2021 week 14 · Luck Factor

Regular

Dec 7 – 13, 2021

j-mart

135.21

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Kev

140.39

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 135.21 vs. actual 135.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Taylor Heinicke	7.68	Taylor Heinicke	7.68
WR	Jalen Guyton	17.70	Jalen Guyton	17.70
WR	Donovan Peoples-Jones	14.00	Donovan Peoples-Jones	14.00
RB	Leonard Fournette	25.20	Leonard Fournette	25.20
RB	Alvin Kamara	26.50	Alvin Kamara	26.50
TE	Ricky Seals-Jones	1.80	Ricky Seals-Jones	1.80
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	3.80	Kareem Hunt	3.80
W/R/T	DJ Moore	14.40	DJ Moore	14.40
K	Matt Gay	14.00	Matt Gay	14.00
DEF	Broncos	10.13	Broncos	10.13

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 26.50 points (19.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyler Lockett scored 29.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 140.39 vs. actual 140.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	23.48	Matthew Stafford	23.48
WR	Tyler Lockett	29.20	Tyler Lockett	29.20
WR	Justin Jefferson	20.50	Justin Jefferson	20.50
RB	Austin Ekeler	16.40	Austin Ekeler	16.40
RB	JaMycal Hasty	5.26	JaMycal Hasty	5.26
TE	Cole Kmet	4.70	Cole Kmet	4.70
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	19.70	Odell Beckham Jr.	19.70
W/R/T	Russell Gage Jr.	10.40	Russell Gage Jr.	10.40
K	Randy Bullock	8.00	Randy Bullock	8.00
DEF	Panthers	2.75	Panthers	2.75

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 29.20 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 7 – 13, 2021

Martin

159.14

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam

122.71

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 159.14 vs. actual 159.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	20.32	Patrick Mahomes	20.32
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	18.68	Brandon Aiyuk	18.68
WR	Laviska Shenault Jr.	7.40	Laviska Shenault Jr.	7.40
RB	D'Onta Foreman	14.20	D'Onta Foreman	14.20
RB	Rashaad Penny	28.80	Rashaad Penny	28.80
TE	Dawson Knox	19.00	Dawson Knox	19.00
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	11.60	Christian Kirk	11.60
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	17.60	Joshua Palmer	17.60
K	Harrison Butker	14.00	Harrison Butker	14.00
DEF	Saints	7.54	Saints	7.54

Carried by One Guy: Rashaad Penny, 28.80 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.50 points left. Optimal 143.21 vs. actual 122.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	32.12	Tom Brady	32.12
WR	Mike Evans	21.10	Mike Evans	21.10
WR	Diontae Johnson	15.30	Diontae Johnson	15.30
RB	Devonta Freeman	12.20	Devonta Freeman	12.20
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	9.00	Ezekiel Elliott	9.00
TE	Tyler Conklin	4.00	Tyler Conklin	4.00
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	10.40	A.J. Green	19.20
W/R/T	Dontrell Hilliard	1.30	Marvin Jones Jr.	13.00
K	Greg Joseph	11.00	Greg Joseph	11.00
DEF	Chargers	6.29	Chargers	6.29

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 32.12 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Dec 7 – 13, 2021

Miller

129.36

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Niz

141.41

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.70 points left. Optimal 132.06 vs. actual 129.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Taysom Hill	26.30	Taysom Hill	26.30
WR	DK Metcalf	8.30	DK Metcalf	8.30
WR	Hunter Renfrow	30.82	Hunter Renfrow	30.82
RB	Antonio Gibson	4.10	Antonio Gibson	4.10
RB	Javonte Williams	21.30	Javonte Williams	21.30
TE	Austin Hooper	14.00	Austin Hooper	14.00
W/R/T	AJ Dillon	7.10	Jeff Wilson Jr.	5.60
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	2.90	AJ Dillon	7.10
K	Brandon McManus	10.00	Brandon McManus	10.00
DEF	Ravens	4.54	Ravens	4.54

