2021 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 14 – 20, 2021

j-mart

126.37

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Demich

131.77

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.00 points left. Optimal 131.37 vs. actual 126.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	16.58	Ryan Tannehill	16.58
WR	Keenan Allen	16.80	Keenan Allen	16.80
WR	DJ Moore	21.90	DJ Moore	21.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	7.00	Alvin Kamara	7.00
RB	Kareem Hunt	6.30	Ty'Son Williams	11.30
TE	Darren Waller	11.50	Darren Waller	11.50
W/R/T	Leonard Fournette	11.60	Leonard Fournette	11.60
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	16.40	JuJu Smith-Schuster	16.40
K	Matt Gay	9.00	Matt Gay	9.00
DEF	Broncos	9.29	Broncos	9.29

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 21.90 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Travis Kelce scored 25.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.30 points left. Optimal 141.07 vs. actual 131.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	7.48	Dak Prescott	7.48
WR	Calvin Ridley	19.30	Calvin Ridley	19.30
WR	Tee Higgins	16.00	Tee Higgins	16.00
RB	James White	18.50	James White	18.50
RB	Elijah Mitchell	7.30	Elijah Mitchell	7.30
TE	Travis Kelce	25.90	Travis Kelce	25.90
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	16.10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	16.10
W/R/T	KJ Hamler	1.50	Michael Carter	10.80
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	12.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	12.00
DEF	Bengals	7.69	Bengals	7.69

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 25.90 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 14 – 20, 2021

Martin

131.24

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

95.88

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.70 points left. Optimal 144.94 vs. actual 131.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	26.02	Patrick Mahomes	26.02
WR	Robert Woods	12.00	Robert Woods	12.00
WR	Christian Kirk	9.50	Christian Kirk	9.50
RB	Derrick Henry	49.70	Derrick Henry	49.70
RB	Damien Harris	13.40	Damien Harris	13.40
TE	Dallas Goedert	4.40	Dallas Goedert	4.40
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	9.20	DeVante Parker	9.20
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	1.70	Zack Moss	15.40
K	Younghoe Koo	5.00	Younghoe Koo	5.00
DEF	Dolphins	0.32	Dolphins	0.32

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 49.70 points (37.9% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.04 points left. Optimal 121.92 vs. actual 95.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	16.72	Justin Herbert	16.72
WR	Kenny Golladay	6.80	Kenny Golladay	6.80
WR	Chase Claypool	9.70	Chase Claypool	9.70
RB	Miles Sanders	6.90	Mike Davis	13.30
RB	Jonathan Taylor	6.30	Miles Sanders	6.90
TE	Noah Fant	13.30	Noah Fant	13.30
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	5.90	Mike Williams	22.10
W/R/T	Mike Williams	22.10	Henry Ruggs III	24.94
K	Robbie Gould	6.00	Robbie Gould	6.00
DEF	Ravens	2.16	Ravens	2.16

Carried by One Guy: Mike Williams, 22.10 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Derrick Henry scored 49.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 14 – 20, 2021

Josh

126.14

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

182.66

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.30 points left. Optimal 130.44 vs. actual 126.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	26.80	Aaron Rodgers	26.80
WR	Terry McLaurin	29.70	Terry McLaurin	29.70
WR	CeeDee Lamb	17.40	CeeDee Lamb	17.40
RB	Dalvin Cook	18.80	Dalvin Cook	18.80
RB	Myles Gaskin	8.60	Myles Gaskin	8.60
TE	Jared Cook	5.80	Jared Cook	5.80
W/R/T	Corey Davis	2.80	Mike Gesicki	7.10
W/R/T	Terrace Marshall Jr.	4.70	Terrace Marshall Jr.	4.70
K	Greg Zuerlein	10.00	Greg Zuerlein	10.00
DEF	Cardinals	1.54	Cardinals	1.54

Carried by One Guy: Terry McLaurin, 29.70 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.70 points left. Optimal 192.36 vs. actual 182.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	10.28	Joe Burrow	10.28
WR	Sterling Shepard	17.50	Cooper Kupp	38.80
WR	Cooper Kupp	38.80	Rondale Moore	27.20
RB	Kenyan Drake	10.50	Kenyan Drake	10.50
RB	Joe Mixon	8.10	Joe Mixon	8.10
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	12.30	Kyle Pitts Sr.	12.30
W/R/T	Davante Adams	22.10	Davante Adams	22.10
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	26.90	Courtland Sutton	26.90
K	Daniel Carlson	17.00	Daniel Carlson	17.00
DEF	Patriots	19.18	Patriots	19.18

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 38.80 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 14 – 20, 2021

Adam

130.77

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

123.19

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 140.97 vs. actual 130.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	29.64	Tom Brady	29.64
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	15.40	DeAndre Hopkins	15.40
WR	Diontae Johnson	21.50	Diontae Johnson	21.50
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	17.70	Ezekiel Elliott	17.70
RB	Chase Edmonds	12.50	Chase Edmonds	12.50
TE	Tyler Higbee	1.80	Tyler Higbee	1.80
W/R/T	Mike Evans	24.50	Mike Evans	24.50
W/R/T	Ronald Jones	4.60	Zach Pascal	14.80
K	Jason Sanders	0.00	Jason Sanders	0.00
DEF	Steelers	3.13	Steelers	3.13

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 29.64 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.00 points left. Optimal 127.19 vs. actual 123.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	16.66	Josh Allen	16.66
WR	Tyler Boyd	14.30	Tyler Boyd	14.30
WR	A.J. Brown	7.30	Elijah Moore	8.70
RB	Nick Chubb	16.80	Nick Chubb	16.80
RB	David Montgomery	10.90	David Montgomery	10.90
TE	Robert Tonyan	14.20	Robert Tonyan	14.20
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	6.80	Melvin Gordon III	8.90
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	8.90	Phillip Lindsay	9.40
K	Ryan Succop	5.00	Ryan Succop	5.00
DEF	Bills	22.33	Bills	22.33

Carried by One Guy: Bills, 22.33 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 29.64; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 14 – 20, 2021

Niz

149.76

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

128.57

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.20 points left. Optimal 152.96 vs. actual 149.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	25.32	Russell Wilson	25.32
WR	Adam Thielen	15.90	Adam Thielen	15.90
WR	Allen Robinson	10.40	Allen Robinson	10.40
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	24.44	Cordarrelle Patterson	24.44
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	41.50	Aaron Jones Sr.	41.50
TE	Mark Andrews	10.70	Mark Andrews	10.70
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	1.90	Nelson Agholor	5.10
W/R/T	DJ Chark	2.90	DJ Chark	2.90
K	Justin Tucker	7.00	Justin Tucker	7.00
DEF	Rams	9.70	Rams	9.70

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 41.50 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.60 points left. Optimal 152.17 vs. actual 128.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	8.34	Jameis Winston	8.34
WR	Tyler Lockett	33.80	Tyler Lockett	33.80
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	16.20	Chris Godwin Jr.	16.20
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2.60	Devin Singletary	17.10
RB	Najee Harris	19.10	Najee Harris	19.10
TE	Rob Gronkowski	19.90	Rob Gronkowski	19.90
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	17.20	Tim Patrick	12.70
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	3.60	Darrell Henderson Jr.	17.20
K	Harrison Butker	5.00	Harrison Butker	5.00
DEF	Commanders	2.83	Commanders	2.83

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 33.80 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Jones Sr. scored 41.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 14 – 20, 2021

Krajcik

162.62

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev

134.45

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.32 points left. Optimal 181.94 vs. actual 162.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	35.10	Kyler Murray	35.10
WR	Hollywood Brown	25.30	Hollywood Brown	25.30
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	13.40	Ja'Marr Chase	13.40
RB	Christian McCaffrey	24.70	Christian McCaffrey	24.70
RB	James Robinson	9.40	James Robinson	9.40
TE	George Kittle	5.70	Hunter Henry	6.20
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	7.60	Brandin Cooks	22.80
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	22.80	Tony Pollard	26.42
K	Matt Prater	11.00	Matt Prater	11.00
DEF	Packers	7.62	Packers	7.62

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 35.10 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.20 points left. Optimal 141.65 vs. actual 134.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	17.22	Matthew Stafford	17.22
WR	Julio Jones	20.80	Julio Jones	20.80
WR	Justin Jefferson	18.50	Justin Jefferson	18.50
RB	Chris Carson	15.10	Chris Carson	15.10
RB	Austin Ekeler	22.50	Austin Ekeler	22.50
TE	Logan Thomas	9.50	Logan Thomas	9.50
W/R/T	Antonio Brown	2.70	Marvin Jones Jr.	17.50
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	17.50	JaMycal Hasty	9.90
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Browns	5.63	Browns	5.63

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 22.50 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kyler Murray scored 35.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 14 – 20, 2021

Miller

124.19

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Horgan

105.69

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.70 points left. Optimal 142.89 vs. actual 124.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	21.80	Jalen Hurts	21.80
WR	DK Metcalf	11.30	DK Metcalf	11.30
WR	Darnell Mooney	12.80	Darnell Mooney	12.80
RB	D'Andre Swift	11.80	D'Andre Swift	11.80
RB	Antonio Gibson	9.30	Antonio Gibson	9.30
TE	T.J. Hockenson	20.60	T.J. Hockenson	20.60
W/R/T	AJ Dillon	3.60	Michael Pittman Jr.	22.30
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	8.40	Javonte Williams	8.40
K	Tyler Bass	5.00	Tyler Bass	5.00
DEF	Buccaneers	19.59	Buccaneers	19.59

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 21.80 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.22 points left. Optimal 111.91 vs. actual 105.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	34.26	Lamar Jackson	34.26
WR	Amari Cooper	5.40	Stefon Diggs	16.00
WR	Stefon Diggs	16.00	Mecole Hardman Jr.	10.82
RB	Mark Ingram II	5.00	Saquon Barkley	8.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	8.90	Darrel Williams	5.80
TE	Jonnu Smith	6.80	Jonnu Smith	6.80
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	6.80	Robbie Chosen	6.80
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	8.80	Jaylen Waddle	8.80
K	Jason Myers	5.00	Jason Myers	5.00
DEF	Saints	8.73	Saints	8.73

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 34.26 points (32.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jalen Hurts scored 21.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–1	1.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–1	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	2–0	0.769	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Demich	2–0	1.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	2–0	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–1	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–1	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	0–2	0.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	2–0	0.923	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Fischer	2–0	1.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	0–2	0.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	0–2	1.077	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	0–2	1.077	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Horgan	0–2	0.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2021 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2