2021 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2021

j-mart

139.00

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam

121.29

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.40 points left. Optimal 162.40 vs. actual 139.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	18.82	Ryan Tannehill	18.82
WR	Keenan Allen	10.60	Jamison Crowder	19.10
WR	DJ Moore	33.90	DJ Moore	33.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	14.00	Alvin Kamara	14.00
RB	Kareem Hunt	16.60	Kareem Hunt	16.60
TE	Darren Waller	15.00	Darren Waller	15.00
W/R/T	Will Fuller V	1.60	Leonard Fournette	16.90
W/R/T	Leonard Fournette	16.90	Jeremy McNichols	16.50
K	Matt Gay	8.00	Matt Gay	8.00
DEF	Broncos	3.58	Broncos	3.58

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 33.90 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.00 points left. Optimal 134.29 vs. actual 121.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	11.06	Tom Brady	11.06
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	10.70	A.J. Green	17.70
WR	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	5.90	Mike Evans	14.50
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	22.30	Ezekiel Elliott	22.30
RB	Chase Edmonds	19.90	Chase Edmonds	19.90
TE	Tyler Higbee	7.60	Tyler Higbee	7.60
W/R/T	Mike Evans	14.50	Latavius Murray	11.90
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	24.20	Diontae Johnson	24.20
K	Brandon McManus	1.00	Brandon McManus	1.00
DEF	Dolphins	4.13	Dolphins	4.13

Carried by One Guy: Diontae Johnson, 24.20 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DJ Moore scored 33.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2021

Martin

130.77

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Josh

119.51

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.76 points left. Optimal 164.53 vs. actual 130.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	31.72	Patrick Mahomes	31.72
WR	Robert Woods	14.80	Robert Woods	14.80
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	3.14	DeVante Parker	17.70
RB	Derrick Henry	27.70	Derrick Henry	27.70
RB	Zack Moss	12.10	Zack Moss	12.10
TE	Dallas Goedert	16.60	Dallas Goedert	16.60
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	1.50	Dawson Knox	20.70
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	17.00	Laviska Shenault Jr.	17.00
K	Younghoe Koo	5.00	Younghoe Koo	5.00
DEF	Raiders	1.21	Raiders	1.21

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 31.72 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.90 points left. Optimal 144.41 vs. actual 119.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	24.12	Aaron Rodgers	24.12
WR	Terry McLaurin	32.30	Corey Davis	23.10
WR	CeeDee Lamb	3.30	Terry McLaurin	32.30
RB	Dalvin Cook	6.40	Dalvin Cook	6.40
RB	Myles Gaskin	0.30	Marlon Mack	3.30
TE	Mike Gesicki	16.70	Mike Gesicki	16.70
W/R/T	Corey Davis	23.10	Evan Engram	7.40
W/R/T	Terrace Marshall Jr.	1.20	Jared Cook	19.00
K	Greg Zuerlein	6.00	Greg Zuerlein	6.00
DEF	Cardinals	6.09	Cardinals	6.09

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Terry McLaurin, 32.30 points (27.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 31.72; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2021

Demich

126.76

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Niz

117.86

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.10 points left. Optimal 144.86 vs. actual 126.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	27.02	Dak Prescott	27.02
WR	Calvin Ridley	15.00	Calvin Ridley	15.00
WR	K.J. Osborn	6.60	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.00
RB	J.J. Taylor	-1.00	Josh Jacobs	10.70
RB	Michael Carter	10.40	Michael Carter	10.40
TE	Travis Kelce	6.30	Travis Kelce	6.30
W/R/T	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	11.00	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	11.00
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	38.00	Deebo Samuel Sr.	38.00
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	10.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	10.00
DEF	Titans	3.44	Titans	3.44

Carried by One Guy: Deebo Samuel Sr., 38.00 points (29.7% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 128.06 vs. actual 117.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	22.56	Russell Wilson	22.56
WR	Adam Thielen	7.60	Sammy Watkins	8.90
WR	Allen Robinson	9.30	Allen Robinson	9.30
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	36.16	Cordarrelle Patterson	36.16
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	11.10	Aaron Jones Sr.	11.10
TE	Mark Andrews	11.70	Mark Andrews	11.70
W/R/T	DJ Chark	0.00	Nelson Agholor	8.90
W/R/T	Marquez Callaway	9.40	Marquez Callaway	9.40
K	Justin Tucker	12.00	Justin Tucker	12.00
DEF	Rams	-1.96	Rams	-1.96

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cordarrelle Patterson, 36.16 points (30.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deebo Samuel Sr. scored 38.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2021

Krajcik

125.77

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Fischer

92.02

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.40 points left. Optimal 152.17 vs. actual 125.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	22.62	Kyler Murray	22.62
WR	Hollywood Brown	19.10	Hollywood Brown	19.10
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	13.70	Ja'Marr Chase	13.70
RB	Tony Pollard	6.98	James Conner	20.60
RB	James Robinson	20.60	James Robinson	20.60
TE	George Kittle	8.00	Hunter Henry	13.20
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	3.60	Brandin Cooks	9.70
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	9.70	Deonte Harty	11.18
K	Matt Prater	13.00	Matt Prater	13.00
DEF	Packers	8.47	Packers	8.47

