2021 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 5 – 11, 2021

j-mart

141.78

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin

140.02

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 141.78 vs. actual 141.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	13.98	Ryan Tannehill	13.98
WR	Keenan Allen	13.50	Keenan Allen	13.50
WR	DJ Moore	9.06	DJ Moore	9.06
RB	Alvin Kamara	29.78	Alvin Kamara	29.78
RB	Kareem Hunt	25.90	Kareem Hunt	25.90
TE	Darren Waller	8.50	Darren Waller	8.50
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	8.40	Jamison Crowder	8.40
W/R/T	Leonard Fournette	21.00	Leonard Fournette	21.00
K	Matt Gay	8.00	Matt Gay	8.00
DEF	Broncos	3.66	Broncos	3.66

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 29.78 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.90 points left. Optimal 157.92 vs. actual 140.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	18.98	Patrick Mahomes	18.98
WR	Robert Woods	29.00	Robert Woods	29.00
WR	Laviska Shenault Jr.	6.80	Laviska Shenault Jr.	6.80
RB	Derrick Henry	33.00	Derrick Henry	33.00
RB	Damien Harris	9.80	Damien Harris	9.80
TE	Dallas Goedert	4.80	Dawson Knox	22.70
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	10.00	Christian Kirk	10.00
W/R/T	Zack Moss	12.20	Zack Moss	12.20
K	Younghoe Koo	11.00	Younghoe Koo	11.00
DEF	Raiders	4.44	Raiders	4.44

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 33.00 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Alvin Kamara scored 29.78; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 5 – 11, 2021

Krajcik

154.61

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Adam

162.59

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.64 points left. Optimal 173.25 vs. actual 154.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	13.66	Kyler Murray	13.66
WR	Hollywood Brown	35.50	Hollywood Brown	35.50
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	29.90	Ja'Marr Chase	29.90
RB	Tony Pollard	14.30	Tony Pollard	14.30
RB	James Robinson	23.70	James Robinson	23.70
TE	Hunter Henry	19.50	Hunter Henry	19.50
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	1.50	James Conner	10.70
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	5.30	Deonte Harty	14.74
K	Matt Prater	4.00	Matt Prater	4.00
DEF	Packers	7.25	Packers	7.25

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Hollywood Brown, 35.50 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 39.74; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.60 points left. Optimal 175.19 vs. actual 162.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	39.74	Tom Brady	39.74
WR	Mike Evans	31.30	Mike Evans	31.30
WR	Diontae Johnson	15.20	Diontae Johnson	15.20
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	27.20	Giovani Bernard	11.50
RB	Chase Edmonds	4.40	Ezekiel Elliott	27.20
TE	Tyler Higbee	9.40	Tyler Higbee	9.40
W/R/T	A.J. Green	2.30	DeAndre Hopkins	20.70
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	20.70	Zach Pascal	7.80
K	Brandon McManus	6.00	Brandon McManus	6.00
DEF	Steelers	6.35	Steelers	6.35

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 39.74 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 5 – 11, 2021

Niz

121.50

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

152.66

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.02 points left. Optimal 149.52 vs. actual 121.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	9.08	Kirk Cousins	13.40
WR	Adam Thielen	6.00	Allen Robinson	7.20
WR	Allen Robinson	7.20	Nelson Agholor	6.20
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	18.98	Cordarrelle Patterson	18.98
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.90
TE	Mark Andrews	43.70	Mark Andrews	43.70
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	5.50	Marquez Callaway	24.50
W/R/T	Devin Singletary	3.30	DeSean Jackson	7.80
K	Justin Tucker	2.00	Justin Tucker	2.00
DEF	Rams	8.84	Rams	8.84

Carried by One Guy: Mark Andrews, 43.70 points (36.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Davante Adams scored 39.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.14 points left. Optimal 182.80 vs. actual 152.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	18.34	Joe Burrow	18.34
WR	Davante Adams	39.60	Davante Adams	39.60
WR	Cooper Kupp	16.44	Cooper Kupp	16.44
RB	Joe Mixon	10.50	Joe Mixon	10.50
RB	Trey Sermon	0.70	Samaje Perine	18.30
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	28.90	Kyle Pitts Sr.	28.90
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	27.00	Courtland Sutton	27.00
W/R/T	Nyheim Miller-Hines	2.40	Rondale Moore	14.94
K	Daniel Carlson	3.00	Daniel Carlson	3.00
DEF	Patriots	5.78	Patriots	5.78

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 39.60 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 5 – 11, 2021

Josh

125.90

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

126.90

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.92 points left. Optimal 160.82 vs. actual 125.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	21.76	Aaron Rodgers	21.76
WR	Terry McLaurin	8.60	Terry McLaurin	8.60
WR	CeeDee Lamb	19.14	CeeDee Lamb	19.14
RB	Alex Collins	9.20	Alex Collins	9.20
RB	Alexander Mattison	28.30	Alexander Mattison	28.30
TE	Jared Cook	3.90	Mike Gesicki	8.30
W/R/T	Corey Davis	8.50	Sony Michel	11.50
W/R/T	Olamide Zaccheaus	4.38	Myles Gaskin	31.90
K	Greg Zuerlein	14.00	Greg Zuerlein	14.00
DEF	Cardinals	8.12	Cardinals	8.12