Carried by One Guy: Hunter Renfrow, 30.82 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mark Andrews scored 30.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.16 points left. Optimal 160.57 vs. actual 141.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	14.04	Russell Wilson	21.20
WR	Allen Robinson	3.40	Jarvis Landry	15.10
WR	Jarvis Landry	15.10	Marquez Callaway	5.40
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	13.90	Cordarrelle Patterson	13.90
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	21.50	Aaron Jones Sr.	21.50
TE	Mark Andrews	30.50	Mark Andrews	30.50
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	4.90	Devin Singletary	14.90
W/R/T	Van Jefferson	14.80	Van Jefferson	14.80
K	Justin Tucker	15.00	Justin Tucker	15.00
DEF	Rams	8.27	Rams	8.27

Carried by One Guy: Mark Andrews, 30.50 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 7 – 13, 2021

Demich

119.22

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Josh

125.62

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.30 points left. Optimal 123.52 vs. actual 119.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	9.94	Dak Prescott	9.94
WR	Michael Gallup	11.00	Tee Higgins	18.40
WR	Tee Higgins	18.40	Amon-Ra St. Brown	15.30
RB	Rex Burkhead	10.60	Rex Burkhead	10.60
RB	Josh Jacobs	10.00	Josh Jacobs	10.00
TE	Travis Kelce	5.70	Travis Kelce	5.70
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.90	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.90
W/R/T	K.J. Osborn	17.30	K.J. Osborn	17.30
K	Chris Boswell	2.00	Chris Boswell	2.00
DEF	Titans	21.38	Titans	21.38

Carried by One Guy: Titans, 21.38 points (17.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dalvin Cook scored 37.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.19 points left. Optimal 132.81 vs. actual 125.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	31.64	Aaron Rodgers	31.64
WR	Terry McLaurin	0.00	Jerry Jeudy	9.70
WR	Jerry Jeudy	9.70	CeeDee Lamb	14.68
RB	Dalvin Cook	37.20	Dalvin Cook	37.20
RB	Sony Michel	7.90	Sony Michel	7.90
TE	Jared Cook	8.80	Jared Cook	8.80
W/R/T	Alex Collins	2.70	Alex Collins	2.70
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	14.68	Alexander Mattison	2.70
K	Greg Zuerlein	12.00	Greg Zuerlein	12.00
DEF	Cardinals	1.00	Buccaneers	5.49

Carried by One Guy: Dalvin Cook, 37.20 points (29.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 7 – 13, 2021

Fischer

133.59

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

114.62

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.30 points left. Optimal 140.89 vs. actual 133.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	24.22	Joe Burrow	24.22
WR	Davante Adams	36.10	Davante Adams	36.10
WR	Cooper Kupp	33.30	Cooper Kupp	33.30
RB	Joe Mixon	8.80	Joe Mixon	8.80
RB	Jermar Jefferson	0.00	Samaje Perine	7.30
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	11.10	Kyle Pitts Sr.	11.10
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	4.70	Sterling Shepard	4.70
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	1.90	Courtland Sutton	1.90
K	Daniel Carlson	1.00	Daniel Carlson	1.00
DEF	Packers	12.47	Packers	12.47

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 36.10 points (27.0% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 114.62 vs. actual 114.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	39.22	Josh Allen	39.22
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	3.50	Emmanuel Sanders	3.50
WR	Tyler Boyd	10.32	Tyler Boyd	10.32
RB	Nick Chubb	9.50	Nick Chubb	9.50
RB	David Montgomery	14.10	David Montgomery	14.10
TE	Evan Engram	1.80	Evan Engram	1.80
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	25.10	Melvin Gordon III	25.10
W/R/T	Keelan Cole Sr.	3.70	Keelan Cole Sr.	3.70
K	Ryan Succop	7.00	Ryan Succop	7.00
DEF	Bills	0.38	Bills	0.38

