2–4	2.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	4–2	2.846	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Demich	5–1	3.000	+2.0	+0.154	2 / 0
Krajcik	5–1	4.615	-3.0	-0.231	1 / 1
Big Hut	4–2	4.000	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Niz	2–4	2.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–5	2.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	4–2	3.462	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Fischer	4–2	3.846	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	2–4	1.769	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Joe Shore	1–5	2.462	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	2–4	3.077	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	1–5	2.231	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1

2021 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Kev lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6