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Alexander Mattison, 28.30 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 38.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.91 points left. Optimal 138.81 vs. actual 126.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	38.50	Josh Allen	38.50
WR	Tyler Boyd	6.40	Tyler Boyd	6.40
WR	A.J. Brown	6.80	A.J. Brown	6.80
RB	Melvin Gordon III	6.30	Melvin Gordon III	6.30
RB	Nick Chubb	26.00	Nick Chubb	26.00
TE	Robert Tonyan	1.80	Robert Tonyan	1.80
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	20.40	Emmanuel Sanders	20.40
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	0.00	Chester Rogers	4.50
K	Ryan Succop	10.00	Ryan Succop	10.00
DEF	Vikings	10.70	Bills	18.11

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 38.50 points (30.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 5 – 11, 2021

Big Hut

178.80

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

117.75

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.00 points left. Optimal 204.80 vs. actual 178.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	44.82	Justin Herbert	44.82
WR	Tyreek Hill	14.80	Tyreek Hill	14.80
WR	Kenny Golladay	0.00	Chase Claypool	26.00
RB	Miles Sanders	10.10	Miles Sanders	10.10
RB	Jonathan Taylor	33.90	Jonathan Taylor	33.90
TE	Noah Fant	5.00	Noah Fant	5.00
W/R/T	Mike Davis	12.10	Mike Davis	12.10
W/R/T	Mike Williams	38.50	Mike Williams	38.50
K	Nick Folk	15.00	Nick Folk	15.00
DEF	Commanders	4.58	Commanders	4.58

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 44.82 points (25.1% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.30 points left. Optimal 145.05 vs. actual 117.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trey Lance	14.58	Trey Lance	14.58
WR	Tyler Lockett	10.70	Chris Godwin Jr.	14.00
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	14.00	Tim Patrick	15.90
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	16.90	Darrell Henderson Jr.	16.90
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3.40	Chuba Hubbard	20.40
TE	Cameron Brate	2.20	Cameron Brate	2.20
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	9.60	DeVonta Smith	14.70
W/R/T	Najee Harris	24.20	Najee Harris	24.20
K	Chase McLaughlin	10.00	Chase McLaughlin	10.00
DEF	Cowboys	12.17	Cowboys	12.17

Carried by One Guy: Najee Harris, 24.20 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 5 – 11, 2021

Miller

158.32

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev

141.71

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.40 points left. Optimal 169.72 vs. actual 158.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	22.92	Jalen Hurts	22.92
WR	DK Metcalf	26.80	DK Metcalf	26.80
WR	Darnell Mooney	6.50	Michael Pittman Jr.	20.90
RB	D'Andre Swift	22.40	D'Andre Swift	22.40
RB	Antonio Gibson	21.20	Antonio Gibson	21.20
TE	T.J. Hockenson	4.20	T.J. Hockenson	4.20
W/R/T	Damien Williams	16.40	Damien Williams	16.40
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	20.90	AJ Dillon	17.90
K	Tyler Bass	8.00	Tyler Bass	8.00
DEF	Buccaneers	9.00	Buccaneers	9.00

Carried by One Guy: DK Metcalf, 26.80 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.10 points left. Optimal 169.81 vs. actual 141.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	18.50	Matthew Stafford	18.50
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	3.50	Justin Jefferson	21.40
WR	Justin Jefferson	21.40	Kadarius Toney	31.60
RB	Austin Ekeler	32.90	Austin Ekeler	32.90
RB	Kenny Gainwell	3.40	Kenny Gainwell	3.40
TE	Tyler Conklin	4.50	Tyler Conklin	4.50
W/R/T	Antonio Brown	33.40	Antonio Brown	33.40
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	4.00	Odell Beckham Jr.	4.00
K	Graham Gano	12.00	Graham Gano	12.00
DEF	Ravens	8.11	Ravens	8.11

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 33.40 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DK Metcalf scored 26.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 5 – 11, 2021

Demich

131.78

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Horgan

119.07

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.10 points left. Optimal 140.88 vs. actual 131.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	22.68	Dak Prescott	22.68
WR	Tee Higgins	10.20	Tee Higgins	10.20
WR	K.J. Osborn	4.40	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.50
RB	Josh Jacobs	16.70	Josh Jacobs	16.70
RB	Elijah Mitchell	8.20	Elijah Mitchell	8.20
TE	Travis Kelce	17.70	Travis Kelce	17.70
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	16.10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	16.10
W/R/T	Michael Carter	14.80	Michael Carter	14.80
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	7.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	7.00
DEF	Titans	14.00	Titans	14.00

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 22.68 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.20 points left. Optimal 137.27 vs. actual 119.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	43.88	Lamar Jackson	43.88
WR	Robbie Chosen	5.00	Mecole Hardman Jr.	16.60
WR	Jaylen Waddle	5.30	Jaylen Waddle	5.30
RB	Brandon Bolden	7.10	Brandon Bolden	7.10
RB	Saquon Barkley	0.90	Darrel Williams	7.50
TE	Dalton Schultz	13.90	Dalton Schultz	13.90
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	15.00	Amari Cooper	15.00
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	8.90	Stefon Diggs	8.90
K	Harrison Butker	10.00	Harrison Butker	10.00
DEF	Panthers	9.09	Panthers	9.09

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 43.88 points (36.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dak Prescott scored 22.68; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–1	3.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	2–3	2.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	4–1	2.846	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Demich	4–1	2.538	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Krajcik	4–1	3.846	-3.0	-0.231	1 / 1
Big Hut	4–1	3.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–4	1.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	0–5	1.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	4–1	2.923	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Fischer	3–2	2.923	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	2–3	1.692	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Joe Shore	1–4	2.154	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	1–4	2.692	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Horgan	1–4	1.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2021 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5