2021 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 30 – Dec 6, 2021

j-mart

107.99

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

123.92

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.10 points left. Optimal 114.09 vs. actual 107.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Taylor Heinicke	14.84	Taylor Heinicke	14.84
WR	Keenan Allen	22.40	Keenan Allen	22.40
WR	Sammy Watkins	13.90	Sammy Watkins	13.90
RB	Leonard Fournette	22.20	Carlos Hyde	7.30
RB	Ronald Jones	1.20	Leonard Fournette	22.20
TE	Jack Doyle	2.30	Jack Doyle	2.30
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	2.40	Zay Jones	5.10
W/R/T	Zay Jones	5.10	DeSean Jackson	2.40
K	Matt Gay	15.00	Matt Gay	15.00
DEF	49ers	8.65	49ers	8.65

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 22.40 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chris Godwin Jr. scored 32.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.72 points left. Optimal 130.64 vs. actual 123.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	12.36	Derek Carr	12.36
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	32.20	Chris Godwin Jr.	32.20
WR	DeVonta Smith	3.50	DeVonta Smith	3.50
RB	James Robinson	2.50	Najee Harris	15.70
RB	Najee Harris	15.70	Rhamondre Stevenson	7.80
TE	Rob Gronkowski	21.80	Rob Gronkowski	21.80
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	2.00	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	11.20
W/R/T	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	11.20	Rondale Moore	3.42
K	Evan McPherson	4.00	Evan McPherson	4.00
DEF	Cowboys	18.66	Cowboys	18.66

Carried by One Guy: Chris Godwin Jr., 32.20 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 30 – Dec 6, 2021

Miller

155.41

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Krajcik

171.83

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.80 points left. Optimal 160.21 vs. actual 155.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	17.86	Taysom Hill	22.66
WR	DK Metcalf	11.00	DK Metcalf	11.00
WR	Darnell Mooney	7.70	Darnell Mooney	7.70
RB	Antonio Gibson	22.10	Antonio Gibson	22.10
RB	Javonte Williams	31.80	Javonte Williams	31.80
TE	T.J. Hockenson	14.90	T.J. Hockenson	14.90
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	21.32	Hunter Renfrow	21.32
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	17.00	Michael Pittman Jr.	17.00
K	Matt Prater	8.00	Matt Prater	8.00
DEF	Ravens	3.73	Ravens	3.73

Carried by One Guy: Javonte Williams, 31.80 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: George Kittle scored 41.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.50 points left. Optimal 178.33 vs. actual 171.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	30.82	Kyler Murray	30.82
WR	Hollywood Brown	10.50	Hollywood Brown	10.50
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	10.20	Ja'Marr Chase	10.20
RB	James Conner	19.10	Brandon Bolden	6.50
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	0.00	James Conner	19.10
TE	George Kittle	41.60	George Kittle	41.60
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	8.40	Brandin Cooks	8.40
W/R/T	Tony Pollard	15.84	Tony Pollard	15.84
K	Jake Elliott	17.00	Jake Elliott	17.00
DEF	Colts	18.37	Colts	18.37

Carried by One Guy: George Kittle, 41.60 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 30 – Dec 6, 2021

Big Hut

129.26

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Adam

150.91

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.70 points left. Optimal 141.96 vs. actual 129.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	27.28	Justin Herbert	27.28
WR	Mike Williams	18.00	Mike Williams	18.00
WR	Chase Claypool	7.40	Chase Claypool	7.40
RB	Miles Sanders	19.20	Miles Sanders	19.20
RB	Jonathan Taylor	26.30	Jonathan Taylor	26.30
TE	Noah Fant	7.30	Noah Fant	7.30
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	4.20	Mike Davis	16.90
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	6.70	Kenny Golladay	6.70
K	Nick Folk	7.00	Nick Folk	7.00
DEF	Vikings	5.88	Vikings	5.88

