2021 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 21 – 27, 2021

j-mart

158.54

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

132.58

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.52 points left. Optimal 167.06 vs. actual 158.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	21.48	Ryan Tannehill	21.48
WR	Keenan Allen	19.00	Keenan Allen	19.00
WR	DJ Moore	22.50	DJ Moore	22.50
RB	Alvin Kamara	20.80	Alvin Kamara	20.80
RB	Kareem Hunt	27.50	Kareem Hunt	27.50
TE	Darren Waller	10.40	Darren Waller	10.40
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	5.50	Will Fuller V	7.00
W/R/T	Ty'Son Williams	2.20	Jeremy McNichols	9.22
K	Matt Gay	10.00	Matt Gay	10.00
DEF	Broncos	19.16	Broncos	19.16

Carried by One Guy: Kareem Hunt, 27.50 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.00 points left. Optimal 156.58 vs. actual 132.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	17.58	Joe Burrow	17.58
WR	Sterling Shepard	3.60	Davante Adams	33.20
WR	Cooper Kupp	30.60	Cooper Kupp	30.60
RB	Kenyan Drake	8.70	Joe Mixon	10.40
RB	Joe Mixon	10.40	Jamaal Williams	14.70
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	5.50	Kyle Pitts Sr.	5.50
W/R/T	Davante Adams	33.20	Nyheim Miller-Hines	18.90
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	8.70	Trey Sermon	11.40
K	Daniel Carlson	11.00	Daniel Carlson	11.00
DEF	Patriots	3.30	Patriots	3.30

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 33.20 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kareem Hunt scored 27.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 21 – 27, 2021

Miller

131.26

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

133.96

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.98 points left. Optimal 148.24 vs. actual 131.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	22.54	Jalen Hurts	22.54
WR	DK Metcalf	24.70	DK Metcalf	24.70
WR	Darnell Mooney	1.90	Hunter Renfrow	18.88
RB	D'Andre Swift	23.70	D'Andre Swift	23.70
RB	Antonio Gibson	17.40	Antonio Gibson	17.40
TE	T.J. Hockenson	3.00	T.J. Hockenson	3.00
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	13.30	Michael Pittman Jr.	13.30
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	13.20	Javonte Williams	13.20
K	Tyler Bass	12.00	Tyler Bass	12.00
DEF	Buccaneers	-0.48	Buccaneers	-0.48

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: DK Metcalf, 24.70 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mike Williams scored 35.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.90 points left. Optimal 150.86 vs. actual 133.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	30.84	Justin Herbert	30.84
WR	Tyreek Hill	9.70	Kenny Golladay	10.40
WR	Chase Claypool	18.60	Chase Claypool	18.60
RB	Miles Sanders	8.50	Giovani Bernard	20.10
RB	Jonathan Taylor	8.20	Mike Davis	11.00
TE	Noah Fant	3.50	Noah Fant	3.50
W/R/T	Mike Davis	11.00	Mike Williams	35.20
W/R/T	Mike Williams	35.20	Henry Ruggs III	12.80
K	Robbie Gould	4.00	Robbie Gould	4.00
DEF	Ravens	4.42	Ravens	4.42

Carried by One Guy: Mike Williams, 35.20 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 21 – 27, 2021

Demich

91.47

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

156.61

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 91.47 vs. actual 91.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	20.12	Dak Prescott	20.12
WR	Calvin Ridley	14.10	Calvin Ridley	14.10
WR	K.J. Osborn	4.60	K.J. Osborn	4.60
RB	James White	0.60	James White	0.60
RB	Michael Carter	4.90	Michael Carter	4.90
TE	Travis Kelce	19.40	Travis Kelce	19.40
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	10.20	Deebo Samuel Sr.	10.20
W/R/T	KJ Hamler	3.80	KJ Hamler	3.80
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	9.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	9.00
DEF	Titans	4.75	Titans	4.75

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 20.12 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.60 points left. Optimal 169.21 vs. actual 156.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	20.54	Kyler Murray	20.54
WR	Hollywood Brown	8.30	Cole Beasley	20.80
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	22.50	Ja'Marr Chase	22.50
RB	Christian McCaffrey	6.00	James Conner	18.30
RB	James Robinson	25.40	James Robinson	25.40
TE	George Kittle	17.10	George Kittle	17.10
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	20.80	Brandin Cooks	22.70
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	22.70	Hunter Henry	8.60
K	Matt Prater	7.00	Matt Prater	7.00
DEF	Packers	6.27	Packers	6.27

Carried by One Guy: James Robinson, 25.40 points (16.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 21 – 27, 2021

Josh

117.07

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam

137.74

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.20 points left. Optimal 138.27 vs. actual 117.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	19.04	Aaron Rodgers	19.04
WR	Terry McLaurin	10.20	Terry McLaurin	10.20
WR	CeeDee Lamb	9.66	CeeDee Lamb	9.66
RB	Sony Michel	10.90	Sony Michel	10.90
RB	Myles Gaskin	10.40	Myles Gaskin	10.40
TE	Jared Cook	4.70	Mike Gesicki	18.60
W/R/T	Alexander Mattison	25.10	Corey Davis	9.10
W/R/T	Quintez Cephus	1.80	Alexander Mattison	25.10
K	Greg Zuerlein	4.00	Greg Zuerlein	4.00
DEF	Cardinals	21.27	Cardinals	21.27

