2021 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 22 – 27, 2021

j-mart

71.04

Martin

95.73

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.10 points left. Optimal 79.14 vs. actual 71.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Taylor Heinicke	4.74	Taylor Heinicke	4.74
WR	Jalen Guyton	0.00	Keenan Allen	7.50
WR	Donovan Peoples-Jones	2.02	Donovan Peoples-Jones	2.02
RB	Alvin Kamara	7.90	Alvin Kamara	7.90
RB	Ronald Jones	16.10	Ronald Jones	16.10
TE	C.J. Uzomah	8.60	C.J. Uzomah	8.60
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	0.00	Ricky Seals-Jones	0.60
W/R/T	DJ Moore	10.50	DJ Moore	10.50
K	Matt Gay	11.00	Matt Gay	11.00
DEF	Broncos	10.18	Broncos	10.18

Carried by One Guy: Ronald Jones, 16.10 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 40.80 points left. Optimal 136.53 vs. actual 95.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	22.32	Patrick Mahomes	22.32
WR	Christian Kirk	11.80	Christian Kirk	11.80
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	14.24	Brandon Aiyuk	14.24
RB	D'Onta Foreman	7.70	D'Onta Foreman	7.70
RB	Rashaad Penny	21.50	Rashaad Penny	21.50
TE	Dawson Knox	9.10	Dawson Knox	9.10
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	0.00	Damien Harris	30.30
W/R/T	Dallas Goedert	4.80	Joshua Palmer	15.30
K	Harrison Butker	0.00	Harrison Butker	0.00
DEF	Jaguars	4.27	Jaguars	4.27

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 22.32 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 22 – 27, 2021

Niz

119.37

Joe Shore

116.47

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.66 points left. Optimal 129.03 vs. actual 119.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	16.54	Kirk Cousins	18.30
WR	Adam Thielen	7.00	Adam Thielen	7.00
WR	Marquez Callaway	8.60	Marquez Callaway	8.60
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	9.88	Cordarrelle Patterson	9.88
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	13.70	Aaron Jones Sr.	13.70
TE	Mark Andrews	28.50	Mark Andrews	28.50
W/R/T	Devin Singletary	18.80	Jarvis Landry	9.50
W/R/T	Van Jefferson	1.60	Devin Singletary	18.80
K	Justin Tucker	3.00	Justin Tucker	3.00
DEF	Rams	11.75	Rams	11.75

Carried by One Guy: Mark Andrews, 28.50 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.80 points left. Optimal 131.27 vs. actual 116.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	14.56	Ryan Tannehill	14.56
WR	Julio Jones	1.70	Josh Reynolds	5.60
WR	DeVonta Smith	19.00	DeVonta Smith	19.00
RB	James Robinson	1.00	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	10.10
RB	Najee Harris	16.00	Najee Harris	16.00
TE	Rob Gronkowski	3.30	Rob Gronkowski	3.30
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	13.40	Zach Ertz	13.40
W/R/T	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	10.10	Jakobi Meyers	11.90
K	Evan McPherson	11.00	Evan McPherson	11.00
DEF	Cowboys	26.41	Cowboys	26.41

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cowboys, 26.41 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mark Andrews scored 28.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Consolation

Dec 22 – 27, 2021

Josh

117.54

Kev

92.86

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.80 points left. Optimal 124.34 vs. actual 117.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	19.98	Aaron Rodgers	19.98
WR	Terry McLaurin	7.00	Terry McLaurin	7.00
WR	Jerry Jeudy	9.00	Jerry Jeudy	9.00
RB	Sony Michel	22.50	Sony Michel	22.50
RB	Alexander Mattison	16.00	Alexander Mattison	16.00
TE	Mike Gesicki	5.20	Mike Gesicki	5.20
W/R/T	Myles Gaskin	2.60	CeeDee Lamb	10.82
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	10.82	Jared Cook	9.40
K	Greg Zuerlein	8.00	Greg Zuerlein	8.00
DEF	Buccaneers	16.44	Buccaneers	16.44

Carried by One Guy: Sony Michel, 22.50 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.80 points left. Optimal 93.66 vs. actual 92.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	6.68	Matthew Stafford	6.68
WR	Tyler Lockett	6.00	Justin Jefferson	21.60
WR	Justin Jefferson	21.60	Kadarius Toney	6.80
RB	David Johnson	0.00	David Johnson	0.00
RB	JaMycal Hasty	5.90	JaMycal Hasty	5.90
TE	Cole Kmet	8.90	Cole Kmet	8.90
W/R/T	Antonio Brown	22.10	Antonio Brown	22.10
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.70	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.70
K	Randy Bullock	9.00	Randy Bullock	9.00
DEF	Panthers	-1.02	Panthers	-1.02