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 27.28 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Diontae Johnson scored 32.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.40 points left. Optimal 153.31 vs. actual 150.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	30.62	Tom Brady	30.62
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	11.20	DeAndre Hopkins	11.20
WR	Mike Evans	16.90	Mike Evans	16.90
RB	Devonta Freeman	20.70	Devonta Freeman	20.70
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	6.70	Ezekiel Elliott	6.70
TE	Tyler Higbee	9.80	Tyler Higbee	9.80
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	3.10	Latavius Murray	5.50
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	32.50	Diontae Johnson	32.50
K	Greg Joseph	10.00	Greg Joseph	10.00
DEF	Dolphins	9.39	Dolphins	9.39

Carried by One Guy: Diontae Johnson, 32.50 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 30 – Dec 6, 2021

Martin

104.53

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Fischer

97.76

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.60 points left. Optimal 111.13 vs. actual 104.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	12.56	Patrick Mahomes	12.56
WR	DeVante Parker	11.20	DeVante Parker	11.20
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	8.42	Brandon Aiyuk	8.42
RB	Damien Harris	19.10	Damien Harris	19.10
RB	DeeJay Dallas	3.58	DeeJay Dallas	3.58
TE	Dallas Goedert	30.50	Dallas Goedert	30.50
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	1.40	Laviska Shenault Jr.	6.10
W/R/T	Dawson Knox	3.40	Zack Moss	5.30
K	Harrison Butker	11.00	Harrison Butker	11.00
DEF	Saints	3.37	Saints	3.37

Carried by One Guy: Dallas Goedert, 30.50 points (29.2% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.88 points left. Optimal 112.64 vs. actual 97.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	18.60	Joe Burrow	18.60
WR	Cooper Kupp	28.90	Cooper Kupp	28.90
WR	Kendrick Bourne	0.30	Courtland Sutton	3.50
RB	Joe Mixon	9.40	Joe Mixon	9.40
RB	Jamaal Williams	9.00	Jamaal Williams	9.00
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	8.80	Kyle Pitts Sr.	8.80
W/R/T	Boston Scott	0.26	Samaje Perine	6.10
W/R/T	Ty Johnson	3.50	Nyheim Miller-Hines	9.34
K	Daniel Carlson	11.00	Daniel Carlson	11.00
DEF	Patriots	8.00	Patriots	8.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 28.90 points (29.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dallas Goedert scored 30.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 30 – Dec 6, 2021

Demich

127.41

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Nevans

104.93

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.20 points left. Optimal 148.61 vs. actual 127.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	11.22	Dak Prescott	11.22
WR	Michael Gallup	14.60	Michael Gallup	14.60
WR	Tee Higgins	30.80	Tee Higgins	30.80
RB	Mark Ingram II	3.60	Rex Burkhead	5.50
RB	Josh Jacobs	24.00	Josh Jacobs	24.00
TE	Travis Kelce	5.70	Travis Kelce	5.70
W/R/T	Rex Burkhead	5.50	Amon-Ra St. Brown	24.80
W/R/T	Elijah Mitchell	17.40	Elijah Mitchell	17.40
K	Chris Boswell	8.00	Chris Boswell	8.00
DEF	Eagles	6.59	Eagles	6.59

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 30.80 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.34 points left. Optimal 115.27 vs. actual 104.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	11.70	Zach Wilson	21.04
WR	T.Y. Hilton	4.20	T.Y. Hilton	4.20
WR	Tyler Boyd	13.50	Tyler Boyd	13.50
RB	Kenyan Drake	2.18	Kenyan Drake	2.18
RB	David Montgomery	28.10	David Montgomery	28.10
TE	Evan Engram	10.10	Evan Engram	10.10
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	5.20	Emmanuel Sanders	5.20
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	20.60	Elijah Moore	20.60
K	Ryan Succop	5.00	Brian Johnson	6.00
DEF	Bills	4.35	Bills	4.35

Carried by One Guy: David Montgomery, 28.10 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tee Higgins scored 30.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 30 – Dec 6, 2021

Josh

133.79

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Kev

165.22

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.34 points left. Optimal 135.13 vs. actual 133.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	11.12	Carson Wentz	11.12
WR	Terry McLaurin	5.20	Jerry Jeudy	11.70
WR	Jerry Jeudy	11.70	CeeDee Lamb	19.90
RB	Alexander Mattison	21.40	Alexander Mattison	21.40
RB	Myles Gaskin	6.90	Myles Gaskin	6.90
TE	Mike Gesicki	11.60	Mike Gesicki	11.60
W/R/T	Sony Michel	23.90	Sony Michel	23.90
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	19.90	Jared Cook	5.90
K	Greg Zuerlein	11.00	Greg Zuerlein	11.00
DEF	Buccaneers	11.07	Cardinals	11.71

Carried by One Guy: Sony Michel, 23.90 points (17.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Jefferson scored 37.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 165.22 vs. actual 165.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	24.00	Matthew Stafford	24.00
WR	Tyler Lockett	19.80	Tyler Lockett	19.80
WR	Justin Jefferson	37.60	Justin Jefferson	37.60
RB	Adrian Peterson	7.60	Austin Ekeler	17.40
RB	Austin Ekeler	17.40	Adrian Peterson	7.60
TE	Logan Thomas	13.80	Logan Thomas	13.80
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	10.80	Odell Beckham Jr.	10.80
W/R/T	Russell Gage Jr.	24.00	Russell Gage Jr.	24.00
K	Michael Badgley	6.00	Michael Badgley	6.00
DEF	Giants	4.22	Giants	4.22

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 37.60 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 30 – Dec 6, 2021

Niz

80.87

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

129.87

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.70 points left. Optimal 82.57 vs. actual 80.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	22.20	Kirk Cousins	22.20
WR	Adam Thielen	1.00	Adam Thielen	1.00
WR	Nelson Agholor	0.60	Marquez Callaway	2.30
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	12.60	Cordarrelle Patterson	12.60
RB	Devin Singletary	3.60	Devin Singletary	3.60
TE	Mark Andrews	9.00	Mark Andrews	9.00
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	10.20	Jamison Crowder	10.20
W/R/T	Van Jefferson	16.10	Van Jefferson	16.10
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Bears	-0.43	Bears	-0.43

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 22.20 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.10 points left. Optimal 138.97 vs. actual 129.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	17.62	Lamar Jackson	17.62
WR	Stefon Diggs	9.10	Deonte Harty	20.64
WR	Jaylen Waddle	18.78	Jaylen Waddle	18.78
RB	Tevin Coleman	10.70	Tevin Coleman	10.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	13.40	Saquon Barkley	13.40
TE	Dalton Schultz	9.30	Dalton Schultz	9.30
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	2.20	Devontae Booker	9.40
W/R/T	Deonte Harty	20.64	Darrel Williams	11.00
K	Graham Gano	11.00	Graham Gano	11.00
DEF	Chiefs	17.13	Chiefs	17.13

Carried by One Guy: Deonte Harty, 20.64 points (15.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	7–6	6.923	+5.5	+0.423	3 / 2
Martin	5–8	3.615	+9.5	+0.731	3 / 0
Miller	7–6	8.077	-10.5	-0.808	1 / 4
Demich	11–2	7.923	+2.5	+0.192	3 / 0
Krajcik	9–4	8.538	-2.0	-0.154	2 / 2
Big Hut	8–5	8.538	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 3
Niz	5–8	4.692	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Josh	5–8	6.000	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Adam	10–3	7.154	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Fischer	7–6	7.769	-1.0	-0.077	0 / 2
Nevans	4–9	4.846	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Joe Shore	5–8	5.769	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Kev	5–8	6.077	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	3–10	5.077	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2

2021 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13