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Alexander Mattison, 25.10 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 30.68; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.40 points left. Optimal 153.14 vs. actual 137.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	30.68	Tom Brady	30.68
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	5.10	DeAndre Hopkins	5.10
WR	Zach Pascal	5.10	Zach Pascal	5.10
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	26.60	Ezekiel Elliott	26.60
RB	Chase Edmonds	14.50	Chase Edmonds	14.50
TE	Tyler Higbee	15.00	Tyler Higbee	15.00
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	2.80	A.J. Green	18.20
W/R/T	Mike Evans	20.60	Mike Evans	20.60
K	Brandon McManus	15.00	Brandon McManus	15.00
DEF	Steelers	2.36	Steelers	2.36

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 30.68 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 21 – 27, 2021

Martin

109.44

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

124.38

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.02 points left. Optimal 136.46 vs. actual 109.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	22.90	Patrick Mahomes	22.90
WR	Robert Woods	6.80	Christian Kirk	19.40
WR	Christian Kirk	19.40	Jalen Reagor	10.26
RB	Derrick Henry	21.40	Derrick Henry	21.40
RB	Damien Harris	3.10	Zack Moss	18.10
TE	Dallas Goedert	8.60	Gerald Everett	10.40
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	8.20	Brandon Aiyuk	14.96
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	8.80	Laviska Shenault Jr.	8.80
K	Younghoe Koo	6.00	Younghoe Koo	6.00
DEF	Raiders	4.24	Raiders	4.24

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 22.90 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 39.22; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.90 points left. Optimal 129.28 vs. actual 124.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	39.22	Josh Allen	39.22
WR	Tyler Boyd	13.60	Tyler Boyd	13.60
WR	A.J. Brown	0.30	Elijah Moore	5.20
RB	Nick Chubb	8.40	Nick Chubb	8.40
RB	David Montgomery	7.50	David Montgomery	7.50
TE	Robert Tonyan	1.60	Robert Tonyan	1.60
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	26.40	Emmanuel Sanders	26.40
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	15.10	Melvin Gordon III	15.10
K	Ryan Succop	5.00	Ryan Succop	5.00
DEF	Bills	7.26	Bills	7.26

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 39.22 points (31.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 21 – 27, 2021

Joe Shore

143.31

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

105.73

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.60 points left. Optimal 155.91 vs. actual 143.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	23.24	Derek Carr	23.24
WR	Tyler Lockett	7.10	Tyler Lockett	7.10
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	19.60	Chris Godwin Jr.	19.60
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	18.90	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	18.90
RB	Najee Harris	30.20	Najee Harris	30.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	9.50	Rob Gronkowski	9.50
W/R/T	Tim Patrick	14.80	Tim Patrick	14.80
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	5.80	Jakobi Meyers	18.40
K	Harrison Butker	6.00	Harrison Butker	6.00
DEF	Panthers	8.17	Panthers	8.17

Carried by One Guy: Najee Harris, 30.20 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.50 points left. Optimal 125.23 vs. actual 105.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	19.28	Lamar Jackson	19.28
WR	Stefon Diggs	12.20	Stefon Diggs	12.20
WR	Robbie Chosen	1.80	Jaylen Waddle	17.80
RB	Mark Ingram II	3.00	Saquon Barkley	21.40
RB	Saquon Barkley	21.40	Darrel Williams	5.90
TE	Jonnu Smith	1.40	Jack Doyle	2.00
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	5.60	Amari Cooper	5.60
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	12.64	Mecole Hardman Jr.	12.64
K	Jason Myers	7.00	Jason Myers	7.00
DEF	Saints	21.41	Saints	21.41

Carried by One Guy: Saints, 21.41 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 21 – 27, 2021

Niz

126.61

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Kev

167.05

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.80 points left. Optimal 142.41 vs. actual 126.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	16.62	Russell Wilson	16.62
WR	Adam Thielen	17.00	Adam Thielen	17.00
WR	Allen Robinson	4.70	Van Jefferson	8.20
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	17.00	Cordarrelle Patterson	17.00
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.60	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.60
TE	Mark Andrews	17.90	Mark Andrews	17.90
W/R/T	DJ Chark	13.90	DJ Chark	13.90
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	1.80	Marquez Callaway	14.10
K	Justin Tucker	17.00	Justin Tucker	17.00
DEF	Rams	3.09	Rams	3.09

Carried by One Guy: Mark Andrews, 17.90 points (14.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.10 points left. Optimal 170.15 vs. actual 167.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	31.52	Matthew Stafford	31.52
WR	Julio Jones	7.70	Sammy Watkins	10.80
WR	Justin Jefferson	28.80	Justin Jefferson	28.80
RB	Chris Carson	16.20	Chris Carson	16.20
RB	Austin Ekeler	22.70	Austin Ekeler	22.70
TE	Logan Thomas	12.20	Logan Thomas	12.20
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	12.20	Marvin Jones Jr.	12.20
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.70	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.70
K	Graham Gano	5.00	Graham Gano	5.00
DEF	Browns	17.03	Browns	17.03

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 31.52 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–1	2.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–2	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	2–1	1.231	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Demich	2–1	1.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	3–0	2.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	2–1	1.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–2	1.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	0–3	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	3–0	1.615	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Fischer	2–1	2.231	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	1–2	0.462	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Joe Shore	1–2	1.846	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	1–2	2.077	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Horgan	0–3	0.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2021 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Kev lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3