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 22.10 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 22 – 27, 2021

Miller

150.78

Demich

174.85

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.10 points left. Optimal 156.88 vs. actual 150.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	16.66	Jalen Hurts	16.66
WR	DK Metcalf	12.10	DK Metcalf	12.10
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	16.50	Michael Pittman Jr.	16.50
RB	Justin Jackson	34.20	Justin Jackson	34.20
RB	AJ Dillon	8.60	Antonio Gibson	13.80
TE	Gerald Everett	16.80	Gerald Everett	16.80
W/R/T	Hunter Renfrow	13.12	Hunter Renfrow	13.12
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	10.00	Darnell Mooney	10.90
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Eagles	16.80	Eagles	16.80

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jackson, 34.20 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tee Higgins scored 45.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.00 points left. Optimal 202.85 vs. actual 174.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	33.30	Dak Prescott	33.30
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	30.10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	30.10
WR	Tee Higgins	45.40	Tee Higgins	45.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	13.40	Rex Burkhead	30.90
RB	Michael Carter	16.40	Michael Carter	16.40
TE	Hunter Henry	1.90	Hunter Henry	1.90
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	7.30	K.J. Osborn	17.80
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	26.00	Amon-Ra St. Brown	26.00
K	Chris Boswell	4.00	Chris Boswell	4.00
DEF	Chargers	-2.95	Chargers	-2.95

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 45.40 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 22 – 27, 2021

Krajcik

94.39

Big Hut

93.56

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.90 points left. Optimal 105.29 vs. actual 94.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	21.90	Kyler Murray	21.90
WR	Hollywood Brown	9.40	Hollywood Brown	9.40
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	21.50	Ja'Marr Chase	21.50
RB	Ameer Abdullah	5.42	Ameer Abdullah	5.42
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.	1.70	Tony Pollard	7.00
TE	George Kittle	4.10	George Kittle	4.10
W/R/T	Tony Pollard	7.00	Rashod Bateman	12.60
W/R/T	Nico Collins	12.30	Nico Collins	12.30
K	Daniel Carlson	6.00	Daniel Carlson	6.00
DEF	Seahawks	5.07	Seahawks	5.07

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 21.90 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 93.56 vs. actual 93.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	18.94	Justin Herbert	18.94
WR	Tyreek Hill	3.90	Tyreek Hill	3.90
WR	Kenny Golladay	5.20	Kenny Golladay	5.20
RB	Miles Sanders	5.80	Miles Sanders	5.80
RB	Jonathan Taylor	12.80	Jonathan Taylor	12.80
TE	Noah Fant	6.00	Noah Fant	6.00
W/R/T	Mike Davis	4.50	Mike Davis	4.50
W/R/T	Chase Claypool	8.10	Chase Claypool	8.10
K	Nick Folk	3.00	Nick Folk	3.00
DEF	Dolphins	25.32	Dolphins	25.32

Carried by One Guy: Dolphins, 25.32 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kyler Murray scored 21.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 22 – 27, 2021

Adam

112.20

Fischer

172.45

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.20 points left. Optimal 132.40 vs. actual 112.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	14.38	Tom Brady	14.38
WR	A.J. Green	4.30	Marvin Jones Jr.	15.40
WR	Diontae Johnson	15.10	Diontae Johnson	15.10
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	17.20	Ezekiel Elliott	17.20
RB	Chase Edmonds	26.70	Chase Edmonds	26.70
TE	Tyler Conklin	8.40	Tyler Conklin	8.40
W/R/T	Mike Evans	0.00	Devonta Freeman	10.00
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	10.00	Tyler Higbee	9.10
K	Greg Joseph	10.00	Greg Joseph	10.00
DEF	49ers	6.12	49ers	6.12

Carried by One Guy: Chase Edmonds, 26.70 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.58 points left. Optimal 187.03 vs. actual 172.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	40.10	Joe Burrow	40.10
WR	Kendrick Bourne	5.30	Davante Adams	35.40
WR	Gabe Davis	0.00	Kendrick Bourne	5.30
RB	Joe Mixon	31.50	Joe Mixon	31.50
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	3.12	Boston Scott	10.10
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	18.20	Kyle Pitts Sr.	18.20
W/R/T	Davante Adams	35.40	Cooper Kupp	23.30
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	23.30	D'Ernest Johnson	7.60
K	Matt Prater	2.00	Matt Prater	2.00
DEF	Packers	13.53	Packers	13.53

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 40.10 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

2021 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Consolation

Niz lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Consolation

Josh lineup

Kev lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Playoff

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Playoff

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup