2021 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 9 – 15, 2021

j-mart

84.49

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Niz

84.40

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.00 points left. Optimal 85.49 vs. actual 84.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	18.62	Ryan Tannehill	18.62
WR	Zach Pascal	2.90	Zach Pascal	2.90
WR	DJ Moore	6.40	DJ Moore	6.40
RB	Leonard Fournette	17.20	Leonard Fournette	17.20
RB	Jeremy McNichols	1.80	Jeff Wilson Jr.	2.80
TE	Darren Waller	6.40	Darren Waller	6.40
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	17.80	Keenan Allen	17.80
W/R/T	Jamison Crowder	5.00	Jamison Crowder	5.00
K	Matt Gay	4.00	Matt Gay	4.00
DEF	Chargers	4.37	Chargers	4.37

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Tannehill, 18.62 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.82 points left. Optimal 105.22 vs. actual 84.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	5.64	Kirk Cousins	17.46
WR	Adam Thielen	11.50	Adam Thielen	11.50
WR	Tim Patrick	4.40	Jarvis Landry	6.60
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	4.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.60
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.60	Devin Singletary	11.90
TE	Mark Andrews	18.30	Mark Andrews	18.30
W/R/T	Devin Singletary	11.90	Van Jefferson	8.40
W/R/T	Van Jefferson	8.40	Marquez Callaway	11.70
K	Justin Tucker	5.00	Justin Tucker	5.00
DEF	Rams	1.76	Rams	1.76

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mark Andrews, 18.30 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ryan Tannehill scored 18.62; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 9 – 15, 2021

Krajcik

133.17

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Big Hut

139.53

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.10 points left. Optimal 144.27 vs. actual 133.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	15.38	Jimmy Garoppolo	15.38
WR	Cole Beasley	3.50	Hollywood Brown	9.70
WR	Hollywood Brown	9.70	Rashod Bateman	14.00
RB	Christian McCaffrey	26.10	Christian McCaffrey	26.10
RB	James Conner	15.40	James Conner	15.40
TE	George Kittle	16.00	George Kittle	16.00
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	8.10	Tony Pollard	16.38
W/R/T	Tony Pollard	16.38	Chuba Hubbard	8.70
K	Matt Prater	5.00	Matt Prater	5.00
DEF	Packers	17.61	Packers	17.61

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 26.10 points (19.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 27.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.24 points left. Optimal 161.77 vs. actual 139.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	12.00	Derek Carr	18.24
WR	Tyreek Hill	27.50	Tyreek Hill	27.50
WR	Mike Williams	7.30	Mike Williams	7.30
RB	J.D. McKissic	7.90	J.D. McKissic	7.90
RB	Jonathan Taylor	26.60	Jonathan Taylor	26.60
TE	Hunter Henry	19.70	Hunter Henry	19.70
W/R/T	Mike Davis	1.80	Noah Fant	10.90
W/R/T	Noah Fant	10.90	Bryan Edwards	17.80
K	Nick Folk	9.00	Nick Folk	9.00
DEF	Colts	16.83	Colts	16.83

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 27.50 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 9 – 15, 2021

Demich

155.71

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

88.39

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.82 points left. Optimal 167.53 vs. actual 155.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	26.34	Dak Prescott	26.34
WR	Michael Gallup	7.20	Jamal Agnew	17.52
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	30.30	Deebo Samuel Sr.	30.30
RB	Michael Carter	18.20	Michael Carter	18.20
RB	Elijah Mitchell	9.10	Elijah Mitchell	9.10
TE	Travis Kelce	21.90	Travis Kelce	21.90
W/R/T	Mark Ingram II	20.80	Mark Ingram II	20.80
W/R/T	Josh Jacobs	8.60	Amon-Ra St. Brown	10.10
K	Chris Boswell	10.00	Chris Boswell	10.00
DEF	Broncos	3.27	Broncos	3.27

Carried by One Guy: Deebo Samuel Sr., 30.30 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.60 points left. Optimal 95.99 vs. actual 88.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	0.68	Matt Ryan	0.68
WR	Davante Adams	14.80	Marvin Jones Jr.	5.50
WR	Courtland Sutton	4.90	Davante Adams	14.80
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	5.12	Nyheim Miller-Hines	5.12
RB	Ty Johnson	8.80	Ty Johnson	8.80
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	10.00	Kyle Pitts Sr.	10.00
W/R/T	Marvin Jones Jr.	5.50	Cooper Kupp	25.20
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	25.20	Boston Scott	12.50
K	Daniel Carlson	2.00	Daniel Carlson	2.00
DEF	Patriots	11.39	Patriots	11.39

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 25.20 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 9 – 15, 2021

Miller

107.53

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

78.64

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.30 points left. Optimal 134.83 vs. actual 107.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	18.42	Jalen Hurts	18.42
WR	DK Metcalf	5.60	Hunter Renfrow	17.60
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	12.10	Michael Pittman Jr.	12.10
RB	D'Andre Swift	18.50	D'Andre Swift	18.50
RB	Javonte Williams	6.90	Javonte Williams	6.90
TE	T.J. Hockenson	0.00	Pat Freiermuth	6.10
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	17.60	AJ Dillon	26.80
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	21.80	Antonio Gibson	21.80
K	Tyler Bass	8.00	Tyler Bass	8.00
DEF	Browns	-1.39	Browns	-1.39

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Gibson, 21.80 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.48 points left. Optimal 84.12 vs. actual 78.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	22.94	Josh Allen	22.94
WR	T.Y. Hilton	1.50	T.Y. Hilton	1.50
WR	A.J. Brown	3.30	A.J. Brown	3.30
RB	Melvin Gordon III	9.30	Melvin Gordon III	9.30
RB	Nick Chubb	0.00	Kenyan Drake	5.48
TE	Donald Parham Jr.	2.70	Donald Parham Jr.	2.70
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	7.10	Emmanuel Sanders	7.10
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	13.40	Elijah Moore	13.40
K	Ryan Succop	5.00	Ryan Succop	5.00
DEF	Bills	13.40	Bills	13.40

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 22.94 points (29.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 9 – 15, 2021

Martin

92.55

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

136.54

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.10 points left. Optimal 99.65 vs. actual 92.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	38.24	Patrick Mahomes	38.24
WR	Christian Kirk	12.80	Christian Kirk	12.80
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	5.60	Brandon Aiyuk	5.60
RB	Jordan Howard	8.30	Jordan Howard	8.30
RB	Zack Moss	8.70	Zack Moss	8.70
TE	Dallas Goedert	4.80	Dallas Goedert	4.80
W/R/T	Dawson Knox	2.70	D'Onta Foreman	9.80
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	5.10	Laviska Shenault Jr.	5.10
K	Younghoe Koo	3.00	Younghoe Koo	3.00
DEF	Saints	3.31	Saints	3.31

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 38.24 points (41.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.88 points left. Optimal 149.42 vs. actual 136.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Wentz	7.10	Carson Wentz	7.10
WR	Donovan Peoples-Jones	2.60	Jakobi Meyers	14.90
WR	DeVonta Smith	22.60	DeVonta Smith	22.60
RB	James Robinson	18.40	James Robinson	18.40
RB	Najee Harris	19.30	Najee Harris	19.30
TE	Zach Ertz	8.60	Zach Ertz	8.60
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	12.70	Deonte Harty	13.28
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	29.40	Rhamondre Stevenson	29.40
K	Randy Bullock	10.00	Randy Bullock	10.00
DEF	Buccaneers	5.84	Buccaneers	5.84

Carried by One Guy: Rhamondre Stevenson, 29.40 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 9 – 15, 2021

Adam

105.05

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Kev

79.35

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.10 points left. Optimal 121.15 vs. actual 105.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	13.00	Tom Brady	13.00
WR	A.J. Green	1.40	James Washington	9.50
WR	Diontae Johnson	13.30	Diontae Johnson	13.30
RB	Devonta Freeman	8.80	Devonta Freeman	8.80
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	20.76	Ezekiel Elliott	20.76
TE	Dan Arnold	13.70	Dan Arnold	13.70
W/R/T	Adrian Peterson	3.00	Mike Evans	14.20
W/R/T	Mike Evans	14.20	Tyler Higbee	11.00
K	Greg Joseph	10.00	Greg Joseph	10.00
DEF	Steelers	6.89	Steelers	6.89

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 20.76 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.32 points left. Optimal 87.67 vs. actual 79.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	9.82	Matthew Stafford	9.82
WR	Tyler Lockett	4.30	Tyler Lockett	4.30
WR	Justin Jefferson	24.90	Justin Jefferson	24.90
RB	Austin Ekeler	14.90	Austin Ekeler	14.90
RB	Rashaad Penny	0.00	Rashaad Penny	0.00
TE	Ricky Seals-Jones	6.00	Ricky Seals-Jones	6.00
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	3.80	Odell Beckham Jr.	3.80
W/R/T	Russell Gage Jr.	0.00	Kalif Raymond	8.32
K	Michael Badgley	9.00	Michael Badgley	9.00
DEF	Titans	6.63	Titans	6.63

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 24.90 points (31.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 9 – 15, 2021

Josh

119.25

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

103.02

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 128.05 vs. actual 119.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	10.48	Aaron Rodgers	10.48
WR	Terry McLaurin	11.90	Terry McLaurin	11.90
WR	CeeDee Lamb	28.98	CeeDee Lamb	28.98
RB	Dalvin Cook	20.80	Dalvin Cook	20.80
RB	Myles Gaskin	5.50	D'Ernest Johnson	22.70
TE	Mike Gesicki	0.00	Jared Cook	2.00
W/R/T	D'Ernest Johnson	22.70	Corey Davis	12.30
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	11.10	Jerry Jeudy	11.10
K	Brandon McManus	5.00	Brandon McManus	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	2.79	Cardinals	2.79

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 28.98 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 53.70 points left. Optimal 156.72 vs. actual 103.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	15.42	Lamar Jackson	15.42
WR	Amari Cooper	9.10	Amari Cooper	9.10
WR	Stefon Diggs	32.20	Stefon Diggs	32.20
RB	Brandon Bolden	10.28	Brandon Bolden	10.28
RB	Le'Veon Bell	0.10	Darrel Williams	31.40
TE	Dalton Schultz	2.40	Tyler Conklin	16.10
W/R/T	Mecole Hardman Jr.	5.00	Robbie Chosen	13.70
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	10.22	Jaylen Waddle	10.22
K	Harrison Butker	12.00	Harrison Butker	12.00
DEF	Ravens	6.30	Ravens	6.30

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 32.20 points (31.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: CeeDee Lamb scored 28.98; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–4	5.615	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Martin	4–6	3.462	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Miller	6–4	5.846	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Demich	9–1	6.231	+2.0	+0.154	2 / 0
Krajcik	8–2	7.154	-2.0	-0.154	2 / 2
Big Hut	7–3	6.538	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 2
Niz	3–7	3.538	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Josh	3–7	4.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	8–2	5.538	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Fischer	6–4	6.231	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	4–6	4.000	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Joe Shore	3–7	4.692	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	2–8	3.538	-2.5	-0.192	1 / 2
Horgan	1–9	3.538	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2

2021 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10