2021 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 23 – 29, 2021

j-mart

110.62

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Miller

118.42

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 118.82 vs. actual 110.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Taylor Heinicke	11.22	Taylor Heinicke	11.22
WR	Keenan Allen	15.50	Keenan Allen	15.50
WR	DJ Moore	16.30	DJ Moore	16.30
RB	Leonard Fournette	46.10	Leonard Fournette	46.10
RB	Tony Jones	2.70	Tony Jones	2.70
TE	Darren Waller	5.30	Darren Waller	5.30
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	1.50	Kareem Hunt	2.00
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	2.00	Ronald Jones	9.70
K	Matt Gay	8.00	Matt Gay	8.00
DEF	Panthers	2.00	Panthers	2.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Leonard Fournette, 46.10 points (41.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Gibson scored 25.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 42.78 points left. Optimal 161.20 vs. actual 118.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	6.86	Jalen Hurts	6.86
WR	DK Metcalf	2.30	Hunter Renfrow	24.28
WR	Darnell Mooney	19.50	Darnell Mooney	19.50
RB	D'Andre Swift	3.90	AJ Dillon	20.00
RB	Antonio Gibson	25.60	Antonio Gibson	25.60
TE	T.J. Hockenson	12.50	T.J. Hockenson	12.50
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.30	Javonte Williams	20.10
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	20.10	Pat Freiermuth	14.00
K	Tyler Bass	7.00	Tyler Bass	7.00
DEF	Ravens	11.36	Ravens	11.36

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Gibson, 25.60 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 23 – 29, 2021

Martin

78.59

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Demich

163.12

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.64 points left. Optimal 87.23 vs. actual 78.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	6.18	Cam Newton	6.18
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	12.78	Brandon Aiyuk	12.78
WR	Laviska Shenault Jr.	8.30	Laviska Shenault Jr.	8.30
RB	D'Onta Foreman	12.20	D'Onta Foreman	12.20
RB	Damien Harris	12.20	Damien Harris	12.20
TE	Dallas Goedert	1.00	Dallas Goedert	1.00
W/R/T	Dawson Knox	18.20	Dawson Knox	18.20
W/R/T	Zack Moss	0.00	DeeJay Dallas	8.64
K	Younghoe Koo	3.00	Younghoe Koo	3.00
DEF	Saints	4.73	Saints	4.73

Carried by One Guy: Dawson Knox, 18.20 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 163.12 vs. actual 163.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	27.30	Dak Prescott	27.30
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	20.80	Deebo Samuel Sr.	20.80
WR	Tee Higgins	25.40	Tee Higgins	25.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	19.20	Josh Jacobs	19.20
RB	Elijah Mitchell	29.80	Elijah Mitchell	29.80
TE	Mo Alie-Cox	1.80	Mo Alie-Cox	1.80
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	17.60	Michael Gallup	17.60
W/R/T	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	10.50	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	10.50
K	Chris Boswell	5.00	Chris Boswell	5.00
DEF	Eagles	5.72	Eagles	5.72

Carried by One Guy: Elijah Mitchell, 29.80 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 23 – 29, 2021

Big Hut

104.66

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Niz

134.10

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.10 points left. Optimal 133.76 vs. actual 104.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	21.72	Justin Herbert	21.72
WR	Mike Williams	7.90	Mike Williams	7.90
WR	Chase Claypool	11.20	Chase Claypool	11.20
RB	Miles Sanders	7.40	J.D. McKissic	22.60
RB	Jonathan Taylor	19.70	Jonathan Taylor	19.70
TE	Hunter Henry	3.60	Noah Fant	4.20
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	8.00	Randall Cobb	17.50
W/R/T	Noah Fant	4.20	Kenny Golladay	8.00
K	Nick Folk	19.00	Nick Folk	19.00
DEF	Colts	1.94	Colts	1.94

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 21.72 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cordarrelle Patterson scored 29.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.76 points left. Optimal 152.86 vs. actual 134.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	15.52	Russell Wilson	19.48
WR	Adam Thielen	23.20	Adam Thielen	23.20
WR	Nelson Agholor	5.00	Nelson Agholor	5.00
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	29.50	Cordarrelle Patterson	29.50
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	2.30	Devin Singletary	5.80
TE	Mark Andrews	16.50	Mark Andrews	16.50
W/R/T	Devin Singletary	5.80	Jarvis Landry	17.10
W/R/T	Van Jefferson	18.30	Van Jefferson	18.30
K	Justin Tucker	12.00	Justin Tucker	12.00
DEF	Bears	5.98	Bears	5.98

Carried by One Guy: Cordarrelle Patterson, 29.50 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 23 – 29, 2021

Adam

95.00

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

159.37

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.74 points left. Optimal 123.74 vs. actual 95.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	11.24	Tom Brady	11.24
WR	Mike Evans	4.60	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.30
WR	Diontae Johnson	18.50	Diontae Johnson	18.50
RB	Devonta Freeman	7.00	Devonta Freeman	7.00
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	16.90	Ezekiel Elliott	16.90
TE	Dan Arnold	1.90	Dan Arnold	1.90
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.30	Matt Breida	13.50
W/R/T	Tyler Higbee	1.30	Dontrell Hilliard	21.14
K	Greg Joseph	1.00	Greg Joseph	1.00
DEF	Dolphins	24.26	Dolphins	24.26

Carried by One Guy: Dolphins, 24.26 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.60 points left. Optimal 177.97 vs. actual 159.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	16.40	Joe Burrow	16.40
WR	Davante Adams	20.40	Davante Adams	20.40
WR	Cooper Kupp	18.60	Cooper Kupp	18.60
RB	Joe Mixon	34.30	Joe Mixon	34.30
RB	Ty Johnson	4.20	Jamaal Williams	13.30
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	4.60	Kyle Pitts Sr.	4.60
W/R/T	Kendrick Bourne	23.10	Kendrick Bourne	23.10
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	3.70	Boston Scott	13.20
K	Daniel Carlson	19.00	Daniel Carlson	19.00
DEF	Patriots	15.07	Patriots	15.07

Carried by One Guy: Joe Mixon, 34.30 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 23 – 29, 2021

Nevans

99.39

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Kev

130.57

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.50 points left. Optimal 105.89 vs. actual 99.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	26.70	Josh Allen	26.70
WR	T.Y. Hilton	12.80	Emmanuel Sanders	5.80
WR	Tyler Boyd	3.30	T.Y. Hilton	12.80
RB	Nick Chubb	5.90	Nick Chubb	5.90
RB	David Montgomery	10.40	David Montgomery	10.40
TE	Evan Engram	6.70	Evan Engram	6.70
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	5.80	Melvin Gordon III	9.80
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	9.30	Elijah Moore	9.30
K	Ryan Succop	7.00	Ryan Succop	7.00
DEF	Bills	11.49	Bills	11.49

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 26.70 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.50 points left. Optimal 143.07 vs. actual 130.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	23.98	Matthew Stafford	23.98
WR	Tyler Lockett	12.60	Tyler Lockett	12.60
WR	Justin Jefferson	13.26	Justin Jefferson	13.26
RB	David Johnson	7.50	David Johnson	7.50
RB	Austin Ekeler	21.90	Austin Ekeler	21.90
TE	Cole Kmet	14.50	Cole Kmet	14.50
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	19.10	Odell Beckham Jr.	19.10
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	5.70	Russell Gage Jr.	18.20
K	Michael Badgley	8.00	Michael Badgley	8.00
DEF	Jaguars	4.03	Jaguars	4.03

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 23.98 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 23 – 29, 2021

Josh

102.47

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Joe Shore

89.01

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.56 points left. Optimal 120.03 vs. actual 102.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	28.28	Aaron Rodgers	28.28
WR	Terry McLaurin	9.10	Terry McLaurin	9.10
WR	Jerry Jeudy	4.50	Jerry Jeudy	4.50
RB	Dalvin Cook	14.30	Dalvin Cook	14.30
RB	Myles Gaskin	19.20	Myles Gaskin	19.20
TE	Mike Gesicki	4.70	Jared Cook	10.50
W/R/T	Alex Collins	1.70	Sony Michel	5.30
W/R/T	Donovan Peoples-Jones	3.00	Alexander Mattison	11.16
K	Greg Zuerlein	6.00	Greg Zuerlein	6.00
DEF	Buccaneers	11.69	Buccaneers	11.69

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 28.28 points (27.6% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.84 points left. Optimal 100.85 vs. actual 89.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	13.20	Tua Tagovailoa	13.20
WR	Deonte Harty	3.36	Tim Patrick	4.60
WR	DeVonta Smith	4.20	Jakobi Meyers	14.80
RB	James Robinson	12.50	James Robinson	12.50
RB	Najee Harris	6.70	Najee Harris	6.70
TE	Rob Gronkowski	21.30	Rob Gronkowski	21.30
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	4.70	Chris Godwin Jr.	4.70
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	4.60	Rhamondre Stevenson	4.60
K	Evan McPherson	13.00	Evan McPherson	13.00
DEF	Cowboys	5.45	Cowboys	5.45

Carried by One Guy: Rob Gronkowski, 21.30 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 28.28; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 23 – 29, 2021

Krajcik

95.75

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

134.19

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.30 points left. Optimal 102.05 vs. actual 95.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	11.20	Jimmy Garoppolo	11.20
WR	Hollywood Brown	13.10	Cole Beasley	9.60
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	6.90	Hollywood Brown	13.10
RB	Christian McCaffrey	3.50	Darrell Henderson Jr.	17.30
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	17.30	Tony Pollard	20.38
TE	George Kittle	2.30	George Kittle	2.30
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	13.50	Brandin Cooks	13.50
W/R/T	Tony Pollard	20.38	Rashod Bateman	7.10
K	Jake Elliott	1.00	Jake Elliott	1.00
DEF	Texans	6.57	Texans	6.57

Carried by One Guy: Tony Pollard, 20.38 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 134.19 vs. actual 134.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	9.40	Lamar Jackson	9.40
WR	Stefon Diggs	20.40	Stefon Diggs	20.40
WR	Jaylen Waddle	30.84	Jaylen Waddle	30.84
RB	Tevin Coleman	9.00	Tevin Coleman	9.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	9.30	Saquon Barkley	9.30
TE	Dalton Schultz	15.60	Dalton Schultz	15.60
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	9.00	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	9.00
W/R/T	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	19.72	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	19.72
K	Zane Gonzalez	5.00	Zane Gonzalez	5.00
DEF	Lions	5.93	Lions	5.93

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Waddle, 30.84 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	7–5	6.615	+5.5	+0.423	3 / 2
Martin	4–8	3.462	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Miller	7–5	7.231	-6.0	-0.462	1 / 3
Demich	10–2	7.462	+2.0	+0.154	2 / 0
Krajcik	8–4	7.538	-2.0	-0.154	2 / 2
Big Hut	8–4	8.000	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 2
Niz	5–7	4.692	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Josh	5–7	5.308	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	9–3	6.385	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Fischer	7–5	7.692	-1.0	-0.077	0 / 2
Nevans	4–8	4.615	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Joe Shore	4–8	5.385	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	4–8	5.154	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	2–10	4.462	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2

2021 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12