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 39.22 points (34.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Davante Adams scored 36.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 7 – 13, 2021

Krajcik

181.94

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

147.18

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 192.14 vs. actual 181.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	19.42	Kyler Murray	19.42
WR	Hollywood Brown	9.10	Ja'Marr Chase	25.30
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	25.30	Rashod Bateman	19.30
RB	James Conner	33.50	James Conner	33.50
RB	Chuba Hubbard	9.30	Chuba Hubbard	9.30
TE	George Kittle	36.10	George Kittle	36.10
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	15.40	Cole Beasley	15.40
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	20.10	Brandin Cooks	20.10
K	Tyler Bass	7.00	Tyler Bass	7.00
DEF	Seahawks	6.72	Seahawks	6.72

Carried by One Guy: George Kittle, 36.10 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.80 points left. Optimal 154.98 vs. actual 147.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	16.54	Ryan Tannehill	16.54
WR	Julio Jones	7.30	Julio Jones	7.30
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	22.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	22.50
RB	James Robinson	0.40	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	19.20
RB	Najee Harris	25.40	Najee Harris	25.40
TE	Rob Gronkowski	11.20	Rob Gronkowski	11.20
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	9.20	Zach Ertz	9.20
W/R/T	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	19.20	Josh Reynolds	8.20
K	Evan McPherson	11.00	Evan McPherson	11.00
DEF	Cowboys	24.44	Cowboys	24.44

Carried by One Guy: Najee Harris, 25.40 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: George Kittle scored 36.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 7 – 13, 2021

Big Hut

110.81

Rank 13; +5.5 luck points

Horgan

101.93

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 110.81 vs. actual 110.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	24.90	Justin Herbert	24.90
WR	Mike Williams	12.10	Mike Williams	12.10
WR	Chase Claypool	17.50	Chase Claypool	17.50
RB	Mike Davis	13.60	Mike Davis	13.60
RB	Jeremy McNichols	1.60	Jeremy McNichols	1.60
TE	Noah Fant	9.10	Noah Fant	9.10
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	11.60	Tyreek Hill	11.60
W/R/T	Tim Patrick	4.10	Tim Patrick	4.10
K	Dustin Hopkins	11.00	Dustin Hopkins	11.00
DEF	Vikings	5.31	Vikings	5.31

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 24.90 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.70 points left. Optimal 127.63 vs. actual 101.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	1.18	Lamar Jackson	1.18
WR	Stefon Diggs	14.40	Stefon Diggs	14.40
WR	Tre'Quan Smith	6.30	Robbie Chosen	21.40
RB	Saquon Barkley	18.50	Devontae Booker	12.40
RB	Ty Johnson	9.70	Saquon Barkley	18.50
TE	Dalton Schultz	1.40	Dalton Schultz	1.40
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	16.10	Amari Cooper	16.10
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	5.00	Darrel Williams	12.90
K	Jason Myers	5.00	Jason Myers	5.00
DEF	Chiefs	24.35	Chiefs	24.35

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Chiefs, 24.35 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Herbert scored 24.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	7–7	7.538	+4.0	+0.308	3 / 3
Martin	6–8	4.538	+9.5	+0.731	3 / 0
Miller	7–7	8.538	-10.5	-0.808	1 / 4
Demich	11–3	8.154	+2.5	+0.192	3 / 0
Krajcik	10–4	9.538	-2.0	-0.154	2 / 2
Big Hut	9–5	8.615	+6.5	+0.500	2 / 3
Niz	6–8	5.462	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Josh	6–8	6.385	+0.5	+0.038	2 / 1
Adam	10–4	7.462	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Fischer	8–6	8.308	-1.0	-0.077	0 / 2
Nevans	4–10	5.000	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Joe Shore	5–9	6.615	-4.5	-0.346	1 / 2
Kev	6–8	6.769	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	3–11	5.077	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2

2021 week 14 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 14