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 22.62 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.70 points left. Optimal 99.72 vs. actual 92.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	24.32	Joe Burrow	24.32
WR	Davante Adams	12.40	Davante Adams	12.40
WR	Cooper Kupp	11.40	Cooper Kupp	11.40
RB	Joe Mixon	13.70	Joe Mixon	13.70
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	1.08	Trey Sermon	8.90
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	9.00	Kyle Pitts Sr.	9.00
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	7.70	Courtland Sutton	7.70
W/R/T	Trey Sermon	8.90	Rondale Moore	6.88
K	Daniel Carlson	2.00	Daniel Carlson	2.00
DEF	Bengals	1.52	Patriots	3.42

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 24.32 points (26.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2021

Big Hut

156.46

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

154.14

Rank 2; -5.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.00 points left. Optimal 187.46 vs. actual 156.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	21.28	Justin Herbert	21.28
WR	Tyreek Hill	49.60	Tyreek Hill	49.60
WR	Kenny Golladay	19.60	Kenny Golladay	19.60
RB	Miles Sanders	7.70	J.D. McKissic	16.90
RB	Jonathan Taylor	22.40	Jonathan Taylor	22.40
TE	Noah Fant	16.60	Noah Fant	16.60
W/R/T	Mike Davis	10.60	Randall Cobb	23.90
W/R/T	Mike Williams	2.10	Mike Davis	10.60
K	Robbie Gould	0.00	Robbie Gould	0.00
DEF	Commanders	6.58	Commanders	6.58

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 49.60 points (31.7% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 154.14 vs. actual 154.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	20.02	Josh Allen	20.02
WR	Tyler Boyd	22.80	Tyler Boyd	22.80
WR	Chester Rogers	12.18	Chester Rogers	12.18
RB	Nick Chubb	13.50	Nick Chubb	13.50
RB	David Montgomery	24.60	David Montgomery	24.60
TE	Robert Tonyan	2.80	Robert Tonyan	2.80
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	13.10	Emmanuel Sanders	13.10
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	8.70	Melvin Gordon III	8.70
K	Ryan Succop	13.00	Ryan Succop	13.00
DEF	Bills	23.44	Bills	23.44

Carried by One Guy: David Montgomery, 24.60 points (16.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 49.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2021

Miller

140.37

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

121.18

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.70 points left. Optimal 158.07 vs. actual 140.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	30.18	Jalen Hurts	30.18
WR	DK Metcalf	16.50	DK Metcalf	16.50
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	11.90	Michael Pittman Jr.	11.90
RB	D'Andre Swift	8.90	Damien Williams	15.00
RB	Antonio Gibson	15.50	Antonio Gibson	15.50
TE	T.J. Hockenson	8.20	T.J. Hockenson	8.20
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	16.94	Hunter Renfrow	16.94
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	8.90	Darnell Mooney	20.50
K	Tyler Bass	13.00	Tyler Bass	13.00
DEF	Buccaneers	10.35	Buccaneers	10.35

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 30.18 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.44 points left. Optimal 145.62 vs. actual 121.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	14.44	Trey Lance	20.38
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	8.50	Jakobi Meyers	16.80
WR	DeVonta Smith	21.20	DeVonta Smith	21.20
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	21.40	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	21.40
RB	Chuba Hubbard	9.10	Chuba Hubbard	9.10
TE	Cameron Brate	4.90	Cameron Brate	4.90
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	6.40	Darrell Henderson Jr.	16.60
W/R/T	Najee Harris	21.10	Najee Harris	21.10
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Cowboys	7.14	Cowboys	7.14

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, 21.40 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jalen Hurts scored 30.18; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2021

Kev

115.53

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

141.43

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.60 points left. Optimal 141.13 vs. actual 115.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	19.30	Matthew Stafford	19.30
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	5.10	Justin Jefferson	20.40
WR	Justin Jefferson	20.40	Kadarius Toney	13.90
RB	Chris Carson	4.10	Austin Ekeler	31.50
RB	Austin Ekeler	31.50	Kenny Gainwell	20.90
TE	Logan Thomas	0.00	Logan Thomas	0.00
W/R/T	Antonio Brown	13.30	Antonio Brown	13.30
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	5.40	Marvin Jones Jr.	5.40
K	Graham Gano	7.00	Graham Gano	7.00
DEF	Colts	9.43	Colts	9.43

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 31.50 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Saquon Barkley scored 29.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.00 points left. Optimal 149.43 vs. actual 141.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	21.44	Lamar Jackson	21.44
WR	Amari Cooper	15.90	Amari Cooper	15.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	20.40	Stefon Diggs	20.40
RB	Brandon Bolden	11.60	Brandon Bolden	11.60
RB	Saquon Barkley	29.60	Saquon Barkley	29.60
TE	Dalton Schultz	17.80	Dalton Schultz	17.80
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	9.90	Jonnu Smith	10.40
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	6.30	Darrel Williams	13.80
K	Harrison Butker	6.00	Harrison Butker	6.00
DEF	Saints	2.49	Saints	2.49

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 29.60 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–1	3.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	2–2	1.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	3–1	2.000	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Demich	3–1	2.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	4–0	3.077	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Big Hut	3–1	2.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–3	1.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	0–4	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	3–1	2.000	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Fischer	2–2	2.231	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	1–3	1.385	-3.0	-0.231	1 / 1
Joe Shore	1–3	2.154	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	1–3	2.154	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Horgan	1–3	1.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2021 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4