2021 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 16 – 22, 2021

j-mart

122.73

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Horgan

104.51

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.50 points left. Optimal 125.23 vs. actual 122.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	11.22	Ryan Tannehill	11.22
WR	Keenan Allen	22.20	Keenan Allen	22.20
WR	DJ Moore	16.00	DJ Moore	16.00
RB	Leonard Fournette	13.40	Leonard Fournette	13.40
RB	Jeff Wilson Jr.	6.80	Ronald Jones	9.30
TE	Darren Waller	20.60	Darren Waller	20.60
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	7.80	Sammy Watkins	7.80
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	16.40	Jamison Crowder	16.40
K	Zane Gonzalez	3.00	Zane Gonzalez	3.00
DEF	Panthers	5.31	Panthers	5.31

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 22.20 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.80 points left. Optimal 124.31 vs. actual 104.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	8.60	Derek Carr	8.60
WR	Stefon Diggs	18.30	Stefon Diggs	18.30
WR	Jaylen Waddle	20.92	Jaylen Waddle	20.92
RB	Saquon Barkley	11.60	Saquon Barkley	11.60
RB	Darrel Williams	3.60	Darrel Williams	3.60
TE	Dalton Schultz	11.30	Dalton Schultz	11.30
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	8.00	Robbie Chosen	8.00
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	4.50	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	24.30
K	Harrison Butker	8.00	Harrison Butker	8.00
DEF	Ravens	9.69	Ravens	9.69

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Waddle, 20.92 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Keenan Allen scored 22.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 16 – 22, 2021

Miller

135.56

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Josh

143.06

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.66 points left. Optimal 143.22 vs. actual 135.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	30.78	Jalen Hurts	30.78
WR	DK Metcalf	7.10	Hunter Renfrow	7.96
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	4.30	Darnell Mooney	25.10
RB	D'Andre Swift	24.60	D'Andre Swift	24.60
RB	AJ Dillon	15.70	AJ Dillon	15.70
TE	T.J. Hockenson	11.10	T.J. Hockenson	11.10
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	7.50	Antonio Gibson	7.50
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	25.10	Pat Freiermuth	11.10
K	Tyler Bass	1.00	Tyler Bass	1.00
DEF	Browns	8.38	Browns	8.38

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 30.78 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 35.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.20 points left. Optimal 145.26 vs. actual 143.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	35.50	Aaron Rodgers	35.50
WR	Terry McLaurin	23.30	Terry McLaurin	23.30
WR	CeeDee Lamb	4.40	CeeDee Lamb	4.40
RB	Dalvin Cook	22.50	Dalvin Cook	22.50
RB	Myles Gaskin	18.60	Myles Gaskin	18.60
TE	Mike Gesicki	10.00	Mike Gesicki	10.00
W/R/T	Alex Collins	3.60	Corey Davis	6.50
W/R/T	Corey Davis	6.50	Jared Cook	5.80
K	Greg Zuerlein	10.00	Greg Zuerlein	10.00
DEF	Cardinals	8.66	Cardinals	8.66

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 35.50 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 16 – 22, 2021

Demich

109.91

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam

134.66

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.54 points left. Optimal 123.45 vs. actual 109.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	2.64	Dak Prescott	2.64
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	16.40	Deebo Samuel Sr.	16.40
WR	Tee Higgins	3.50	Rondale Moore	17.04
RB	Josh Jacobs	11.10	Josh Jacobs	11.10
RB	Michael Carter	7.50	Michael Carter	7.50
TE	Travis Kelce	18.80	Travis Kelce	18.80
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	15.30	Mark Ingram II	15.30
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	9.40	Michael Gallup	9.40
K	Chris Boswell	14.00	Chris Boswell	14.00
DEF	49ers	11.27	49ers	11.27

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 18.80 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Diontae Johnson scored 25.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 134.66 vs. actual 134.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	21.28	Tom Brady	21.28
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.20	Marvin Jones Jr.	9.20
WR	Diontae Johnson	25.10	Diontae Johnson	25.10
RB	Devonta Freeman	20.00	Devonta Freeman	20.00
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	12.80	Ezekiel Elliott	12.80
TE	Dan Arnold	0.00	Dan Arnold	0.00
W/R/T	A.J. Green	11.80	A.J. Green	11.80
W/R/T	Mike Evans	20.30	Mike Evans	20.30
K	Greg Joseph	8.00	Greg Joseph	8.00
DEF	Dolphins	6.18	Dolphins	6.18

Carried by One Guy: Diontae Johnson, 25.10 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 16 – 22, 2021

Krajcik

109.84

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Niz

121.69

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.98 points left. Optimal 115.82 vs. actual 109.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	15.64	Jimmy Garoppolo	15.64
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	13.00	Ja'Marr Chase	13.00
WR	Rashod Bateman	5.90	Rashod Bateman	5.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	24.90	Christian McCaffrey	24.90
RB	James Conner	20.90	James Conner	20.90
TE	George Kittle	13.40	George Kittle	13.40
W/R/T	Cole Beasley	6.30	Cole Beasley	6.30
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	3.80	Tony Pollard	9.78
K	Matt Prater	6.00	Matt Prater	6.00
DEF	Packers	0.00	Packers	0.00

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 24.90 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kirk Cousins scored 27.24; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 121.69 vs. actual 121.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	27.24	Kirk Cousins	27.24
WR	Adam Thielen	22.20	Adam Thielen	22.20
WR	Albert Wilson	4.54	Albert Wilson	4.54
RB	Devin Singletary	7.30	Devin Singletary	7.30
RB	Patrick Taylor Jr.	1.10	Patrick Taylor Jr.	1.10
TE	Mark Andrews	15.30	Mark Andrews	15.30
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	14.20	Jarvis Landry	14.20
W/R/T	Marquez Callaway	9.60	Marquez Callaway	9.60
K	Justin Tucker	10.00	Justin Tucker	10.00
DEF	Bears	10.21	Bears	10.21

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 27.24 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 16 – 22, 2021

Big Hut

176.77

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

126.61

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.50 points left. Optimal 191.27 vs. actual 176.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	36.28	Justin Herbert	36.28
WR	Tyreek Hill	20.00	Tyreek Hill	20.00
WR	Mike Williams	20.70	Mike Williams	20.70
RB	J.D. McKissic	6.00	J.D. McKissic	6.00
RB	Jonathan Taylor	55.40	Jonathan Taylor	55.40
TE	Hunter Henry	4.50	Hunter Henry	4.50
W/R/T	Mike Davis	5.10	Miles Sanders	7.40
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	2.20	Chase Claypool	14.40
K	Nick Folk	15.00	Nick Folk	15.00
DEF	Colts	11.59	Colts	11.59

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 55.40 points (31.3% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 130.31 vs. actual 126.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	9.02	Joe Burrow	9.02
WR	Davante Adams	32.50	Davante Adams	32.50
WR	Kendrick Bourne	8.90	Kendrick Bourne	8.90
RB	Joe Mixon	26.30	Joe Mixon	26.30
RB	Ty Johnson	2.30	Samaje Perine	5.10
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	5.90	Kyle Pitts Sr.	5.90
W/R/T	C.J. Uzomah	2.90	Nyheim Miller-Hines	3.62
W/R/T	Nyheim Miller-Hines	3.62	Boston Scott	3.80
K	Daniel Carlson	7.00	Daniel Carlson	7.00
DEF	Patriots	28.17	Patriots	28.17

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 32.50 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jonathan Taylor scored 55.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 16 – 22, 2021

Nevans

111.44

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

129.67

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.70 points left. Optimal 119.14 vs. actual 111.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	16.16	Josh Allen	16.16
WR	T.Y. Hilton	4.60	Tyler Boyd	12.30
WR	A.J. Brown	9.80	A.J. Brown	9.80
RB	Nick Chubb	24.40	Nick Chubb	24.40
RB	David Montgomery	7.70	David Montgomery	7.70
TE	Evan Engram	3.20	Evan Engram	3.20
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	5.60	Emmanuel Sanders	5.60
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	31.60	Elijah Moore	31.60
K	Ryan Succop	12.00	Ryan Succop	12.00
DEF	Bills	-3.62	Bills	-3.62

Carried by One Guy: Elijah Moore, 31.60 points (27.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Zach Ertz scored 28.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.90 points left. Optimal 145.57 vs. actual 129.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	17.52	Tua Tagovailoa	17.52
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	19.20	Chris Godwin Jr.	19.20
WR	DeVonta Smith	10.10	DeVonta Smith	10.10
RB	James Robinson	11.80	James Robinson	11.80
RB	Najee Harris	16.90	Najee Harris	16.90
TE	Zach Ertz	28.80	Zach Ertz	28.80
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	7.90	Rob Gronkowski	13.10
W/R/T	Deonte Harty	4.90	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	15.60
K	Randy Bullock	0.00	Randy Bullock	0.00
DEF	Buccaneers	12.55	Buccaneers	12.55

Carried by One Guy: Zach Ertz, 28.80 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 16 – 22, 2021

Martin

75.58

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Kev

143.26

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.00 points left. Optimal 103.58 vs. actual 75.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	7.50	Cam Newton	26.16
WR	Christian Kirk	4.50	Brandon Aiyuk	21.52
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	21.52	Laviska Shenault Jr.	8.00
RB	D'Onta Foreman	5.00	D'Onta Foreman	5.00
RB	Damien Harris	7.50	Damien Harris	7.50
TE	Dallas Goedert	11.20	Dallas Goedert	11.20
W/R/T	Marcus Johnson	0.46	Jordan Howard	6.30
W/R/T	Dawson Knox	14.00	Dawson Knox	14.00
K	Younghoe Koo	0.00	Younghoe Koo	0.00
DEF	Saints	3.90	Saints	3.90

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Aiyuk, 21.52 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.20 points left. Optimal 147.46 vs. actual 143.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	7.68	Daniel Jones	7.68
WR	Tyler Lockett	17.50	Tyler Lockett	17.50
WR	Justin Jefferson	39.20	Justin Jefferson	39.20
RB	David Johnson	6.40	David Johnson	6.40
RB	Austin Ekeler	41.50	Austin Ekeler	41.50
TE	Cole Kmet	2.20	Cole Kmet	2.20
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	5.70	Russell Gage Jr.	9.90
W/R/T	Kadarius Toney	11.00	Kadarius Toney	11.00
K	Michael Badgley	11.00	Michael Badgley	11.00
DEF	Titans	1.08	Titans	1.08

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 41.50 points (29.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	7–4	6.077	+6.0	+0.462	3 / 1
Martin	4–7	3.462	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Miller	6–5	6.615	-6.0	-0.462	1 / 3
Demich	9–2	6.462	+2.0	+0.154	2 / 0
Krajcik	8–3	7.308	-2.0	-0.154	2 / 2
Big Hut	8–3	7.538	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 2
Niz	4–7	3.923	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Josh	4–7	4.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	9–2	6.231	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Fischer	6–5	6.769	-1.0	-0.077	0 / 2
Nevans	4–7	4.308	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Joe Shore	4–7	5.308	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	3–8	4.462	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	1–10	3.615	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2

2021 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Kev lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11