2021 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 14 – 21, 2021

Martin

128.01

Niz

124.12

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.24 points left. Optimal 146.25 vs. actual 128.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	31.60	Patrick Mahomes	31.60
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	4.76	DeVante Parker	16.80
WR	Laviska Shenault Jr.	8.90	Laviska Shenault Jr.	8.90
RB	D'Onta Foreman	17.50	Jordan Howard	6.90
RB	Rashaad Penny	6.40	D'Onta Foreman	17.50
TE	Dawson Knox	7.80	Dawson Knox	7.80
W/R/T	DeVante Parker	16.80	Christian Kirk	24.40
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	24.40	Dallas Goedert	22.50
K	Harrison Butker	8.00	Harrison Butker	8.00
DEF	Jaguars	1.85	Jaguars	1.85

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 31.60 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.10 points left. Optimal 136.22 vs. actual 124.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	10.48	Kirk Cousins	10.48
WR	Adam Thielen	0.00	Nelson Agholor	7.40
WR	Marquez Callaway	19.20	Marquez Callaway	19.20
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson	4.30	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.18
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.18	Devin Singletary	16.60
TE	Mark Andrews	37.60	Mark Andrews	37.60
W/R/T	Devin Singletary	16.60	Jamison Crowder	9.00
W/R/T	Van Jefferson	5.30	Van Jefferson	5.30
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Rams	9.46	Rams	9.46

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mark Andrews, 37.60 points (30.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 31.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Consolation

Dec 14 – 21, 2021

Joe Shore

92.62

Kev

97.98

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.22 points left. Optimal 126.84 vs. actual 92.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	9.92	Derek Carr	10.14
WR	Julio Jones	0.00	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.90
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.90	Josh Reynolds	18.80
RB	James Robinson	17.80	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	9.00
RB	Najee Harris	4.60	James Robinson	17.80
TE	Rob Gronkowski	4.90	Zach Ertz	13.40
W/R/T	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	9.00	Jakobi Meyers	11.30
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	7.00	DeVonta Smith	7.00
K	Evan McPherson	12.00	Evan McPherson	12.00
DEF	Cowboys	16.50	Cowboys	16.50

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: James Robinson, 17.80 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Russell Gage Jr. scored 23.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.14 points left. Optimal 105.12 vs. actual 97.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	15.46	Matthew Stafford	15.46
WR	Tyler Lockett	0.00	Darius Slayton	4.30
WR	Justin Jefferson	14.70	Justin Jefferson	14.70
RB	Austin Ekeler	18.20	David Johnson	3.70
RB	JaMycal Hasty	0.86	Austin Ekeler	18.20
TE	Cole Kmet	13.10	Cole Kmet	13.10
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	1.70	Odell Beckham Jr.	1.70
W/R/T	Russell Gage Jr.	23.10	Russell Gage Jr.	23.10
K	Randy Bullock	6.00	Randy Bullock	6.00
DEF	Panthers	4.86	Panthers	4.86

Carried by One Guy: Russell Gage Jr., 23.10 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 14 – 21, 2021

Miller

99.81

Adam

68.17

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.46 points left. Optimal 137.27 vs. actual 99.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Taysom Hill	9.46	Jalen Hurts	27.64
WR	Hunter Renfrow	6.82	DK Metcalf	11.20
WR	Darnell Mooney	11.60	Darnell Mooney	11.60
RB	AJ Dillon	10.50	Jeff Wilson Jr.	21.90
RB	Javonte Williams	12.10	Javonte Williams	12.10
TE	Pat Freiermuth	7.70	Pat Freiermuth	7.70
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	11.20	Craig Reynolds	14.70
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	18.50	Antonio Gibson	18.50
K	Robbie Gould	7.00	Robbie Gould	7.00
DEF	Eagles	4.93	Eagles	4.93

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Gibson, 18.50 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.22 points left. Optimal 78.39 vs. actual 68.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	4.76	Tom Brady	4.76
WR	A.J. Green	10.40	A.J. Green	10.40
WR	Diontae Johnson	9.80	Diontae Johnson	9.80
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	16.20	Latavius Murray	6.10
RB	Chase Edmonds	5.30	Ezekiel Elliott	16.20
TE	Tyler Conklin	1.70	Tyler Conklin	1.70
W/R/T	Mike Evans	2.40	Dontrell Hilliard	9.90
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	3.40	Rondale Moore	5.32
K	Greg Joseph	5.00	Greg Joseph	5.00
DEF	49ers	9.21	49ers	9.21

Carried by One Guy: Ezekiel Elliott, 16.20 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 14 – 21, 2021

Big Hut

138.09

Fischer

131.34

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.32 points left. Optimal 162.41 vs. actual 138.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	23.04	Justin Herbert	23.04
WR	Tyreek Hill	34.80	Tyreek Hill	34.80
WR	Mike Williams	7.90	Kenny Golladay	8.30
RB	Mike Davis	2.10	Jeremy McNichols	8.10
RB	Jonathan Taylor	25.00	Jonathan Taylor	25.00
TE	Noah Fant	10.70	Noah Fant	10.70
W/R/T	Miles Sanders	18.60	Tim Patrick	13.20
W/R/T	Chase Claypool	1.90	Miles Sanders	18.60
K	Nick Folk	4.00	Nick Folk	4.00
DEF	Dolphins	10.05	Vikings	16.67

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 34.80 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.47 points left. Optimal 135.81 vs. actual 131.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	12.78	Jimmy Garoppolo	13.80
WR	Kendrick Bourne	9.30	Kendrick Bourne	9.30
WR	Gabe Davis	25.50	Gabe Davis	25.50
RB	Joe Mixon	7.00	Joe Mixon	7.00
RB	Nyheim Miller-Hines	8.20	Nyheim Miller-Hines	8.20
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	11.70	Kyle Pitts Sr.	11.70
W/R/T	Davante Adams	16.40	Davante Adams	16.40
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	36.70	Cooper Kupp	36.70
K	Matt Prater	4.00	Matt Prater	4.00
DEF	Packers	-0.24	Patriots	3.21

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 36.70 points (27.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 34.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

2021 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Martin lineup

Niz lineup

Consolation

Joe Shore lineup

Kev lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Playoff

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup