2021 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 9 – 13, 2021

j-mart

161.30

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev

126.81

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.70 points left. Optimal 163.00 vs. actual 161.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	14.18	Ryan Tannehill	14.18
WR	Keenan Allen	21.00	Keenan Allen	21.00
WR	DJ Moore	15.58	DJ Moore	15.58
RB	Alvin Kamara	18.10	Alvin Kamara	18.10
RB	Kareem Hunt	17.10	Kareem Hunt	17.10
TE	Darren Waller	28.50	Darren Waller	28.50
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	9.20	Leonard Fournette	10.90
W/R/T	Ty'Son Williams	18.40	Ty'Son Williams	18.40
K	Matt Gay	11.00	Matt Gay	11.00
DEF	Broncos	8.24	Broncos	8.24

Carried by One Guy: Darren Waller, 28.50 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.40 points left. Optimal 140.21 vs. actual 126.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	26.34	Matthew Stafford	26.34
WR	Julio Jones	5.90	Marvin Jones Jr.	18.70
WR	Justin Jefferson	12.54	Justin Jefferson	12.54
RB	Chris Carson	12.70	Chris Carson	12.70
RB	Austin Ekeler	11.70	Kenny Gainwell	12.30
TE	Logan Thomas	12.00	Logan Thomas	12.00
W/R/T	Antonio Brown	25.70	Antonio Brown	25.70
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	13.60	Sammy Watkins	13.60
K	Graham Gano	1.00	Graham Gano	1.00
DEF	Vikings	5.33	Vikings	5.33

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 26.34 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 9 – 13, 2021

Martin

122.60

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam

129.21

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.04 points left. Optimal 151.64 vs. actual 122.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	35.28	Patrick Mahomes	35.28
WR	Robert Woods	12.40	Robert Woods	12.40
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	0.14	Christian Kirk	24.00
RB	Derrick Henry	10.70	Derrick Henry	10.70
RB	Damien Harris	13.70	Damien Harris	13.70
TE	Dallas Goedert	14.20	Dallas Goedert	14.20
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	12.10	Jalen Reagor	17.28
W/R/T	Laviska Shenault Jr.	12.90	Laviska Shenault Jr.	12.90
K	Younghoe Koo	4.00	Younghoe Koo	4.00
DEF	Dolphins	7.18	Dolphins	7.18

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 35.28 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 29.16; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.70 points left. Optimal 146.91 vs. actual 129.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	29.16	Tom Brady	29.16
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	26.30	DeAndre Hopkins	26.30
WR	Mike Evans	5.40	Diontae Johnson	14.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	5.90	Latavius Murray	8.80
RB	Ronald Jones	-0.60	Carlos Hyde	7.80
TE	Tyler Higbee	11.80	Tyler Higbee	11.80
W/R/T	Chase Edmonds	14.60	David Johnson	11.80
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	14.60	Chase Edmonds	14.60
K	Jason Sanders	6.00	Jason Sanders	6.00
DEF	Steelers	16.05	Steelers	16.05

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 29.16 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 9 – 13, 2021

Miller

137.39

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Niz

119.76

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.10 points left. Optimal 146.49 vs. actual 137.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	28.76	Jalen Hurts	28.76
WR	DK Metcalf	16.00	DK Metcalf	16.00
WR	Darnell Mooney	7.60	Darnell Mooney	7.60
RB	D'Andre Swift	24.40	D'Andre Swift	24.40
RB	Antonio Gibson	11.80	Antonio Gibson	11.80
TE	T.J. Hockenson	25.70	T.J. Hockenson	25.70
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	5.90	Damien Williams	8.00
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	5.10	Bryan Edwards	12.10
K	Tyler Bass	10.00	Tyler Bass	10.00
DEF	Buccaneers	2.13	Buccaneers	2.13

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 28.76 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.90 points left. Optimal 143.66 vs. actual 119.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	27.06	Russell Wilson	27.06
WR	Adam Thielen	30.20	Adam Thielen	30.20
WR	Allen Robinson	9.50	Nelson Agholor	18.20
RB	Raheem Mostert	2.00	Raheem Mostert	2.00
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	4.20	Aaron Jones Sr.	4.20
TE	Mark Andrews	5.00	Mark Andrews	5.00
W/R/T	Jarvis Landry	19.40	Jarvis Landry	19.40
W/R/T	Marquez Callaway	2.40	DJ Chark	17.60
K	Justin Tucker	11.00	Justin Tucker	11.00
DEF	Rams	9.00	Rams	9.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Adam Thielen, 30.20 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jalen Hurts scored 28.76; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 9 – 13, 2021

Demich

154.04

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh

123.54

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.30 points left. Optimal 165.34 vs. actual 154.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	29.42	Dak Prescott	29.42
WR	Calvin Ridley	10.10	Calvin Ridley	10.10
WR	Michael Gallup	7.60	Michael Gallup	7.60
RB	J.D. McKissic	0.80	James White	12.10
RB	Josh Jacobs	17.00	Josh Jacobs	17.00
TE	Travis Kelce	25.60	Travis Kelce	25.60
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	33.90	Deebo Samuel Sr.	33.90
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	15.80	Tee Higgins	15.80
K	Rodrigo Blankenship	3.00	Rodrigo Blankenship	3.00
DEF	Panthers	10.82	Panthers	10.82

Carried by One Guy: Deebo Samuel Sr., 33.90 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.80 points left. Optimal 125.34 vs. actual 123.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	1.32	Aaron Rodgers	1.32
WR	Terry McLaurin	10.20	CeeDee Lamb	25.64
WR	CeeDee Lamb	25.64	Gabe Davis	12.00
RB	Dalvin Cook	20.40	Dalvin Cook	20.40
RB	Myles Gaskin	12.60	Myles Gaskin	12.60
TE	Mike Gesicki	0.00	Mike Gesicki	0.00
W/R/T	Corey Davis	26.70	Corey Davis	26.70
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	13.20	Jerry Jeudy	13.20
K	Greg Zuerlein	10.00	Greg Zuerlein	10.00
DEF	Colts	3.48	Colts	3.48

Carried by One Guy: Corey Davis, 26.70 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deebo Samuel Sr. scored 33.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 9 – 13, 2021

Fischer

149.78

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

104.34

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 45.62 points left. Optimal 195.40 vs. actual 149.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	18.64	Joe Burrow	18.64
WR	Davante Adams	10.60	Cooper Kupp	25.80
WR	Cooper Kupp	25.80	Rondale Moore	11.72
RB	Joe Mixon	27.00	Joe Mixon	27.00
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	14.34	Nyheim Miller-Hines	14.34
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.10	Rob Gronkowski	29.00
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	26.30	Sterling Shepard	26.30
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	2.40	Jamaal Williams	25.00
K	Daniel Carlson	11.00	Daniel Carlson	11.00
DEF	Patriots	6.60	Patriots	6.60

Carried by One Guy: Joe Mixon, 27.00 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.40 points left. Optimal 128.74 vs. actual 104.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	17.20	Josh Allen	17.20
WR	Tyler Boyd	6.20	Emmanuel Sanders	9.20
WR	A.J. Brown	14.90	A.J. Brown	14.90
RB	Nick Chubb	22.10	Nick Chubb	22.10
RB	David Montgomery	20.80	David Montgomery	20.80
TE	Robert Tonyan	2.80	Robert Tonyan	2.80
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	9.20	Melvin Gordon III	22.80
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	0.70	Phillip Lindsay	8.50
K	Ryan Succop	7.00	Ryan Succop	7.00
DEF	Bills	3.44	Bills	3.44

Carried by One Guy: Nick Chubb, 22.10 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 9 – 13, 2021

Krajcik

152.72

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

149.05

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.70 points left. Optimal 161.42 vs. actual 152.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	33.56	Kyler Murray	33.56
WR	Hollywood Brown	19.40	Hollywood Brown	19.40
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	22.90	Ja'Marr Chase	22.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	27.70	Christian McCaffrey	27.70
RB	James Robinson	8.40	James Robinson	8.40
TE	George Kittle	11.80	George Kittle	11.80
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	20.20	Cole Beasley	14.00
W/R/T	James Conner	5.30	Brandin Cooks	20.20
K	Matt Prater	8.00	Matt Prater	8.00
DEF	Packers	-4.54	Packers	-4.54

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 33.56 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 155.95 vs. actual 149.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	21.08	Trevor Lawrence	21.08
WR	Tyler Lockett	28.00	Tyler Lockett	28.00
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	25.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	25.50
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	10.20	Kenyan Drake	12.00
RB	Najee Harris	5.90	Devin Singletary	11.00
TE	Austin Hooper	5.70	Austin Hooper	5.70
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	15.70	Darrell Henderson Jr.	15.70
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	19.10	DeVonta Smith	19.10
K	Harrison Butker	9.00	Harrison Butker	9.00
DEF	Commanders	8.87	Commanders	8.87

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Lockett, 28.00 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kyler Murray scored 33.56; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 9 – 13, 2021

Big Hut

149.85

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

130.98

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.20 points left. Optimal 162.05 vs. actual 149.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	15.38	Justin Herbert	15.38
WR	Tyreek Hill	39.10	Tyreek Hill	39.10
WR	Chase Claypool	10.00	Mike Williams	22.20
RB	Miles Sanders	17.30	Miles Sanders	17.30
RB	Jonathan Taylor	17.60	Jonathan Taylor	17.60
TE	Noah Fant	12.20	Noah Fant	12.20
W/R/T	Mike Davis	10.20	Mike Davis	10.20
W/R/T	Kenny Golladay	10.40	Kenny Golladay	10.40
K	Robbie Gould	14.00	Robbie Gould	14.00
DEF	Ravens	3.67	Ravens	3.67

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 39.10 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.40 points left. Optimal 131.38 vs. actual 130.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	18.00	Lamar Jackson	18.00
WR	Amari Cooper	40.90	Amari Cooper	40.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	15.90	Stefon Diggs	15.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	3.70	Saquon Barkley	3.70
RB	Boston Scott	0.00	Darrel Williams	0.40
TE	Jonnu Smith	9.80	Jonnu Smith	9.80
W/R/T	Robbie Chosen	12.70	Robbie Chosen	12.70
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	16.10	Jaylen Waddle	16.10
K	Jason Myers	4.00	Jason Myers	4.00
DEF	49ers	9.88	49ers	9.88

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 40.90 points (31.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 39.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	0–1	0.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–0	0.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–0	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–0	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–0	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	0–1	0.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	0–1	0.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–0	0.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Fischer	1–0	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	0–1	0.615	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	0–1	0.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	0–1	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2021 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1